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NFL · LAR @ LV · Simulation

Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

63.9%LAR win in the simulated games

35.8%LV win in the simulated games

0.3%tie after overtime

3.5%game goes to overtime

LAR 26 – 20 LVmedian score · averages 25.76 – 20.95

46median total · 80% of games 30–64

LAR by 5median margin · 80% range: LAR by 23 to LV by 13

43.5%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.0% · 6.5%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: LV points minus LAR points (below 0 means LAR won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-5). Range shown -63 to 48.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (46). Range shown 4 to 104.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
LAR	13	26	38	25.76
LV	9	20	34	20.95

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	LAR median (80%)	LV median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	LAR wins it	LV wins it	Level
Q1	6 (0–13)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–18)	46.9%	35.5%	17.6%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–23)	50.7%	36.2%	13.1%
Q3	6 (0–13)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–17)	46.5%	34.8%	18.7%
Q4	7 (0–14)	6 (0–13)	12 (3–21)	49.1%	35.1%	15.8%
1st half	13 (3–23)	10 (3–20)	24 (13–36)	56.6%	37.0%	6.4%
2nd half	13 (3–21)	10 (2–20)	22 (10–35)	55.6%	36.7%	7.7%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	LAR	LV
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	63 (51–76)	62 (49–75)
Pass attempts	33 (24–43)	34 (25–44)
Completions	23 (16–31)	23 (16–30)
Passing yards	219 (137–316)	214 (129–313)
Passing TDs	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	0 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	27 (18–36)	24 (17–33)
Rushing yards	128 (65–210)	104 (49–184)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
LAR	3.5%	14.2%	25.7%	27.4%	18.5%	10.6%
LV	8.1%	22.8%	30.4%	22.9%	11.1%	4.7%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

LAR passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Matthew Stafford QB	32 (23–41)	22 (16–30)	212 (130–307)	1.7	0.6

LAR rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Kyren Williams RB	13 (8–19)	59 (23–116)	0.5
Blake Corum RB	7 (4–11)	30 (8–73)	0.3
Matthew Stafford QB	3 (1–6)	12 (0–38)	0.1
Ronnie Rivers RB	2 (0–4)	5 (0–26)	0.1

LAR receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Puka Nacua WR	11 (6–16)	8 (4–12)	72 (27–135)	0.6
Kyren Williams RB	5 (3–9)	4 (2–7)	29 (5–72)	0.3
Tyler Higbee TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–6)	26 (3–68)	0.2
Colby Parkinson TE	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	15 (0–51)	0.2
Konata Mumpfield WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–48)	0.2
Blake Corum RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–34)	0.1

LV passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Kirk Cousins QB	34 (25–44)	23 (16–30)	214 (129–313)	1.4	0.9

LV rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Ashton Jeanty RB	13 (8–19)	50 (17–105)	0.5
Mike Washington Jr. RB	5 (2–8)	20 (3–58)	0.2
Kirk Cousins QB	3 (1–6)	11 (0–38)	0.1
Dylan Laube RB	1 (0–3)	1 (0–16)	0.0

LV receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Brock Bowers TE	7 (4–12)	5 (2–8)	44 (10–97)	0.3
Tre Tucker WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	26 (2–70)	0.2
Michael Mayer TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–6)	23 (2–65)	0.2
Ashton Jeanty RB	4 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	23 (2–64)	0.2
Jack Bech WR	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–44)	0.1
Jalen Nailor WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–44)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Kyren Williams RB	LAR	57.1%	19.0%	16.4%
Ashton Jeanty RB	LV	49.9%	14.3%	13.0%
Puka Nacua WR	LAR	47.2%	12.0%	12.1%
Blake Corum RB	LAR	33.1%	5.2%	7.9%
Brock Bowers TE	LV	27.6%	4.0%	6.0%
Tyler Higbee TE	LAR	21.7%	2.3%	4.9%
Tre Tucker WR	LV	19.0%	1.8%	3.7%
Mike Washington Jr. RB	LV	18.2%	1.6%	4.0%
Colby Parkinson TE	LAR	16.3%	1.2%	3.4%
Michael Mayer TE	LV	16.2%	1.3%	3.4%
Konata Mumpfield WR	LAR	14.6%	1.0%	3.1%
Jalen Nailor WR	LV	11.7%	0.6%	2.4%
Ronnie Rivers RB	LAR	10.9%	0.5%	2.4%
Jack Bech WR	LV	10.1%	0.4%	2.3%
Cody White WR	LV	8.7%	0.2%	1.9%
Davis Allen TE	LAR	7.6%	0.4%	1.8%

First touchdown by team: LAR 56.6% · LV 43.1% · no offensive touchdown 0.3%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: LAR 25 – 20 LV

By quarter: LAR 7 / 3 / 7 / 8 · LV 0 / 7 / 10 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (LAR–LV)
1	LAR	60	punt	9	8	0–0
1	LV	93	punt	3	18	0–0
1	LAR	31	td	8	31	7–0
1	LV	48	td	10	48	7–7
2	LAR	77	punt	7	8	7–7
2	LV	72	punt	3	-5	7–7
2	LAR	57	punt	5	6	7–7
2	LV	90	punt	7	-6	7–7
2	LAR	45	fg	8	36	10–7
2	LV	65	end half	2	45	10–7
2	LV	71	td	8	71	10–14
3	LAR	49	td	8	49	17–14
3	LV	73	fg	9	51	17–17
3	LAR	65	td	11	65	25–17
4	LV	73	punt	3	18	25–17
4	LAR	77	punt	3	6	25–17
4	LV	83	punt	3	19	25–17
4	LAR	77	punt	7	15	25–17
4	LV	83	fg	10	51	25–20

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: LAR 34 – 29 LV

By quarter: LAR 7 / 7 / 7 / 13 · LV 0 / 3 / 6 / 20

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (LAR–LV)
1	LAR	65	punt	9	7	0–0
1	LV	99	punt	3	11	0–0
1	LAR	63	td	10	63	7–0
1	LV	65	punt	3	19	7–0
1	LAR	99	punt	3	0	7–0
2	LV	52	turnover	4	17	7–0
2	LAR	63	punt	6	40	7–0
2	LV	99	fg	7	71	7–3
2	LAR	75	td	15	75	14–3
2	LV	65	fg	9	55	14–6
3	LAR	70	td	4	70	21–6
3	LV	69	fg	13	38	21–9
3	LAR	65	punt	3	29	21–9
4	LV	99	td	2	99	21–15
4	LAR	65	td	7	65	28–15
4	LV	68	td	4	68	28–22
4	LAR	77	punt	3	21	28–22
4	LV	72	td	6	72	28–29
4	LAR	65	td	9	65	34–29
4	LV	69	downs	10	32	34–29
4	LAR	58	end half	2	-1	34–29

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: LAR 17 – 13 LV

By quarter: LAR 0 / 3 / 7 / 7 · LV 3 / 10 / 0 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (LAR–LV)
1	LV	72	fg	8	71	0–3
1	LAR	76	punt	8	12	0–3
1	LV	78	punt	3	10	0–3
1	LAR	70	fg	12	68	3–3
2	LV	71	td	2	71	3–10
2	LAR	77	punt	5	11	3–10
2	LV	79	punt	6	-1	3–10
2	LAR	56	turnover	9	0	3–10
2	LV	36	fg	12	20	3–13
2	LAR	74	td	11	74	10–13
3	LV	69	punt	3	4	10–13
3	LAR	79	punt	3	0	10–13
3	LV	64	punt	3	6	10–13
3	LAR	80	punt	6	39	10–13
3	LV	99	punt	3	14	10–13
4	LAR	56	td	10	56	17–13
4	LV	79	downs	9	24	17–13
4	LAR	45	downs	13	6	17–13
4	LV	61	end half	9	9	17–13

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 25, 3:56 PM ET · before kickoff Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET
Seed	600fb449 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 47 / margin.median -4 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means LV 21.42 / LAR 25.56
Availability	injuries as of Oct 25, 3:51 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 25, 3:51 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873021:cb20f14274c612cc

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.