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NFL · NE @ CHI · Simulation

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

45.0%NE win in the simulated games

54.6%CHI win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.4%game goes to overtime

NE 23 – 24 CHImedian score · averages 22.74 – 24.19

47median total · 80% of games 30–64

CHI by 2median margin · 80% range: NE by 16 to CHI by 19

45.7%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

9.2% · 6.8%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: CHI points minus NE points (below 0 means NE won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (2). Range shown -57 to 60.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (47). Range shown 0 to 104.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
NE	10	23	35	22.74
CHI	13	24	37	24.19

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	NE median (80%)	CHI median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	NE wins it	CHI wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	6 (0–12)	10 (3–17)	38.9%	43.3%	17.8%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–23)	41.7%	45.1%	13.2%
Q3	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–18)	39.2%	43.1%	17.7%
Q4	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (3–21)	39.9%	43.8%	16.3%
1st half	10 (3–21)	13 (3–21)	24 (13–36)	44.1%	49.7%	6.2%
2nd half	10 (3–20)	10 (3–21)	22 (11–35)	42.6%	48.5%	8.9%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	NE	CHI
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (50–75)	63 (50–75)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (25–43)
Completions	22 (16–30)	23 (16–31)
Passing yards	215 (129–309)	217 (133–313)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	25 (17–34)	26 (18–35)
Rushing yards	117 (57–196)	120 (59–202)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
NE	6.0%	19.1%	29.3%	25.9%	13.2%	6.4%
CHI	4.5%	16.8%	28.1%	26.8%	15.5%	8.3%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

NE passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Drake Maye QB	33 (24–43)	22 (16–30)	211 (126–306)	1.5	0.8

NE rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Rhamondre Stevenson RB	8 (4–12)	30 (8–75)	0.3
Drake Maye QB	6 (3–10)	27 (6–67)	0.2
TreVeyon Henderson RB	6 (3–10)	24 (4–62)	0.2
Corey Kiner RB	4 (1–7)	13 (1–43)	0.1

NE receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
A.J. Brown WR	8 (4–12)	5 (2–8)	38 (9–89)	0.4
DeMario Douglas WR	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	36 (7–84)	0.3
Hunter Henry TE	5 (2–9)	4 (1–7)	32 (5–78)	0.2
Rhamondre Stevenson RB	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	17 (0–54)	0.2
Eli Raridon TE	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	15 (0–53)	0.1
Efton Chism III WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	14 (0–50)	0.1

CHI passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Caleb Williams QB	33 (25–43)	23 (16–31)	217 (133–313)	1.6	0.7

CHI rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
D'Andre Swift RB	12 (7–17)	49 (17–103)	0.5
Caleb Williams QB	7 (4–11)	34 (9–78)	0.2
Roschon Johnson RB	4 (2–7)	14 (1–44)	0.2
Luther Burden III WR	1 (0–3)	1 (0–15)	0.0

CHI receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Luther Burden III WR	7 (3–10)	5 (2–8)	40 (9–90)	0.3
Rome Odunze WR	5 (2–9)	3 (1–6)	29 (4–76)	0.3
Colston Loveland TE	5 (3–9)	3 (1–6)	28 (4–73)	0.3
Kalif Raymond WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–6)	23 (2–65)	0.2
D'Andre Swift RB	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	16 (0–53)	0.2
Roschon Johnson RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–36)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
D'Andre Swift RB	CHI	47.5%	12.3%	12.5%
Rhamondre Stevenson RB	NE	38.3%	7.5%	8.8%
Luther Burden III WR	CHI	32.1%	5.0%	7.4%
A.J. Brown WR	NE	30.7%	4.7%	7.3%
TreVeyon Henderson RB	NE	27.1%	3.5%	6.1%
DeMario Douglas WR	NE	25.1%	2.9%	5.5%
Colston Loveland TE	CHI	23.9%	2.7%	5.5%
Rome Odunze WR	CHI	23.8%	2.7%	5.6%
Roschon Johnson RB	CHI	23.4%	2.7%	5.4%
Hunter Henry TE	NE	22.0%	2.1%	5.0%
Caleb Williams QB	CHI	21.1%	2.1%	4.6%
Kalif Raymond WR	CHI	19.1%	1.8%	3.9%
Drake Maye QB	NE	15.3%	1.1%	3.2%
Corey Kiner RB	NE	15.0%	0.8%	3.1%
Eli Raridon TE	NE	13.8%	0.8%	2.8%
Efton Chism III WR	NE	13.7%	0.8%	2.7%

First touchdown by team: NE 47.6% · CHI 52.1% · no offensive touchdown 0.3%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: NE 22 – 24 CHI

By quarter: NE 6 / 6 / 0 / 10 · CHI 8 / 7 / 3 / 6

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (NE–CHI)
1	CHI	69	turnover	2	35	0–0
1	NE	61	td	9	61	6–0
1	CHI	69	td	6	69	6–8
1	NE	76	fg	10	57	9–8
2	CHI	71	fg miss	8	41	9–8
2	NE	67	fg	12	39	12–8
2	CHI	57	td	11	57	12–15
2	NE	74	turnover	4	52	12–15
3	CHI	83	punt	6	4	12–15
3	NE	60	turnover	4	0	12–15
3	CHI	66	fg	7	32	12–18
3	NE	34	fg	8	4	15–18
4	CHI	66	fg	8	59	15–21
4	NE	77	td	2	77	22–21
4	CHI	73	fg	11	66	22–24

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: NE 31 – 33 CHI

By quarter: NE 7 / 14 / 7 / 3 · CHI 0 / 3 / 14 / 16

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (NE–CHI)
1	CHI	65	punt	9	0	0–0
1	NE	66	punt	4	2	0–0
1	CHI	72	punt	6	-3	0–0
1	NE	60	td	6	60	7–0
1	CHI	73	turnover	4	-2	7–0
1	NE	51	punt	3	6	7–0
1	CHI	99	fg	9	43	7–3
2	NE	71	fg miss	6	62	7–3
2	CHI	78	punt	3	9	7–3
2	NE	19	td	1	19	14–3
2	CHI	69	punt	6	6	14–3
2	NE	70	td	5	70	21–3
2	CHI	73	end half	1	-1	21–3
2	NE	80	td	1	80	28–3
3	CHI	71	td	9	71	28–10
3	NE	64	punt	3	-2	28–10
3	CHI	67	td	12	67	28–17
3	NE	71	fg	8	69	31–17
4	CHI	65	td	11	65	31–23
4	NE	67	turnover	3	19	31–23
4	CHI	78	td	10	78	31–30
4	NE	87	fg miss	7	57	31–30
4	CHI	62	fg	11	36	31–33

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: NE 14 – 16 CHI

By quarter: NE 7 / 0 / 0 / 7 · CHI 0 / 9 / 0 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (NE–CHI)
1	CHI	72	punt	3	-6	0–0
1	NE	43	td	7	43	7–0
1	CHI	66	fg miss	10	43	7–0
1	NE	69	downs	10	9	7–0
2	CHI	40	td	3	40	7–6
2	NE	73	turnover	4	10	7–6
2	CHI	52	fg	6	28	7–9
2	NE	72	end half	2	54	7–9
2	NE	91	punt	3	8	7–9
3	CHI	54	punt	9	15	7–9
3	NE	99	turnover	11	85	7–9
3	CHI	69	punt	3	1	7–9
3	NE	89	turnover	10	0	7–9
4	CHI	6	td	14	6	7–16
4	NE	72	td	4	72	14–16
4	CHI	55	end half	1	-2	14–16

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 22, 7:55 PM ET · before kickoff Oct 22, 8:15 PM ET
Seed	2dbbbf08 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 47 / margin.median 1 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means CHI 24.1 / NE 23.09
Availability	injuries as of Oct 22, 7:53 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 22, 7:53 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873010:3e86ad4373f7f9b9

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.