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NFL · CIN @ BAL · Simulation

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

36.3%CIN win in the simulated games

63.2%BAL win in the simulated games

0.5%tie after overtime

3.5%game goes to overtime

CIN 21 – 27 BALmedian score · averages 21.88 – 26.51

48median total · 80% of games 32–65

BAL by 5median margin · 80% range: CIN by 13 to BAL by 22

44.5%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.3% · 6.6%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: BAL points minus CIN points (below 0 means CIN won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (5). Range shown -48 to 60.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (48). Range shown 0 to 100.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
CIN	10	21	34	21.88
BAL	14	27	39	26.51

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	CIN median (80%)	BAL median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	CIN wins it	BAL wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	7 (0–13)	10 (3–18)	36.6%	45.8%	17.7%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	14 (6–24)	36.4%	50.9%	12.7%
Q3	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–20)	34.9%	47.9%	17.2%
Q4	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (3–21)	35.5%	47.9%	16.6%
1st half	10 (3–20)	13 (6–23)	24 (13–37)	37.6%	55.9%	6.6%
2nd half	10 (3–20)	13 (3–21)	23 (12–35)	36.7%	55.3%	8.0%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	CIN	BAL
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (49–75)	63 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (24–43)
Completions	23 (16–31)	23 (16–31)
Passing yards	218 (132–316)	228 (142–324)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	24 (17–33)	27 (18–36)
Rushing yards	110 (51–189)	127 (64–210)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
CIN	6.7%	21.0%	29.6%	24.7%	12.6%	5.5%
BAL	2.8%	12.4%	24.5%	28.1%	19.3%	13.0%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

CIN passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Joe Burrow QB	34 (25–44)	23 (16–31)	218 (132–316)	1.5	0.8

CIN rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Chase Brown RB	13 (8–19)	53 (19–110)	0.5
Joe Burrow QB	5 (3–9)	21 (4–58)	0.1
Samaje Perine RB	5 (2–9)	20 (3–56)	0.2
Tahj Brooks RB	0 (0–1)	0 (0–5)	0.0

CIN receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Ja'Marr Chase WR	7 (4–11)	5 (2–8)	40 (10–89)	0.3
Tee Higgins WR	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	38 (7–89)	0.3
Chase Brown RB	4 (2–7)	3 (1–6)	20 (1–57)	0.2
Mike Gesicki TE	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–48)	0.1
Dohnte Meyers WR	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	11 (0–46)	0.1
Mitchell Tinsley WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–44)	0.1

BAL passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Tyler Huntley QB	33 (24–43)	23 (16–31)	228 (142–324)	1.8	0.6

BAL rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Derrick Henry RB	18 (12–26)	83 (35–149)	0.8
Tyler Huntley QB	6 (3–9)	24 (5–62)	0.2
Justice Hill RB	2 (0–4)	6 (0–30)	0.1
Zay Flowers WR	0 (0–2)	0 (0–10)	0.0

BAL receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Zay Flowers WR	9 (5–13)	6 (3–10)	63 (20–122)	0.5
Mark Andrews TE	5 (2–9)	3 (1–6)	27 (4–70)	0.3
Rashod Bateman WR	3 (1–6)	2 (1–4)	18 (0–58)	0.2
Ja'Kobi Lane WR	3 (1–6)	2 (1–4)	17 (0–55)	0.2
Josh Cuevas TE	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–40)	0.1
Justice Hill RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	9 (0–38)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Derrick Henry RB	BAL	60.0%	21.6%	16.5%
Chase Brown RB	CIN	49.7%	13.4%	12.3%
Zay Flowers WR	BAL	40.8%	8.7%	9.6%
Ja'Marr Chase WR	CIN	26.7%	3.6%	6.3%
Mark Andrews TE	BAL	25.7%	3.5%	6.0%
Tee Higgins WR	CIN	24.6%	2.7%	5.3%
Samaje Perine RB	CIN	24.0%	2.7%	5.0%
Justice Hill RB	BAL	18.9%	1.5%	3.8%
Ja'Kobi Lane WR	BAL	18.4%	1.7%	4.0%
Rashod Bateman WR	BAL	17.6%	1.5%	3.7%
Tyler Huntley QB	BAL	16.8%	1.5%	3.4%
Joe Burrow QB	CIN	13.2%	0.8%	2.4%
Mike Gesicki TE	CIN	12.2%	0.6%	2.5%
Mitchell Tinsley WR	CIN	11.7%	0.7%	2.1%
Josh Cuevas TE	BAL	10.9%	0.6%	2.1%
Dohnte Meyers WR	CIN	10.7%	0.5%	2.0%

First touchdown by team: CIN 43.8% · BAL 56.0% · no offensive touchdown 0.3%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: CIN 22 – 27 BAL

By quarter: CIN 0 / 9 / 3 / 10 · BAL 7 / 13 / 0 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CIN–BAL)
1	BAL	65	punt	3	1	0–0
1	CIN	73	punt	3	25	0–0
1	BAL	99	td	14	99	0–7
1	CIN	65	punt	5	-5	0–7
1	BAL	71	td	9	71	0–13
2	CIN	75	turnover	6	22	0–13
2	BAL	53	safety	1	-47	2–13
2	CIN	57	td	13	57	9–13
2	BAL	65	td	8	65	9–20
2	CIN	74	fg	10	60	12–20
3	BAL	56	downs	8	18	12–20
3	CIN	67	fg	12	66	15–20
4	BAL	87	td	1	87	15–27
4	CIN	74	td	9	74	22–27
4	BAL	64	end half	5	-1	22–27

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: CIN 30 – 35 BAL

By quarter: CIN 7 / 3 / 6 / 14 · BAL 14 / 7 / 0 / 14

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CIN–BAL)
1	CIN	47	td	9	47	7–0
1	BAL	77	td	11	77	7–7
1	CIN	72	punt	6	14	7–7
1	BAL	70	td	14	70	7–14
1	CIN	79	punt	3	16	7–14
2	BAL	90	punt	6	-6	7–14
2	CIN	48	fg	7	30	10–14
2	BAL	63	td	15	63	10–21
2	BAL	65	punt	4	12	10–21
3	CIN	81	td	6	81	16–21
3	BAL	80	punt	3	9	16–21
3	CIN	67	punt	5	6	16–21
3	BAL	92	td	9	92	16–28
4	CIN	54	td	2	54	23–28
4	BAL	86	td	5	86	23–35
4	CIN	65	downs	9	55	23–35
4	BAL	90	opp td	5	57	30–35
4	BAL	66	punt	3	8	30–35
4	CIN	87	turnover	1	7	30–35
4	BAL	20	end half	3	7	30–35

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: CIN 13 – 19 BAL

By quarter: CIN 3 / 10 / 0 / 0 · BAL 3 / 6 / 7 / 3

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (CIN–BAL)
1	CIN	63	fg	13	58	3–0
1	BAL	70	punt	6	20	3–0
1	CIN	96	punt	5	7	3–0
1	BAL	42	fg	9	5	3–3
1	CIN	65	punt	3	3	3–3
2	BAL	79	punt	3	6	3–3
2	CIN	66	td	7	66	10–3
2	BAL	58	fg	9	48	10–6
2	CIN	65	fg	7	31	13–6
2	BAL	65	fg	14	34	13–9
2	BAL	75	td	14	75	13–16
3	CIN	68	punt	6	28	13–16
3	BAL	99	punt	3	4	13–16
3	CIN	42	turnover	3	0	13–16
3	BAL	62	fg miss	15	33	13–16
4	CIN	63	punt	3	0	13–16
4	BAL	80	punt	6	22	13–16
4	CIN	87	downs	8	54	13–16
4	BAL	67	fg	7	56	13–19
4	CIN	61	end half	13	4	13–19

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 24, 6:57 PM ET · before kickoff Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
Seed	06c59b84 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 49 / margin.median 4 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means BAL 26.55 / CIN 22.63
Availability	injuries as of Oct 24, 6:55 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 24, 6:55 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873012:d54e20aa46f0ece3

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.