IND @ MIN
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings, Sun, Oct 25. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · final
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was IND 10 – 16 MIN, from the Week 7 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: IND 10 – 16 MIN
The played game's official lines, recorded Oct 25, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| MIN | 0 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
Indianapolis Colts · 10
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 108Forecast 204 (114–334) · outside range | 13Forecast 4 (0–24) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 13.5% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 0 | 95Forecast 56 (23–103) · in range | 2Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 15Forecast 14 (0–50) · in range | YesForecast 72.7% |
| Seth McGowan | 0 | 46Forecast 7 (0–32) · outside range | 1 | 2 | NoForecast 14.7% |
| Keenan Allen | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 5 (1–9) · in range | 31Forecast 32 (5–74) · in range | NoForecast 20.9% |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 19Forecast 14 (0–51) · in range | NoForecast 10.8% |
| Josh Downs | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 18Forecast 29 (3–73) · in range | NoForecast 17.3% |
| Drew Ogletree | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | No |
| Deion Burks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | No |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 0Forecast 9 (0–41) · in range | NoForecast 10.1% |
| Will Mallory | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 0Forecast 11 (0–44) · in range | NoForecast 11.4% |
| Anthony Richardson Sr.No line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 2 (0–23) | — | — | —Forecast 16.1% |
| D.J. MontgomeryNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 3 (1–6) | — | —Forecast 14.4% |
| DJ GiddensNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 5 (0–28) | — | — | —Forecast 10.7% |
| Player lines added up | 108 | 154 | 13 | 108 |
22 other Indianapolis Colts players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Minnesota Vikings · 16
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 150Forecast 164 (86–280) · in range | 39Forecast 10 (0–38) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 10.8% |
| Jordan Mason | 0 | 68Forecast 27 (6–65) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 29.7% |
| Justin Jefferson | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 4.7 (0.9–9.4) · in range | 44Forecast 49 (13–107) · in range | NoForecast 32.7% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 3.8 (0.9–7.5) · in range | 35Forecast 32 (6–75) · in range | YesForecast 20.5% |
| Jauan Jennings | 0 | 0 | 2 | 34 | No |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 0 | 26Forecast 51 (20–98) · in range | 1Forecast 1.9 (0–5.6) · in range | 0Forecast 18 (0–51) · in range | NoForecast 42.2% |
| Jordan Addison | 0 | 3 | 2Forecast 2.8 (0.9–7.5) · in range | 20Forecast 35 (5–83) · in range | NoForecast 24.5% |
| Gavin Bartholomew | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1.9 (0–3.8) · in range | 17Forecast 15 (0–48) · in range | NoForecast 10.5% |
| Myles Price | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 0.9 (0–2.8) · in range | 0 | NoForecast 6.7% |
| Tai Felton | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 0.9 (0–1.9) · in range | 0 | NoForecast 6.1% |
| Carson WentzNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 3 (0–23) | — | — | —Forecast 7.9% |
| Josh OliverNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 0.9 (0–2.8) | —Forecast 12 (0–48) | —Forecast 8.6% |
| Player lines added up | 150 | 136 | 14 | 150 |
21 other Minnesota Vikings players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 7 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
Indianapolis Colts19.6% to winPregame projection
16–26
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Minnesota Vikings78.0% to winMinnesota Vikings were the projected winner, 78.0% to win.
About 2% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
MIN +9
8 in 10 outcomes between -8 and +25
Expected total
42
8 in 10 outcomes between 25 and 58
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameIND 16 — 26 MINwin chance IND 19.6% · MIN 78.0%total 42 (25–58)margin +9
IND
Likely TD scorers
Jonathan Taylor 72.7%
Keenan Allen 20.9%
Josh Downs 17.3%
Passing
Daniel Jones 204 pass yds (114–334)
Rushing leaders
Jonathan Taylor 56 rush yds (23–103)
Seth McGowan 7 rush yds (0–32)
Receiving leaders
Keenan Allen 5 rec · 32 yds
Josh Downs 4 rec · 29 yds
D.J. Montgomery 3 rec · — yds
MIN
Likely TD scorers
Aaron Jones Sr. 42.2%
Justin Jefferson 32.7%
Jordan Mason 29.7%
Passing
Kyler Murray 164 pass yds (86–280)
Rushing leaders
Aaron Jones Sr. 51 rush yds (20–98)
Jordan Mason 27 rush yds (6–65)
Receiving leaders
Justin Jefferson 4.7 rec · 49 yds
T.J. Hockenson 3.8 rec · 32 yds
Jordan Addison 2.8 rec · 35 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (7)
- Anthony Richardson Sr. IND — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Tyler Warren IND — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Alec Pierce IND — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Riley Leonard IND — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Carson Wentz MIN — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Max Brosmer MIN — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Demond Claiborne MIN — Not playing: Listed Out.
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 22 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | IND | 5 (1–9) | 32 (5–74) | 20.9% | |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | 4.7 (0.9–9.4) | 49 (13–107) | 32.7% | |
| Josh Downs | IND | 4 (1–8) | 29 (3–73) | 17.3% | |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | 3.8 (0.9–7.5) | 32 (6–75) | 20.5% | |
| D.J. Montgomery | IND | 3 (1–6) | — | 14.4% | |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | 2.8 (0.9–7.5) | 35 (5–83) | 24.5% | |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 2 (0–5) | 14 (0–50) | 72.7% | |
| Will Mallory | IND | 2 (0–5) | 11 (0–44) | 11.4% | |
| Laquon Treadwell | IND | 2 (0–5) | 14 (0–51) | 10.8% | |
| Ashton Dulin | IND | 2 (0–4) | 9 (0–41) | 10.1% | |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN | 1.9 (0–5.6) | 18 (0–51) | 42.2% | |
| Gavin Bartholomew | MIN | 1.9 (0–3.8) | 15 (0–48) | 10.5% | |
| Josh Oliver | MIN | 0.9 (0–2.8) | 12 (0–48) | 8.6% | |
| Myles Price | MIN | 0.9 (0–2.8) | — | 6.7% | |
| Tai Felton | MIN | 0.9 (0–1.9) | — | 6.1% |
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (7)
- Anthony Richardson Sr. IND — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Tyler Warren IND — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Alec Pierce IND — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Riley Leonard IND — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Carson Wentz MIN — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Max Brosmer MIN — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Demond Claiborne MIN — Not playing: Listed Out.
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 22 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 72.7% Jonathan Taylor · IND
- 42.2% Aaron Jones Sr. · MIN
- 32.7% Justin Jefferson · MIN
- 29.7% Jordan Mason · MIN
- 24.5% Jordan Addison · MIN
- 20.9% Keenan Allen · IND
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · separate from this Official Forecast
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 8f7e87b5a204f33c
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (947 graded player-games).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1248 graded player-games).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
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