Today · Oct 30 · 10 events Latest results· Oct 29

NFL · GB @ DET · Simulation

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

40.6%GB win in the simulated games

59.0%DET win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.4%game goes to overtime

GB 24 – 27 DETmedian score · averages 23.78 – 26.98

50median total · 80% of games 34–68

DET by 3median margin · 80% range: GB by 14 to DET by 21

44.7%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.7% · 6.4%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: DET points minus GB points (below 0 means GB won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (3). Range shown -48 to 54.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (50). Range shown 0 to 108.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
GB	12	24	37	23.78
DET	15	27	39	26.98

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	GB median (80%)	DET median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	GB wins it	DET wins it	Level
Q1	6 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–20)	37.5%	45.9%	16.6%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	14 (6–24)	38.0%	49.7%	12.4%
Q3	6 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–20)	37.7%	44.9%	17.4%
Q4	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–23)	38.5%	45.9%	15.6%
1st half	12 (3–21)	14 (6–23)	26 (14–38)	39.4%	54.1%	6.5%
2nd half	10 (3–21)	13 (3–21)	24 (13–37)	40.3%	51.6%	8.0%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	GB	DET
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (50–75)	63 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (25–43)
Completions	23 (16–30)	23 (16–30)
Passing yards	232 (142–332)	230 (144–327)
Passing TDs	2 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	25 (17–34)	26 (18–36)
Rushing yards	110 (52–192)	132 (66–215)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
GB	4.4%	16.8%	27.7%	26.9%	15.8%	8.3%
DET	2.5%	10.8%	24.3%	27.3%	21.5%	13.6%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

GB passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jordan Love QB	30 (22–40)	20 (14–27)	207 (122–304)	1.5	0.7

GB rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Josh Jacobs RB	7 (4–11)	29 (7–74)	0.3
MarShawn Lloyd RB	6 (3–9)	18 (3–54)	0.2
Pierre Strong Jr. RB	4 (2–7)	14 (1–45)	0.2
Jordan Love QB	3 (1–5)	11 (0–38)	0.1

GB receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Matthew Golden WR	6 (3–10)	4 (1–7)	38 (6–89)	0.3
Christian Watson WR	6 (3–9)	3 (1–6)	37 (6–89)	0.3
Tucker Kraft TE	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	26 (2–69)	0.2
Pierre Strong Jr. RB	3 (1–6)	2 (1–4)	16 (0–53)	0.2
Jayden Reed WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–47)	0.1
Josh Jacobs RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–34)	0.1

DET passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jared Goff QB	30 (22–39)	20 (14–27)	205 (125–299)	1.7	0.5

DET rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Jahmyr Gibbs RB	18 (11–25)	88 (39–159)	0.8
Jared Goff QB	3 (1–5)	10 (0–36)	0.1
Sione Vaki RB	2 (0–4)	5 (0–26)	0.1

DET receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	9 (5–14)	6 (3–10)	58 (19–115)	0.6
Sam LaPorta TE	6 (3–9)	4 (2–7)	37 (8–87)	0.3
Jahmyr Gibbs RB	6 (3–9)	4 (2–7)	34 (7–80)	0.3
Jameson Williams WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	30 (3–77)	0.3
Isaac TeSlaa WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–51)	0.2
Brock Wright TE	1 (0–3)	1 (0–2)	2 (0–26)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Jahmyr Gibbs RB	DET	70.1%	31.1%	20.8%
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR	DET	42.6%	10.2%	9.7%
Josh Jacobs RB	GB	32.6%	5.2%	6.8%
Pierre Strong Jr. RB	GB	28.8%	4.2%	5.6%
MarShawn Lloyd RB	GB	28.0%	3.7%	5.5%
Other / unallocated	DET	27.9%	3.9%	5.8%
Sam LaPorta TE	DET	27.6%	4.3%	6.2%
Matthew Golden WR	GB	27.2%	3.8%	5.4%
Christian Watson WR	GB	24.7%	2.9%	4.8%
Jameson Williams WR	DET	24.3%	2.8%	4.9%
Tucker Kraft TE	GB	21.1%	2.2%	4.1%
Isaac TeSlaa WR	DET	14.8%	1.1%	2.9%
Jayden Reed WR	GB	13.8%	0.8%	2.6%
Chris Brooks RB	GB	13.3%	1.0%	2.7%
Sione Vaki RB	DET	11.9%	0.8%	2.2%
Savion Williams WR	GB	9.1%	0.5%	1.7%

First touchdown by team: GB 45.1% · DET 54.7% · no offensive touchdown 0.2%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: GB 24 – 27 DET

By quarter: GB 10 / 7 / 0 / 7 · DET 7 / 10 / 10 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (GB–DET)
1	GB	67	fg	5	49	3–0
1	DET	69	td	9	69	3–7
1	GB	69	td	8	69	10–7
1	DET	65	fg	11	60	10–10
2	GB	65	punt	3	6	10–10
2	DET	97	punt	3	12	10–10
2	GB	51	punt	3	4	10–10
2	DET	99	turnover	2	68	10–10
2	GB	64	punt	3	26	10–10
2	DET	92	td	7	92	10–17
2	GB	69	td	6	69	17–17
2	DET	72	end half	3	8	17–17
2	DET	70	td	5	70	17–24
3	GB	15	turnover	6	0	17–24
3	DET	95	fg	10	84	17–27
3	GB	66	downs	4	33	17–27
3	DET	67	punt	3	27	17–27
3	GB	99	punt	3	40	17–27
3	DET	91	punt	4	14	17–27
4	GB	69	td	16	69	24–27
4	DET	65	end half	2	18	24–27

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: GB 32 – 35 DET

By quarter: GB 3 / 14 / 7 / 8 · DET 7 / 14 / 7 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (GB–DET)
1	GB	65	fg	9	63	3–0
1	DET	69	punt	3	19	3–0
1	GB	84	punt	5	1	3–0
1	DET	64	td	7	64	3–7
1	GB	67	td	9	67	10–7
2	DET	70	td	9	70	10–14
2	GB	74	td	4	74	17–14
2	DET	56	td	14	56	17–21
2	GB	69	end half	8	11	17–21
2	DET	72	punt	3	1	17–21
3	GB	77	punt	6	7	17–21
3	DET	67	punt	3	30	17–21
3	GB	99	punt	5	11	17–21
3	DET	55	td	3	55	17–28
3	GB	69	td	1	69	24–28
3	DET	65	downs	8	20	24–28
3	GB	55	punt	6	4	24–28
4	DET	94	punt	3	29	24–28
4	GB	76	punt	3	14	24–28
4	DET	59	td	13	59	24–35
4	GB	65	td	8	65	32–35
4	DET	80	punt	3	11	32–35
4	GB	61	fg miss	7	51	32–35
4	DET	82	end half	1	-1	32–35

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: GB 16 – 19 DET

By quarter: GB 9 / 7 / 0 / 0 · DET 10 / 3 / 0 / 6

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (GB–DET)
1	DET	70	fg	9	41	0–3
1	GB	76	td	2	76	6–3
1	DET	71	td	7	71	6–10
1	GB	65	fg	10	48	9–10
1	DET	67	fg	14	42	9–13
2	GB	68	punt	5	1	9–13
2	DET	87	punt	3	4	9–13
2	GB	45	td	7	45	16–13
2	DET	62	punt	6	7	16–13
2	GB	98	punt	5	-1	16–13
2	DET	47	fg miss	3	9	16–13
2	GB	78	punt	3	16	16–13
3	DET	77	punt	4	9	16–13
3	GB	70	downs	12	50	16–13
3	DET	75	turnover	8	72	16–13
4	GB	99	turnover	5	95	16–13
4	DET	99	turnover	4	79	16–13
4	GB	93	downs	6	30	16–13
4	DET	20	td	12	20	16–19

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 25, 3:56 PM ET · before kickoff Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET
Seed	5553ce88 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 51 / margin.median 3 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means DET 27.07 / GB 24.02
Availability	injuries as of Oct 25, 3:51 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 25, 3:51 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873020:5fcb4de752ad61f7

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.