GB @ DET
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, Sun, Oct 25. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · final
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was GB 17 – 20 DET, from the Week 7 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: GB 17 – 20 DET
The played game's official lines, recorded Oct 25, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | 7 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 17 |
| DET | 7 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 20 |
Green Bay Packers · 17
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 274Forecast 239 (133–391) · in range | 0Forecast 1 (0–16) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 8.1% |
| Josh Jacobs | 0 | 36Forecast 24 (4–59) · in range | 5Forecast 1.8 (0–3.7) · outside range | 55 | YesForecast 44.9% |
| Christian Watson | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 3.7 (0.9–8.2) · in range | 57Forecast 37 (3–93) · in range | NoForecast 42.1% |
| Savion Williams | 0 | 4 | 3Forecast 0.9 (0–2.7) · outside range | 47 | NoForecast 12.6% |
| Tucker Kraft | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 3.7 (0.9–7.3) · in range | 48Forecast 23 (0–64) · in range | YesForecast 26.2% |
| Matthew Golden | 0 | 0 | 6Forecast 3.7 (0.9–8.2) · in range | 39Forecast 36 (5–90) · in range | NoForecast 35.9% |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 0 | 20Forecast 14 (2–38) · in range | 2Forecast 0.9 (0–3.7) · in range | 15 | NoForecast 35.4% |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | No |
| Bo Melton | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | No |
| Chris BrooksNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 5 (0–27) | — | — | —Forecast 14.1% |
| Jayden ReedNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1.8 (0–4.6) | —Forecast 12 (0–44) | —Forecast 16.6% |
| Pierre Strong Jr.No line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 10 (0–33) | —Forecast 2.7 (0.9–6.4) | —Forecast 14 (0–47) | —Forecast 33.9% |
| Tyrod TaylorNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 5.7% |
| Player lines added up | 274 | 60 | 27 | 274 |
22 other Green Bay Packers players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Detroit Lions · 20
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 303Forecast 260 (149–416) · in range | -1Forecast 1 (0–17) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 8.8% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 0 | -1 | 9Forecast 7 (2–13) · in range | 153Forecast 60 (20–116) · outside range | NoForecast 52.1% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 0 | 116Forecast 91 (43–151) · in range | 5Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 27Forecast 35 (8–79) · in range | NoForecast 84.3% |
| Jameson Williams | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 91Forecast 32 (2–85) · outside range | YesForecast 29.8% |
| Sam LaPorta | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 18Forecast 40 (8–91) · in range | NoForecast 36.0% |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 10Forecast 15 (0–57) · in range | NoForecast 15.9% |
| Sione Vaki | 0 | 5Forecast 4 (0–25) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 12.6% |
| Tyler Conklin | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | No |
| Justin JacksonNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 18.6% |
| Player lines added up | 303 | 119 | 22 | 303 |
23 other Detroit Lions players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 7 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · Ford Field
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers41.8% to winPregame projection
24–27
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Detroit Lions55.2% to winDetroit Lions were the projected winner, 55.2% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
DET +3
8 in 10 outcomes between -14 and +19
Expected total
51
8 in 10 outcomes between 34 and 69
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameGB 24 — 27 DETwin chance GB 41.8% · DET 55.2%total 51 (34–69)margin +3
GB
Likely TD scorers
Josh Jacobs 44.9%
Christian Watson 42.1%
Matthew Golden 35.9%
Passing
Jordan Love 239 pass yds (133–391)
Rushing leaders
Josh Jacobs 24 rush yds (4–59)
MarShawn Lloyd 14 rush yds (2–38)
Receiving leaders
Christian Watson 3.7 rec · 37 yds
Matthew Golden 3.7 rec · 36 yds
Tucker Kraft 3.7 rec · 23 yds
DET
Likely TD scorers
Jahmyr Gibbs 84.3%
Amon-Ra St. Brown 52.1%
Sam LaPorta 36.0%
Passing
Jared Goff 260 pass yds (149–416)
Rushing leaders
Jahmyr Gibbs 91 rush yds (43–151)
Sione Vaki 4 rush yds (0–25)
Receiving leaders
Amon-Ra St. Brown 7 rec · 60 yds
Jahmyr Gibbs 4 rec · 35 yds
Sam LaPorta 4 rec · 40 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (4)
- Kaleb Johnson GB — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Luke Musgrave GB — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Skyy Moore GB — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Isiah Pacheco DET — Role not yet observed: no game for DET yet this season — role at DET not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 16 games for KC, 1.3 rec · 7.7 rec yds · 30.7 rush yds per game.
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 19 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 7 (2–13) | 60 (20–116) | 52.1% | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 4 (1–9) | 35 (8–79) | 84.3% | |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | 4 (1–9) | 40 (8–91) | 36.0% | |
| Christian Watson | GB | 3.7 (0.9–8.2) | 37 (3–93) | 42.1% | |
| Matthew Golden | GB | 3.7 (0.9–8.2) | 36 (5–90) | 35.9% | |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | 3.7 (0.9–7.3) | 23 (0–64) | 26.2% | |
| Jameson Williams | DET | 3 (1–7) | 32 (2–85) | 29.8% | |
| Pierre Strong Jr. | GB | 2.7 (0.9–6.4) | 14 (0–47) | 33.9% | |
| Isaac TeSlaa | DET | 2 (0–4) | 15 (0–57) | 15.9% | |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | 1.8 (0–3.7) | — | 44.9% | |
| Jayden Reed | GB | 1.8 (0–4.6) | 12 (0–44) | 16.6% | |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB | 0.9 (0–3.7) | — | 35.4% | |
| Savion Williams | GB | 0.9 (0–2.7) | — | 12.6% |
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (4)
- Kaleb Johnson GB — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Luke Musgrave GB — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Skyy Moore GB — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Isiah Pacheco DET — Role not yet observed: no game for DET yet this season — role at DET not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 16 games for KC, 1.3 rec · 7.7 rec yds · 30.7 rush yds per game.
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 19 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 84.3% Jahmyr Gibbs · DET
- 52.1% Amon-Ra St. Brown · DET
- 44.9% Josh Jacobs · GB
- 42.1% Christian Watson · GB
- 36.0% Sam LaPorta · DET
- 35.9% Matthew Golden · GB
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · separate from this Official Forecast
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 1e7a65f7b965b263
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (947 graded player-games).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1248 graded player-games).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
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