KC @ SEA
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks, Sun, Oct 25. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET · final
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was KC 3 – 20 SEA, from the Week 7 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: KC 3 – 20 SEA
The played game's official lines, recorded Oct 26, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| SEA | 0 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
Kansas City Chiefs · 3
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 165Forecast 240 (132–395) · in range | 14Forecast 6 (0–30) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 13.4% |
| Kenneth Walker III | 0 | 36Forecast 88 (38–159) · outside range | 4Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 21Forecast 16 (0–50) · in range | NoForecast 73.2% |
| Noah Gray | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 44Forecast 14 (0–49) · in range | NoForecast 11.5% |
| Travis Kelce | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 44Forecast 35 (6–84) · in range | NoForecast 25.9% |
| Cyrus Allen | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | No |
| Emmett Johnson | 0 | 0Forecast 5 (0–27) · in range | 2Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 17 | NoForecast 17.1% |
| Xavier Worthy | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 11Forecast 35 (6–83) · in range | NoForecast 24.8% |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | No |
| Andrew Armstrong | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 3 | NoForecast 10.3% |
| Jalen Royals | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0Forecast 7 (0–36) · in range | NoForecast 10.7% |
| Player lines added up | 165 | 50 | 19 | 165 |
20 other Kansas City Chiefs players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Seattle Seahawks · 20
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 257Forecast 195 (104–328) · in range | 17 | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 5.0% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 0 | 13 | 9Forecast 7 (3–14) · in range | 150Forecast 78 (28–148) · outside range | YesForecast 54.4% |
| Emanuel Wilson | 0 | 100Forecast 32 (10–67) · outside range | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 15 | YesForecast 42.4% |
| AJ Barner | 0 | 4 | 4Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 42Forecast 18 (0–54) · in range | NoForecast 17.2% |
| George Holani | 0 | 11Forecast 8 (0–30) · in range | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 12 | NoForecast 22.9% |
| Cooper Kupp | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (0–6) · in range | 20Forecast 20 (0–58) · in range | NoForecast 19.7% |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | No |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 0 | 8Forecast 1 (0–23) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 6.8% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–6) · in range | 1Forecast 20 (0–61) · in range | NoForecast 19.3% |
| Tory Horton | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0Forecast 10 (0–42) · in range | NoForecast 10.8% |
| Player lines added up | 257 | 153 | 20 | 257 |
24 other Seattle Seahawks players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 7 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET · Lumen Field
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks
Kansas City Chiefs34.6% to winPregame projection
19–23
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Seattle Seahawks62.6% to winSeattle Seahawks were the projected winner, 62.6% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
SEA +3
8 in 10 outcomes between -13 and +20
Expected total
42
8 in 10 outcomes between 25 and 59
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameKC 19 — 23 SEAwin chance KC 34.6% · SEA 62.6%total 42 (25–59)margin +3
KC
Likely TD scorers
Kenneth Walker III 73.2%
Travis Kelce 25.9%
Xavier Worthy 24.8%
Passing
Patrick Mahomes 240 pass yds (132–395)
Rushing leaders
Kenneth Walker III 88 rush yds (38–159)
Patrick Mahomes 6 rush yds (0–30)
Receiving leaders
Xavier Worthy 4 rec · 35 yds
Travis Kelce 3 rec · 35 yds
Kenneth Walker III 2 rec · 16 yds
SEA
Likely TD scorers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 54.4%
Emanuel Wilson 42.4%
George Holani 22.9%
Passing
Sam Darnold 195 pass yds (104–328)
Rushing leaders
Emanuel Wilson 32 rush yds (10–67)
George Holani 8 rush yds (0–30)
Receiving leaders
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 7 rec · 78 yds
Cooper Kupp 3 rec · 20 yds
Rashid Shaheed 2 rec · 20 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (6)
- Rashee Rice KC — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Tyquan Thornton KC — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Justin Fields KC — Role not yet observed: no game for KC yet this season — role at KC not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 11 games for NYJ, 0 rec · 0 rec yds · 36.5 rush yds · 118.6 pass yds per game.
- Drew Lock SEA — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Jadarian Price SEA — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Zach Charbonnet SEA — Not playing: Listed Out.
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 17 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 7 (3–14) | 78 (28–148) | 54.4% | |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | 4 (1–8) | 35 (6–83) | 24.8% | |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 3 (1–7) | 35 (6–84) | 25.9% | |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | 3 (0–6) | 20 (0–58) | 19.7% | |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | 2 (0–5) | 16 (0–50) | 73.2% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA | 2 (0–6) | 20 (0–61) | 19.3% | |
| AJ Barner | SEA | 2 (0–5) | 18 (0–54) | 17.2% | |
| Noah Gray | KC | 2 (0–4) | 14 (0–49) | 11.5% | |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 1 (0–3) | — | 42.4% | |
| George Holani | SEA | 1 (0–3) | — | 22.9% | |
| Emmett Johnson | KC | 1 (0–3) | — | 17.1% | |
| Tory Horton | SEA | 1 (0–3) | 10 (0–42) | 10.8% | |
| Jalen Royals | KC | 1 (0–3) | 7 (0–36) | 10.7% | |
| Andrew Armstrong | KC | 1 (0–3) | — | 10.3% |
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (6)
- Rashee Rice KC — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Tyquan Thornton KC — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Justin Fields KC — Role not yet observed: no game for KC yet this season — role at KC not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 11 games for NYJ, 0 rec · 0 rec yds · 36.5 rush yds · 118.6 pass yds per game.
- Drew Lock SEA — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Jadarian Price SEA — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Zach Charbonnet SEA — Not playing: Listed Out.
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 17 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 73.2% Kenneth Walker III · KC
- 54.4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA
- 42.4% Emanuel Wilson · SEA
- 25.9% Travis Kelce · KC
- 24.8% Xavier Worthy · KC
- 22.9% George Holani · SEA
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · separate from this Official Forecast
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- c712bd878fbd38d5
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (947 graded player-games).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1248 graded player-games).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ PITSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET