CIN @ BAL
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, Sun, Oct 25. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · final
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was CIN 35 – 13 BAL, from the Week 7 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: CIN 35 – 13 BAL
The played game's official lines, recorded Oct 25, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 | 35 |
| BAL | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
Cincinnati Bengals · 35
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 292Forecast 242 (140–383) · in range | 12Forecast 7 (0–29) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 9.3% |
| Tee Higgins | 0 | 0 | 6Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 148Forecast 43 (9–101) · outside range | YesForecast 33.6% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 5 (2–10) · in range | 62Forecast 45 (11–98) · in range | YesForecast 45.0% |
| Chase Brown | 0 | 39Forecast 49 (19–93) · in range | 4Forecast 4 (1–7) · in range | 19Forecast 21 (1–55) · in range | NoForecast 43.2% |
| Erick All Jr. | 0 | 0 | 3 | 26Forecast 12 (0–43) · in range | No |
| Drew Sample | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | Yes |
| Samaje Perine | 0 | 16Forecast 19 (3–53) · in range | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0 | YesForecast 22.4% |
| Mitchell Tinsley | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 7Forecast 12 (0–48) · in range | NoForecast 9.4% |
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 6Forecast 16 (0–54) · in range | YesForecast 22.2% |
| Tahj Brooks | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Dohnte Meyers | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 0Forecast 13 (0–47) · in range | NoForecast 14.7% |
| Andrei IosivasNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–4) | —Forecast 7 (0–38) | —Forecast 12.6% |
| Joe FlaccoNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 4.3% |
| Player lines added up | 292 | 73 | 22 | 292 |
24 other Cincinnati Bengals players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Baltimore Ravens · 13
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 298Forecast 138 (70–241) · outside range | 12Forecast 14 (0–44) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 19.2% |
| Zay Flowers | 0 | 0 | 8Forecast 5.8 (1.9–11.7) · in range | 137Forecast 67 (22–136) · outside range | YesForecast 39.9% |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 45Forecast 76 (36–127) · in range | 1Forecast 1 (0–2.9) · in range | 4 | NoForecast 68.7% |
| Josh Cuevas | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 1 (0–2.9) · in range | 35Forecast 9 (0–41) · in range | NoForecast 10.2% |
| Justice Hill | 0 | 7Forecast 4 (0–34) · in range | 3Forecast 1 (0–3.9) · in range | 26Forecast 9 (0–36) · in range | NoForecast 17.4% |
| Rashod Bateman | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 1.9 (0–4.9) · in range | 33Forecast 20 (0–62) · in range | NoForecast 17.1% |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 1.9 (0–5.8) · in range | 25Forecast 18 (0–55) · in range | NoForecast 18.7% |
| Mark Andrews | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 2.9 (1–7.8) · in range | 23Forecast 27 (4–67) · in range | NoForecast 24.5% |
| Rasheen Ali | 0 | 19 | 0 | 0 | No |
| LaJohntay Wester | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | No |
| Devontez WalkerNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–2.9) | — | —Forecast 10.3% |
| Matt HibnerNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | —Forecast 7 (0–39) | — |
| Player lines added up | 298 | 83 | 23 | 298 |
24 other Baltimore Ravens players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 7 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals39.4% to winPregame projection
22–27
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Baltimore Ravens57.9% to winBaltimore Ravens were the projected winner, 57.9% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
BAL +4
8 in 10 outcomes between -12 and +21
Expected total
49
8 in 10 outcomes between 32 and 66
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Not in this number: This forecast does not account for Lamar Jackson (BAL, Out). Our team model rates teams from past results and does not adjust for who plays quarterback, so it is not compared with the sportsbooks for this game — their price already reflects the absence.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameCIN 22 — 27 BALwin chance CIN 39.4% · BAL 57.9%total 49 (32–66)margin +4
CIN
Likely TD scorers
Ja'Marr Chase 45.0%
Chase Brown 43.2%
Tee Higgins 33.6%
Passing
Joe Burrow 242 pass yds (140–383)
Rushing leaders
Chase Brown 49 rush yds (19–93)
Samaje Perine 19 rush yds (3–53)
Receiving leaders
Ja'Marr Chase 5 rec · 45 yds
Chase Brown 4 rec · 21 yds
Tee Higgins 4 rec · 43 yds
BAL
Likely TD scorers
Derrick Henry 68.7%
Zay Flowers 39.9%
Mark Andrews 24.5%
Passing
Tyler Huntley 138 pass yds (70–241)
Rushing leaders
Derrick Henry 76 rush yds (36–127)
Tyler Huntley 14 rush yds (0–44)
Receiving leaders
Zay Flowers 5.8 rec · 67 yds
Mark Andrews 2.9 rec · 27 yds
Ja'Kobi Lane 1.9 rec · 18 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (6)
- Joe Flacco CIN — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Tanner Hudson CIN — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Josh Johnson CIN — Role not yet observed: no game for CIN yet this season — role at CIN not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 6 games for WSH, 8.3 rush yds · 108.5 pass yds per game.
- Lamar Jackson BAL — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Elijah Sarratt BAL — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Chris Moore BAL — Left the roster: on BAL's practice squad — no game-day elevation source.
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 21 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | BAL | 5.8 (1.9–11.7) | 67 (22–136) | 39.9% | |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | 5 (2–10) | 45 (11–98) | 45.0% | |
| Chase Brown | CIN | 4 (1–7) | 21 (1–55) | 43.2% | |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | 4 (1–9) | 43 (9–101) | 33.6% | |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | 2.9 (1–7.8) | 27 (4–67) | 24.5% | |
| Mike Gesicki | CIN | 2 (0–4) | 16 (0–54) | 22.2% | |
| Dohnte Meyers | CIN | 2 (0–5) | 13 (0–47) | 14.7% | |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | BAL | 1.9 (0–5.8) | 18 (0–55) | 18.7% | |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL | 1.9 (0–4.9) | 20 (0–62) | 17.1% | |
| Samaje Perine | CIN | 1 (0–3) | — | 22.4% | |
| Andrei Iosivas | CIN | 1 (0–4) | 7 (0–38) | 12.6% | |
| Mitchell Tinsley | CIN | 1 (0–3) | 12 (0–48) | 9.4% | |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | 1 (0–2.9) | — | 68.7% | |
| Justice Hill | BAL | 1 (0–3.9) | 9 (0–36) | 17.4% | |
| Devontez Walker | BAL | 1 (0–2.9) | — | 10.3% | |
| Josh Cuevas | BAL | 1 (0–2.9) | 9 (0–41) | 10.2% | |
| Matt Hibner | BAL | — | 7 (0–39) | — | |
| Erick All Jr. | CIN | — | 12 (0–43) | — |
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (6)
- Joe Flacco CIN — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Tanner Hudson CIN — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Josh Johnson CIN — Role not yet observed: no game for CIN yet this season — role at CIN not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 6 games for WSH, 8.3 rush yds · 108.5 pass yds per game.
- Lamar Jackson BAL — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Elijah Sarratt BAL — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Chris Moore BAL — Left the roster: on BAL's practice squad — no game-day elevation source.
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 19 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 68.7% Derrick Henry · BAL
- 45.0% Ja'Marr Chase · CIN
- 43.2% Chase Brown · CIN
- 39.9% Zay Flowers · BAL
- 33.6% Tee Higgins · CIN
- 24.5% Mark Andrews · BAL
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · separate from this Official Forecast
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- c8d7625b6f40edf8
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (947 graded player-games).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1248 graded player-games).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
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