NBA Predicted Player Statistics · Thu, Oct 29
NBA forecasts are graded after every game. The favoured-side record is published as counts on NBA results; it is not judged before 300 graded games.
Past slate · Thu, Oct 29. Every Official Forecast figure here was frozen before that day’s tip-offs and is shown exactly as frozen, never updated after a game. Today’s board
Forecast vs. Actual
Forecast: the Official Forecast, frozen before tip-off and never changed. Actual: the final box score (ESPN), after the official final. A dash means did not play — never a zero.
Every rostered player without a projection is listed as “Projection unavailable” with the reason the Official Forecast recorded.
61 of 61 players · order: expected minutes
· 41 without a projection| Player | Team | Min | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | CLE | 39.2 | 36 | 18.6 | 24 | 4.9 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1.9 | 3 |
| Donovan Mitchell | CLE | 38.6 | 33 | 29.1 | 22 | 5.1 | 3 | 3.3 | 3 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Evan Mobley | CLE | 38.6 | 33 | 17.1 | 11 | 7.8 | 4 | 4.3 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Nique Clifford | SAC | 35.7 | 4 | 15.6 | 0 | 5.2 | 0 | 4.2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jrue Holiday | POR | 33 | 24 | 14.9 | 6 | 5.1 | 6 | 5.7 | 4 | 2.2 | 2 |
| Jarrett Allen | CLE | 32.4 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Deni Avdija | POR | 32.4 | 32 | 23.9 | 24 | 5.1 | 9 | 5.6 | 7 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Zach LaVine | SAC | 31.8 | 39 | 19 | 21 | 2.7 | 3 | 2.2 | 5 | 2.5 | 3 |
| Toumani Camara | POR | 30.9 | 26 | 9.9 | 13 | 4.1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 2.2 | 3 |
| Peyton Watson | CLE | 30.7 | 22 | 14.3 | 4 | 4.7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Daeqwon Plowden | SAC | 30.2 | DNP | 14.1 | — | 2.7 | — | 1.6 | — | 2.8 | — |
| Domantas Sabonis | SAC | 30.1 | 40 | 15.5 | 9 | 11.1 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Precious Achiuwa | SAC | 29.8 | 41 | 15 | 24 | 8.3 | 9 | 2.1 | 2 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | ATL | 27.6 | 31 | 13.7 | 25 | 1.8 | 3 | 1.9 | 1 | 2.8 | 4 |
| Leaky Black | SAC | 27.3 | DNP | 4.4 | — | 4 | — | 1.1 | — | 0.7 | — |
| Jalen Johnson | ATL | 27 | 34 | 14.3 | 17 | 6.5 | 8 | 3.7 | 7 | 1.2 | 2 |
| Scoot Henderson | POR | 26.5 | 19 | 12.4 | 9 | 1.7 | 4 | 1.7 | 0 | 2.1 | 1 |
| De'Andre Hunter | SAC | 25.8 | 37 | 11.9 | 24 | 4.7 | 5 | 2.6 | 1 | 1.2 | 4 |
| Ja Morant | POR | 25.6 | 23 | 16.9 | 14 | 2.8 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 2 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | ATL | 25.2 | 33 | 9 | 29 | 4.9 | 12 | 1.3 | 2 | 1.1 | 4 |
| CJ McCollum | ATL | 24.2 | 31 | 14.7 | 5 | 2.4 | 3 | 2.2 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Jahmai Mashack | MEM | 23.5 | — | 7.3 | — | 2.8 | — | 3.5 | — | 0.5 | — |
| Trey Murphy III | NO | 23 | 32 | 10.6 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 1.8 | 3 | 1.4 | 2 |
| Dyson Daniels | ATL | 22.8 | 32 | 6.6 | 4 | 5.4 | 6 | 4.2 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Donovan Clingan | POR | 22.2 | 29 | 8.5 | 11 | 8.5 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Malik Monk | SAC | 22.1 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 1.6 | 1 | 4.1 | 1 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Sam Merrill | CLE | 21.8 | 27 | 8.7 | 16 | 0.9 | 2 | 1.1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Jeremiah Fears | NO | 21.3 | 29 | 15.2 | 22 | 2.6 | 8 | 3.1 | 13 | 1.2 | 3 |
| Saddiq Bey | NO | 21.2 | 24 | 13.1 | 10 | 2.6 | 4 | 1.2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Julian Reese | NO | 21.2 | DNP | 6.9 | — | 6.1 | — | 1.2 | — | 0 | — |
| Keshon Gilbert | ATL | 20 | — | 8 | — | 3.1 | — | 1.9 | — | 1 | — |
| Zion Williamson | NO | 19.7 | 31 | 12.1 | 22 | 3.3 | 6 | 1.8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wells | MEM | 19.5 | 25 | 9 | 10 | 2.3 | 1 | 1.2 | 0 | 1.4 | 2 |
| Micah Potter | POR | 19.4 | 9 | 10.9 | 1 | 5.9 | 2 | 1.1 | 0 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Zach Edey | MEM | 19.1 | 19 | 9.6 | 13 | 7.8 | 7 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.1 | 1 |
| Dejounte Murray | NO | 18.8 | — | 7.8 | — | 4 | — | 4.4 | — | 0.3 | — |
| Derik Queen | NO | 18.4 | 22 | 8.5 | 9 | 5.5 | 2 | 1.9 | 3 | 0.1 | 1 |
| Jalen Wilson | ATL | 18.2 | — | 7.9 | — | 3.1 | — | 1.9 | — | 0.6 | — |
| Robert Williams III | POR | 18.1 | — | 6.8 | — | 6.7 | — | 1.6 | — | 0.4 | — |
| Cedric Coward | MEM | 17.7 | 27 | 11.5 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 1.6 | 4 | 1.1 | 3 |
| Javon Small | MEM | 17.4 | — | 9.4 | — | 2 | — | 2.6 | — | 1.4 | — |
| GG Jackson | MEM | 17.4 | 21 | 11.8 | 12 | 2.9 | 7 | 1.5 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Ty Jerome | MEM | 16.8 | 24 | 14.4 | 10 | 2.1 | 2 | 4.2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | NO | 16.6 | 19 | 8.3 | 10 | 2.8 | 3 | 1.5 | 2 | 0.6 | 2 |
| Cam Spencer | MEM | 16.4 | 23 | 8.3 | 8 | 1.4 | 6 | 5.8 | 8 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Luguentz Dort | ATL | 16.1 | 22 | 3.6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0.8 | 2 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Jerami Grant | MEM | 16.1 | 27 | 7.9 | 2 | 1.3 | 1 | 0.2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Herbert Jones | NO | 16 | 32 | 4.6 | 16 | 1.2 | 4 | 1.7 | 1 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Taylor Hendricks | MEM | 16 | 3 | 6.2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Scotty Pippen Jr. | MEM | 15.7 | 14 | 8.5 | 2 | 1.6 | 0 | 3.5 | 0 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | MEM | 15.1 | 3 | 13.9 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.8 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jock Landale | ATL | 15 | 15 | 6.6 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 1.2 | 1 | 0.8 | 2 |
| Jordan Poole · Day-To-Day | NO | 15 | — | 7.9 | — | 1 | — | 1.8 | — | 1.5 | — |
| Bryce McGowens | NO | 13.9 | 6 | 4.9 | 4 | 1.2 | 1 | 0.8 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Quinten Post | MEM | 12.8 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 2.6 | 4 | 0.9 | 0 | 0.9 | 2 |
| Karlo Matkovic | NO | 12 | 28 | 4.2 | 12 | 2.4 | 4 | 0.3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Asa Newell | ATL | 11.2 | DNP | 2.9 | — | 1.8 | — | 0.3 | — | 0.1 | — |
| DeAndre Jordan | NO | 11 | DNP | 2.7 | — | 4 | — | 0.5 | — | 0 | — |
| Dorian Finney-Smith | ATL | 10.8 | DNP | 2.2 | — | 1.3 | — | 0.3 | — | 0.4 | — |
| Branden Carlson | POR | 10.6 | 12 | 3.9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Jaylon Tyson | CLE | 10.1 | 18 | 1.7 | 3 | 1.8 | 6 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.1 | 1 |
Model vs. sportsbook line · NBA player props
236 of 427 projections have a qualified sportsbook line. Direction not shown: 33.
CLE @ ATL: 19 OVER 65 UNDER97 of 126 projections have a qualified sportsbook lineSee the lines →
SAC @ NO: 12 OVER 46 UNDER67 of 147 projections have a qualified sportsbook lineSee the lines →
MEM @ POR: 18 OVER 40 UNDER 3 NEUTRAL72 of 154 projections have a qualified sportsbook lineSee the lines →
- OVER means our model's projection is above the sportsbook's line.
- UNDER means our model's projection is below the sportsbook's line.
- NEUTRAL means our model's projection is the same as the sportsbook's line.
- Difference is our projection minus the line: 36.0 against 29.5 is +6.5. A gap smaller than 0.05 shows as +0.0 or −0.0 and keeps its direction.
- A line older than 6 hours, taken after the game started, not matched to the player and game, suspended, or for a statistic we do not project is shown with the reason and is not compared.
- Over and Under prices are the sportsbook's American odds. A dash means the sportsbook did not post that price; it is never a zero.
- Comparison not shown means the model and the sportsbook line are both shown without a direction, because that statistic's forecast has not yet met our calibration standard.
- It is a comparison, not a bet recommendation or a probability, and it guarantees nothing.
Sportsbook availability varies by state.
Technical detailsFreeze times, receipts and method · 3 games
Model: nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1. Source: v0.1 roster-gated player simulation (nba-preseason-experimental-v0.1) — medians of 10000 simulated games. PRA, P+R and P+A: sum over the same simulated draws (v0 engine; components independent within a player) — the median of each simulated game’s sum, so it need not equal the sum of the separate medians. Players with at least 10 expected minutes who are not ruled out. The default order is expected minutes; a column sort is the reader’s own. Game status is read-only, from the schedule and finals record (Started: tipped off, no final recorded yet); it never changes a frozen figure. Forecast vs. Actual: PRA, P+R and P+A actuals add up the actual points, rebounds and assists; “awaiting final” means the game has no official final yet; “Played, no projection” and “Projection unavailable” mark players without an Official Forecast projection — their actuals are shown, no forecast is invented. Forecast and Actual are compared per player only.
- Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks: tip-off Oct 29, 8:00 PM ET · frozen Oct 29, 12:01 PM ET · receipt 6f58ab238ae4Elo-derived game-winner estimate: CLE 45% · ATL 55% · Final · NBA hub schedule
- Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans: tip-off Oct 29, 8:00 PM ET · frozen Oct 29, 12:01 PM ET · receipt 5132f24fb326Elo-derived game-winner estimate: SAC 37% · NO 63% · Final · NBA hub schedule
- Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers: tip-off Oct 29, 10:00 PM ET · frozen Oct 29, 12:01 PM ET · receipt 596aaec83742Elo-derived game-winner estimate: MEM 21% · POR 79% · Final · NBA hub schedule
Model Performance: the Elo rating’s game-outcome accuracy is not yet established — 71 regular-season games graded so far; the preregistration requires 300 before any accuracy claim. An estimate derived from the Elo team rating — not an independently validated probability, not a simulation result, and not a betting recommendation.
- Not shown: this model's team score is a sum of player simulations that ignores the opponent, can contradict the Elo side, and has not met its historical checks.
- Medians only: the model's ranges have not yet shown reliable coverage.
- No sportsbook prices, lines, edges, picks or rankings: there is no authorized NBA price, and these figures are not betting recommendations.