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NFL · KC @ SEA · Simulation

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

41.1%KC win in the simulated games

58.5%SEA win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.5%game goes to overtime

KC 19 – 23 SEAmedian score · averages 19.48 – 22.53

41median total · 80% of games 26–58

SEA by 3median margin · 80% range: KC by 15 to SEA by 21

44.7%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

9.2% · 6.8%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: SEA points minus KC points (below 0 means KC won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (3). Range shown -48 to 51.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (41). Range shown 0 to 96.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
KC	7	19	31	19.48
SEA	10	23	35	22.53

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	KC median (80%)	SEA median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	KC wins it	SEA wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	9 (3–17)	36.9%	44.5%	18.6%
Q2	6 (0–13)	7 (0–14)	13 (3–21)	39.0%	47.5%	13.5%
Q3	3 (0–10)	3 (0–10)	8 (2–17)	35.9%	44.1%	20.0%
Q4	3 (0–11)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–20)	36.8%	45.8%	17.4%
1st half	10 (3–20)	10 (3–21)	21 (10–34)	40.9%	52.2%	6.9%
2nd half	9 (0–17)	10 (3–20)	20 (9–31)	39.4%	52.0%	8.6%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	KC	SEA
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (50–75)	63 (50–75)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (24–43)
Completions	23 (16–30)	22 (16–30)
Passing yards	188 (110–280)	211 (129–307)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	25 (17–34)	26 (18–36)
Rushing yards	118 (58–198)	111 (54–191)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
KC	11.3%	27.3%	30.4%	20.1%	8.2%	2.8%
SEA	6.4%	21.8%	29.7%	25.0%	11.8%	5.3%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

KC passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Patrick Mahomes QB	30 (22–39)	20 (14–27)	168 (94–255)	1.1	0.9

KC rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Kenneth Walker III RB	16 (10–23)	79 (33–144)	0.5
Patrick Mahomes QB	4 (2–7)	14 (1–43)	0.1
Emmett Johnson RB	2 (1–5)	6 (0–27)	0.1
Khyiris Tonga DT	0 (0–1)	0 (0–4)	0.0

KC receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Xavier Worthy WR	8 (4–12)	5 (2–9)	39 (10–88)	0.3
Travis Kelce TE	7 (4–11)	5 (2–8)	38 (9–85)	0.3
Kenneth Walker III RB	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	20 (2–56)	0.2
Noah Gray TE	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	15 (0–51)	0.1
Jalen Royals WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	9 (0–38)	0.1
Emmett Johnson RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	7 (0–36)	0.1

SEA passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Sam Darnold QB	33 (24–43)	22 (16–30)	211 (129–307)	1.5	0.8

SEA rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Emanuel Wilson RB	14 (9–20)	53 (19–108)	0.5
Sam Darnold QB	4 (2–7)	16 (2–46)	0.1
George Holani RB	4 (2–8)	14 (1–45)	0.1
Velus Jones Jr. RB	2 (0–4)	6 (0–28)	0.1

SEA receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	11 (6–16)	8 (4–12)	74 (28–137)	0.5
Cooper Kupp WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	21 (1–60)	0.2
Rashid Shaheed WR	4 (2–8)	3 (1–5)	20 (0–62)	0.2
AJ Barner TE	4 (2–7)	2 (1–5)	18 (0–55)	0.2
Tory Horton WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	9 (0–41)	0.1
George Holani RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–34)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Kenneth Walker III RB	KC	50.3%	14.2%	15.6%
Emanuel Wilson RB	SEA	43.4%	9.9%	12.7%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	SEA	39.9%	8.3%	11.6%
Xavier Worthy WR	KC	25.5%	3.2%	6.2%
Travis Kelce TE	KC	23.0%	2.5%	6.2%
Rashid Shaheed WR	SEA	21.1%	2.2%	5.1%
George Holani RB	SEA	20.7%	2.1%	5.2%
Cooper Kupp WR	SEA	18.1%	1.6%	4.9%
AJ Barner TE	SEA	16.0%	1.3%	4.1%
Emmett Johnson RB	KC	14.3%	1.2%	3.6%
Noah Gray TE	KC	12.7%	0.8%	3.1%
Tory Horton WR	SEA	11.1%	0.6%	2.7%
Jalen Royals WR	KC	9.6%	0.3%	2.2%
Velus Jones Jr. RB	SEA	8.9%	0.5%	2.2%
Sam Darnold QB	SEA	8.3%	0.3%	2.1%
Patrick Mahomes QB	KC	7.7%	0.3%	1.8%

First touchdown by team: KC 45.1% · SEA 54.2% · no offensive touchdown 0.8%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: KC 19 – 22 SEA

By quarter: KC 0 / 6 / 3 / 10 · SEA 3 / 10 / 0 / 9

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (KC–SEA)
1	SEA	88	punt	5	46	0–0
1	KC	99	punt	4	6	0–0
1	SEA	23	fg	10	17	0–3
1	KC	65	fg	7	64	3–3
2	SEA	68	punt	3	7	3–3
2	KC	91	punt	3	33	3–3
2	SEA	70	td	10	70	3–10
2	KC	67	fg	14	63	6–10
2	SEA	65	fg	10	38	6–13
2	KC	75	fg	9	59	9–13
3	SEA	65	punt	6	5	9–13
3	KC	81	punt	3	39	9–13
3	SEA	99	punt	6	21	9–13
3	KC	47	fg	10	19	12–13
4	SEA	65	fg	5	38	12–16
4	KC	74	punt	3	22	12–16
4	SEA	88	fg	9	67	12–19
4	KC	65	td	5	65	19–19
4	SEA	65	fg	9	31	19–22

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: KC 27 – 30 SEA (OT)

By quarter: KC 6 / 7 / 7 / 7 / OT 0 · SEA 7 / 10 / 3 / 7 / OT 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (KC–SEA)
1	KC	70	td	6	70	6–0
1	SEA	63	td	10	63	6–7
1	KC	72	punt	3	16	6–7
1	SEA	62	fg	9	61	6–10
2	KC	65	td	10	65	13–10
2	SEA	74	fg miss	6	73	13–10
2	KC	66	opp td	5	-3	13–17
2	KC	73	end half	5	29	13–17
2	SEA	80	fg	8	38	13–20
3	KC	72	td	9	72	20–20
3	SEA	66	punt	3	1	20–20
3	KC	99	punt	3	36	20–20
3	SEA	78	punt	3	-8	20–20
3	KC	58	turnover	7	6	20–20
4	SEA	53	td	7	53	20–27
4	KC	66	punt	3	16	20–27
4	SEA	76	punt	3	-3	20–27
4	KC	59	td	6	59	27–27
4	SEA	65	end half	8	-1	27–27
OT	SEA	63	punt	3	18	27–27
OT	KC	89	downs	8	8	27–27
OT	SEA	31	fg	13	26	27–30

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: KC 12 – 14 SEA

By quarter: KC 6 / 3 / 3 / 0 · SEA 5 / 6 / 3 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (KC–SEA)
1	KC	74	safety	3	-26	0–2
1	SEA	57	fg	11	38	0–5
1	KC	70	punt	3	20	0–5
1	SEA	94	punt	3	21	0–5
1	KC	69	punt	5	15	0–5
1	SEA	91	opp td	5	-8	6–5
1	SEA	65	punt	3	6	6–5
1	KC	90	punt	3	11	6–5
2	SEA	51	turnover	2	24	6–5
2	KC	66	turnover	3	7	6–5
2	SEA	25	fg	6	16	6–8
2	KC	65	downs	4	51	6–8
2	SEA	87	fg	8	76	6–11
2	KC	68	fg	4	42	9–11
2	SEA	74	end half	1	10	9–11
2	SEA	65	fg	7	48	9–14
3	KC	65	fg	12	60	12–14
3	SEA	75	fg miss	10	41	12–14
3	KC	58	punt	6	17	12–14
3	SEA	99	punt	3	2	12–14
4	KC	40	downs	4	31	12–14
4	SEA	91	punt	5	26	12–14
4	KC	62	punt	3	8	12–14
4	SEA	82	punt	5	15	12–14
4	KC	95	punt	5	3	12–14
4	SEA	57	end half	3	7	12–14

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 23, 7:47 PM ET · before kickoff Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET
Seed	1df1e85a · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 42 / margin.median 3 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means SEA 22.44 / KC 19.45
Availability	injuries as of Oct 23, 7:45 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 23, 7:45 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873022:d797f9005dd5ea7c

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.