NE @ CHI
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears, Thu, Oct 22. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 7 · Thursday, Oct 22, 8:15 PM ET · final
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was NE 24 – 30 CHI, from the Week 7 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: NE 24 – 30 CHI
The played game's official lines, recorded Oct 23, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 0 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
| CHI | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 30 |
New England Patriots · 24
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 321Forecast 234 (127–389) · in range | 26Forecast 16 (0–51) · in range | 0 | 0 | YesForecast 14.4% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 0 | 22Forecast 32 (9–69) · in range | 5Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 93Forecast 12 (0–45) · outside range | YesForecast 36.7% |
| Hunter Henry | 0 | 0 | 7Forecast 3 (1–6) · outside range | 71Forecast 26 (0–69) · outside range | NoForecast 26.6% |
| Eli Raridon | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 56Forecast 12 (0–47) · outside range | YesForecast 15.2% |
| A.J. Brown | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 48Forecast 29 (3–71) · in range | NoForecast 32.5% |
| DeMario Douglas | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 23Forecast 28 (2–72) · in range | NoForecast 31.7% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 0 | 9Forecast 25 (5–60) · in range | 2 | 14 | NoForecast 24.9% |
| Efton Chism III | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 16Forecast 11 (0–43) · in range | NoForecast 15.4% |
| Corey Kiner | 0 | 13Forecast 14 (0–45) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 12.5% |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0Forecast 6 (0–41) · in range | NoForecast 12.0% |
| Player lines added up | 321 | 70 | 24 | 321 |
20 other New England Patriots players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Chicago Bears · 30
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 308Forecast 222 (124–363) · in range | 18Forecast 10 (0–41) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 25.0% |
| Luther Burden III | 0 | 7 | 4Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 130Forecast 45 (11–99) · outside range | YesForecast 24.9% |
| D'Andre Swift | 0 | 78Forecast 33 (9–72) · outside range | 4Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 12Forecast 18 (0–53) · in range | YesForecast 63.5% |
| Colston Loveland | 0 | 0 | 7Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 69Forecast 30 (4–77) · in range | YesForecast 19.9% |
| Rome Odunze | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 69Forecast 33 (4–83) · in range | NoForecast 16.3% |
| Cole Kmet | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 28Forecast 6 (0–34) · in range | NoForecast 8.2% |
| Roschon Johnson | 0 | 13Forecast 9 (0–33) · in range | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0Forecast 8 (0–38) · in range | NoForecast 25.9% |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 3 (1–7) · outside range | 0Forecast 25 (1–67) · outside range | NoForecast 16.3% |
| Brittain BrownNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 10.3% |
| Tyson BagentNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 8.3% |
| Player lines added up | 308 | 116 | 22 | 308 |
25 other Chicago Bears players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 7 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 7 · Thursday, Oct 22, 8:15 PM ET · Soldier Field
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
New England Patriots45.2% to winPregame projection
23–24
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Chicago Bears52.0% to winChicago Bears were the projected winner, 52.0% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
CHI +1
8 in 10 outcomes between -16 and +19
Expected total
47
8 in 10 outcomes between 30 and 64
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameNE 23 — 24 CHIwin chance NE 45.2% · CHI 52.0%total 47 (30–64)margin +1
NE
Likely TD scorers
Rhamondre Stevenson 36.7%
A.J. Brown 32.5%
DeMario Douglas 31.7%
Passing
Drake Maye 234 pass yds (127–389)
Rushing leaders
Rhamondre Stevenson 32 rush yds (9–69)
TreVeyon Henderson 25 rush yds (5–60)
Receiving leaders
A.J. Brown 4 rec · 29 yds
DeMario Douglas 3 rec · 28 yds
Hunter Henry 3 rec · 26 yds
CHI
Likely TD scorers
D'Andre Swift 63.5%
Roschon Johnson 25.9%
Caleb Williams 25.0%
Passing
Caleb Williams 222 pass yds (124–363)
Rushing leaders
D'Andre Swift 33 rush yds (9–72)
Caleb Williams 10 rush yds (0–41)
Receiving leaders
Luther Burden III 4 rec · 45 yds
Colston Loveland 3 rec · 30 yds
Rome Odunze 3 rec · 33 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (7)
- Mack Hollins NE — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Romeo Doubs NE — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Reggie Gilliam NE — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Lan Larison NE — Left the roster: not on NE's current roster.
- Tyson Bagent CHI — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Case Keenum CHI — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Kyle Monangai CHI — Not playing: Listed Out.
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 20 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | NE | 4 (1–9) | 29 (3–71) | 32.5% | |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | 4 (1–9) | 45 (11–99) | 24.9% | |
| DeMario Douglas | NE | 3 (1–7) | 28 (2–72) | 31.7% | |
| Hunter Henry | NE | 3 (1–6) | 26 (0–69) | 26.6% | |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | 3 (1–7) | 30 (4–77) | 19.9% | |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | 3 (1–7) | 33 (4–83) | 16.3% | |
| Kalif Raymond | CHI | 3 (1–7) | 25 (1–67) | 16.3% | |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | 2 (0–5) | 18 (0–53) | 63.5% | |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 2 (0–5) | 12 (0–45) | 36.7% | |
| Eli Raridon | NE | 2 (0–4) | 12 (0–47) | 15.2% | |
| Roschon Johnson | CHI | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–38) | 25.9% | |
| Efton Chism III | NE | 1 (0–4) | 11 (0–43) | 15.4% | |
| Kyle Williams | NE | 1 (0–3) | 6 (0–41) | 12.0% | |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | 1 (0–3) | 6 (0–34) | 8.2% |
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (7)
- Mack Hollins NE — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Romeo Doubs NE — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Reggie Gilliam NE — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Lan Larison NE — Left the roster: not on NE's current roster.
- Tyson Bagent CHI — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Case Keenum CHI — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Kyle Monangai CHI — Not playing: Listed Out.
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 20 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 63.5% D'Andre Swift · CHI
- 36.7% Rhamondre Stevenson · NE
- 32.5% A.J. Brown · NE
- 31.7% DeMario Douglas · NE
- 26.6% Hunter Henry · NE
- 25.9% Roschon Johnson · CHI
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · separate from this Official Forecast
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 0e1eaa00cbb904e2
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (947 graded player-games).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1248 graded player-games).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
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