LAR @ LV
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders, Sun, Oct 25. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · final
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was LAR 35 – 21 LV, from the Week 7 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: LAR 35 – 21 LV
The played game's official lines, recorded Oct 25, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 7 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 35 |
| LV | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 21 |
Los Angeles Rams · 35
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 195Forecast 257 (151–406) · in range | -3Forecast 1 (0–16) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 5.0% |
| Kyren Williams | 0 | 99Forecast 63 (26–115) · in range | 2Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 22Forecast 21 (1–57) · in range | YesForecast 60.0% |
| Blake Corum | 0 | 93Forecast 33 (8–76) · outside range | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 8 | YesForecast 32.2% |
| Puka Nacua | 0 | 10 | 8Forecast 7 (3–14) · in range | 68Forecast 60 (19–119) · in range | YesForecast 41.9% |
| Colby Parkinson | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 48Forecast 11 (0–42) · outside range | NoForecast 18.3% |
| Davis Allen | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | Yes |
| Konata Mumpfield | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 15Forecast 8 (0–40) · in range | NoForecast 12.0% |
| Tyler Higbee | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 14Forecast 20 (0–59) · in range | NoForecast 18.0% |
| Ronnie RiversNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 4 (0–28) | — | — | —Forecast 11.4% |
| Player lines added up | 195 | 199 | 23 | 195 |
23 other Los Angeles Rams players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Las Vegas Raiders · 21
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 295Forecast 227 (126–372) · in range | 6 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Tre Tucker | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 103Forecast 31 (2–83) · outside range | YesForecast 31.9% |
| Ashton Jeanty | 0 | 15Forecast 44 (17–84) · outside range | 8Forecast 4 (1–7) · outside range | 61Forecast 25 (2–67) · in range | YesForecast 44.6% |
| Brock Bowers | 0 | 0 | 6Forecast 6 (2–11) · in range | 73Forecast 50 (13–110) · in range | NoForecast 44.3% |
| Michael Mayer | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 32Forecast 26 (2–67) · in range | NoForecast 22.1% |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 0 | 27Forecast 19 (2–55) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 17.7% |
| Jalen Nailor | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 14Forecast 12 (0–44) · in range | NoForecast 13.9% |
| AJ Cole | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Connor Heyward | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | No |
| Ian Thomas | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | No |
| Cody White | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 4Forecast 7 (0–39) · in range | NoForecast 16.9% |
| Dylan Laube | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 7.9% |
| Chris CollierNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 13.1% |
| Fernando MendozaNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 3.7% |
| Jack BechNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–4) | —Forecast 13 (0–47) | —Forecast 12.9% |
| Player lines added up | 308 | 48 | 27 | 308 |
21 other Las Vegas Raiders players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 7 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Rams62.3% to winPregame projection
25–22
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Las Vegas Raiders34.6% to winLos Angeles Rams were the projected winner, 62.3% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
LV -4
8 in 10 outcomes between -20 and +13
Expected total
47
8 in 10 outcomes between 31 and 65
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameLAR 25 — 22 LVwin chance LAR 62.3% · LV 34.6%total 47 (31–65)margin -4
LAR
Likely TD scorers
Kyren Williams 60.0%
Puka Nacua 41.9%
Blake Corum 32.2%
Passing
Matthew Stafford 257 pass yds (151–406)
Rushing leaders
Kyren Williams 63 rush yds (26–115)
Blake Corum 33 rush yds (8–76)
Receiving leaders
Puka Nacua 7 rec · 60 yds
Kyren Williams 4 rec · 21 yds
Tyler Higbee 3 rec · 20 yds
LV
Likely TD scorers
Ashton Jeanty 44.6%
Brock Bowers 44.3%
Tre Tucker 31.9%
Passing
Kirk Cousins 227 pass yds (126–372)
Rushing leaders
Ashton Jeanty 44 rush yds (17–84)
Mike Washington Jr. 19 rush yds (2–55)
Receiving leaders
Brock Bowers 6 rec · 50 yds
Ashton Jeanty 4 rec · 25 yds
Tre Tucker 3 rec · 31 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (4)
- Davante Adams LAR — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Terrance Ferguson LAR — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Dont'e Thornton Jr. LV — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Aidan O'Connell LV — Not playing: Listed Out.
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 20 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LAR | 7 (3–14) | 60 (19–119) | 41.9% | |
| Brock Bowers | LV | 6 (2–11) | 50 (13–110) | 44.3% | |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | 4 (1–8) | 21 (1–57) | 60.0% | |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | 4 (1–7) | 25 (2–67) | 44.6% | |
| Tre Tucker | LV | 3 (1–7) | 31 (2–83) | 31.9% | |
| Michael Mayer | LV | 3 (1–7) | 26 (2–67) | 22.1% | |
| Tyler Higbee | LAR | 3 (1–6) | 20 (0–59) | 18.0% | |
| Colby Parkinson | LAR | 2 (0–5) | 11 (0–42) | 18.3% | |
| Blake Corum | LAR | 1 (0–3) | — | 32.2% | |
| Cody White | LV | 1 (0–3) | 7 (0–39) | 16.9% | |
| Jalen Nailor | LV | 1 (0–4) | 12 (0–44) | 13.9% | |
| Jack Bech | LV | 1 (0–4) | 13 (0–47) | 12.9% | |
| Konata Mumpfield | LAR | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–40) | 12.0% |
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (4)
- Davante Adams LAR — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Terrance Ferguson LAR — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Dont'e Thornton Jr. LV — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Aidan O'Connell LV — Not playing: Listed Out.
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 19 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 60.0% Kyren Williams · LAR
- 44.6% Ashton Jeanty · LV
- 44.3% Brock Bowers · LV
- 41.9% Puka Nacua · LAR
- 32.2% Blake Corum · LAR
- 31.9% Tre Tucker · LV
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · separate from this Official Forecast
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 5264ef2b187dc238
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (947 graded player-games).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1248 graded player-games).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
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