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NFL · IND @ MIN · Simulation

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

25.3%IND win in the simulated games

74.3%MIN win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

2.6%game goes to overtime

IND 16 – 24 MINmedian score · averages 16.22 – 25.17

41median total · 80% of games 26–57

MIN by 9median margin · 80% range: IND by 9 to MIN by 26

38.3%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

7.4% · 5.9%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: MIN points minus IND points (below 0 means IND won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (9). Range shown -42 to 63.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (41). Range shown 0 to 92.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
IND	6	16	27	16.22
MIN	13	24	38	25.17

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	IND median (80%)	MIN median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	IND wins it	MIN wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–9)	6 (0–13)	9 (3–17)	29.7%	52.3%	18.0%
Q2	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	13 (3–21)	29.9%	57.4%	12.7%
Q3	3 (0–8)	6 (0–13)	7 (2–17)	27.4%	52.6%	20.0%
Q4	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–20)	28.6%	54.4%	17.0%
1st half	7 (0–17)	13 (3–23)	21 (10–33)	29.7%	64.0%	6.3%
2nd half	7 (0–16)	12 (3–21)	20 (9–31)	27.6%	64.5%	7.9%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	IND	MIN
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	61 (48–74)	64 (51–77)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	32 (24–42)
Completions	21 (15–29)	22 (16–29)
Passing yards	183 (104–278)	207 (124–300)
Passing TDs	1 (0–2)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–3)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	23 (16–32)	28 (19–37)
Rushing yards	103 (48–179)	126 (65–209)
Rushing TDs	0 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
IND	18.0%	32.9%	29.0%	14.6%	4.3%	1.2%
MIN	4.4%	17.1%	27.2%	27.1%	15.6%	8.6%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

IND passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Daniel Jones QB	34 (25–44)	21 (15–29)	183 (104–278)	1.0	1.3

IND rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Jonathan Taylor RB	13 (8–18)	52 (18–109)	0.3
Daniel Jones QB	5 (3–9)	21 (3–58)	0.1
Seth McGowan RB	2 (1–5)	6 (0–31)	0.1
DJ Giddens RB	2 (0–4)	5 (0–28)	0.1

IND receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Keenan Allen WR	7 (4–12)	5 (2–8)	35 (7–82)	0.2
Josh Downs WR	6 (3–10)	4 (1–7)	30 (4–76)	0.2
Laquon Treadwell WR	4 (1–7)	2 (0–4)	15 (0–51)	0.1
Jonathan Taylor RB	4 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	15 (0–50)	0.1
Will Mallory TE	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–44)	0.1
Ashton Dulin WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–41)	0.1

MIN passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Kyler Murray QB	32 (24–42)	22 (16–29)	207 (124–300)	1.7	0.7

MIN rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Aaron Jones Sr. RB	12 (7–18)	51 (18–104)	0.4
Kyler Murray QB	7 (4–11)	30 (8–72)	0.2
Jordan Mason RB	7 (3–11)	27 (6–68)	0.3
Demond Claiborne RB	1 (0–2)	0 (0–14)	0.0

MIN receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Justin Jefferson WR	7 (3–10)	5 (2–8)	41 (9–92)	0.3
Jordan Addison WR	5 (3–9)	3 (1–6)	29 (3–75)	0.3
T.J. Hockenson TE	5 (2–8)	4 (1–7)	28 (4–72)	0.3
Aaron Jones Sr. RB	4 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	15 (0–51)	0.2
Gavin Bartholomew TE	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–47)	0.1
Josh Oliver TE	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	10 (0–42)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Aaron Jones Sr. RB	MIN	47.3%	12.8%	14.5%
Jonathan Taylor RB	IND	36.3%	6.7%	9.5%
Justin Jefferson WR	MIN	29.9%	4.5%	8.7%
Jordan Addison WR	MIN	26.0%	3.3%	7.6%
T.J. Hockenson TE	MIN	24.0%	2.6%	6.4%
Jordan Mason RB	MIN	23.4%	2.8%	6.5%
Keenan Allen WR	IND	20.2%	1.7%	5.2%
Kyler Murray QB	MIN	18.8%	1.7%	4.9%
Josh Downs WR	IND	18.6%	1.6%	4.7%
Gavin Bartholomew TE	MIN	14.1%	0.9%	3.6%
Josh Oliver TE	MIN	11.1%	0.6%	2.9%
Laquon Treadwell WR	IND	10.5%	0.4%	2.6%
Daniel Jones QB	IND	10.3%	0.5%	2.7%
Will Mallory TE	IND	9.3%	0.5%	2.3%
Ashton Dulin WR	IND	8.2%	0.3%	1.8%
Seth McGowan RB	IND	8.1%	0.5%	2.0%

First touchdown by team: IND 36.0% · MIN 63.2% · no offensive touchdown 0.8%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: IND 16 – 25 MIN

By quarter: IND 3 / 0 / 6 / 7 · MIN 3 / 3 / 9 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (IND–MIN)
1	MIN	73	punt	3	22	0–0
1	IND	86	punt	3	22	0–0
1	MIN	68	fg	5	26	0–3
1	IND	75	punt	4	26	0–3
1	MIN	99	punt	3	22	0–3
1	IND	55	fg	8	40	3–3
1	MIN	80	punt	3	23	3–3
2	IND	89	punt	3	-2	3–3
2	MIN	62	downs	11	32	3–3
2	IND	70	punt	3	0	3–3
2	MIN	66	fg	10	64	3–6
2	IND	72	end half	9	-1	3–6
2	IND	73	td	6	73	9–6
3	MIN	69	fg	5	58	9–9
3	IND	75	downs	11	49	9–9
3	MIN	79	td	7	79	9–15
3	IND	64	turnover	2	0	9–15
4	MIN	37	fg miss	4	8	9–15
4	IND	63	punt	5	13	9–15
4	MIN	89	punt	3	0	9–15
4	IND	62	td	9	62	16–15
4	MIN	65	fg	10	64	16–18
4	IND	68	opp td	6	0	16–25

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: IND 24 – 33 MIN

By quarter: IND 7 / 3 / 7 / 7 · MIN 0 / 6 / 6 / 21

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (IND–MIN)
1	MIN	74	punt	3	34	0–0
1	IND	91	punt	7	15	0–0
1	MIN	77	downs	4	20	0–0
1	IND	43	punt	3	-8	0–0
1	MIN	98	punt	3	5	0–0
1	IND	26	td	4	26	7–0
1	MIN	65	fg	9	48	7–3
2	IND	76	punt	3	41	7–3
2	MIN	99	fg	6	78	7–6
2	IND	64	fg	5	23	10–6
2	MIN	69	fg miss	6	66	10–6
2	IND	74	punt	3	-6	10–6
3	MIN	49	fg	9	16	10–9
3	IND	77	punt	4	-2	10–9
3	MIN	59	fg	3	31	10–12
3	IND	84	td	8	84	17–12
3	MIN	65	td	1	65	17–19
4	IND	79	turnover	3	9	17–19
4	MIN	40	td	1	40	17–26
4	IND	65	td	4	65	24–26
4	MIN	74	td	10	74	24–33
4	IND	51	downs	14	40	24–33
4	MIN	89	end half	2	9	24–33

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: IND 8 – 17 MIN

By quarter: IND 0 / 0 / 0 / 8 · MIN 0 / 10 / 0 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (IND–MIN)
1	MIN	85	punt	3	7	0–0
1	IND	76	punt	3	6	0–0
1	MIN	84	punt	3	-1	0–0
1	IND	52	downs	11	1	0–0
1	MIN	54	td	16	54	0–7
2	IND	76	punt	4	23	0–7
2	MIN	99	fg	3	81	0–10
2	IND	75	turnover	3	25	0–10
2	MIN	79	punt	5	31	0–10
2	IND	89	end half	6	17	0–10
2	IND	73	punt	3	13	0–10
3	MIN	90	punt	6	17	0–10
3	IND	83	turnover	12	9	0–10
3	MIN	8	downs	10	7	0–10
4	IND	99	punt	3	2	0–10
4	MIN	26	td	2	26	0–17
4	IND	65	td	12	65	8–17
4	MIN	71	end half	3	52	8–17

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 25, 8:46 AM ET · before kickoff Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
Seed	e632cd9e · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 42 / margin.median 9 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means MIN 25.52 / IND 16.44
Availability	injuries as of Oct 25, 8:36 AM ET · rosters as of Oct 25, 8:36 AM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873014:204eb84297f1f0aa

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.