MIN @ CHI
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, Sun, Sep 20. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · final
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was MIN 9 – 3 CHI, from the Week 2 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: MIN 9 – 3 CHI
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 20, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Minnesota Vikings · 9
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 143Forecast 177 (92–303) · in range | 6Forecast 5 (0–34) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 10.4% |
| Aaron Jones | 0 | 105Forecast 37 (9–102) · outside range | 0Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 0Forecast 17 (0–49) · in range | NoForecast 45.2% |
| Justin Jefferson | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 7 (2–14) · in range | 55Forecast 77 (34–145) · in range | NoForecast 47.8% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 29Forecast 36 (11–80) · in range | NoForecast 28.1% |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 24Forecast 21 (0–58) · in range | NoForecast 17.6% |
| Jordan Addison | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 21Forecast 22 (0–59) · in range | NoForecast 18.0% |
| DeeJay Dallas | 0 | 8 | 1 | 12 | No |
| Demond Claiborne | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | No |
| J.J. McCarthyNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 180 (93–309) | —Forecast 6 (0–42) | — | — | —Forecast 12.9% |
| Max BrosmerNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 86 (38–166) | — | — | — | — |
| Player lines added up | 143 | 119 | 11 | 143 |
26 other Minnesota Vikings players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Chicago Bears · 3
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 138Forecast 231 (127–381) · in range | 42Forecast 16 (1–68) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 29.7% |
| D'Andre Swift | 0 | 45Forecast 54 (14–141) · in range | 5Forecast 1 (0–3) · outside range | 54Forecast 8 (0–34) · outside range | NoForecast 65.2% |
| Kyle Monangai | 0 | 47Forecast 33 (6–104) · in range | 2Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 11Forecast 13 (0–43) · in range | NoForecast 42.6% |
| Tyson Bagent | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Rome Odunze | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 43Forecast 34 (7–82) · in range | NoForecast 22.7% |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 8 (3–15) · in range | 40Forecast 85 (40–157) · in range | NoForecast 40.8% |
| Luther Burden III | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 32Forecast 42 (13–93) · in range | NoForecast 25.6% |
| Sam Roush | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | No |
| Colston Loveland | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 3Forecast 34 (9–79) · outside range | NoForecast 24.3% |
| Cole Kmet | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 0Forecast 19 (0–55) · in range | NoForecast 18.2% |
| Brittain BrownNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 1 (0–24) | — | — | —Forecast 10.3% |
| Player lines added up | 192 | 134 | 20 | 192 |
23 other Chicago Bears players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 2 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · Soldier Field
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings46.1% to winPregame projection
22–24
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Chicago Bears50.8% to winChicago Bears were the projected winner, 50.8% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
CHI +1
8 in 10 outcomes between -15 and +17
Expected total
46
8 in 10 outcomes between 28 and 62
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameMIN 22 — 24 CHIwin chance MIN 46.1% · CHI 50.8%total 46 (28–62)margin +1
MIN
Likely TD scorers
Justin Jefferson 47.8%
Aaron Jones 45.2%
T.J. Hockenson 28.1%
Passing
J.J. McCarthy 180 pass yds (93–309)
Rushing leaders
Aaron Jones 37 rush yds (9–102)
J.J. McCarthy 6 rush yds (0–42)
Receiving leaders
Justin Jefferson 7 rec · 77 yds
T.J. Hockenson 4 rec · 36 yds
Aaron Jones 2 rec · 17 yds
CHI
Likely TD scorers
D'Andre Swift 65.2%
Kyle Monangai 42.6%
Kalif Raymond 40.8%
Passing
Caleb Williams 231 pass yds (127–381)
Rushing leaders
D'Andre Swift 54 rush yds (14–141)
Kyle Monangai 33 rush yds (6–104)
Receiving leaders
Kalif Raymond 8 rec · 85 yds
Luther Burden III 4 rec · 42 yds
Colston Loveland 3 rec · 34 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
50.8%
CHI to win
Sportsbook win chance
65.8%
CHI to win, read from 9 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-15.1 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
46 vs 47
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 17 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalif Raymond | CHI | 8 (3–15) | 85 (40–157) | 40.8% | |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | 7 (2–14) | 77 (34–145) | 47.8% | |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | 4 (1–8) | 36 (11–80) | 28.1% | |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | 4 (1–8) | 42 (13–93) | 25.6% | |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | 3 (1–7) | 34 (9–79) | 24.3% | |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | 3 (1–6) | 34 (7–82) | 22.7% | |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | 2 (0–5) | 17 (0–49) | 45.2% | |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | 2 (0–5) | 19 (0–55) | 18.2% | |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | 2 (0–5) | 22 (0–59) | 18.0% | |
| Josh Oliver | MIN | 2 (0–5) | 21 (0–58) | 17.6% | |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–34) | 65.2% | |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | 1 (0–4) | 13 (0–43) | 42.6% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 16 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 65.2% D'Andre Swift · CHI
- 47.8% Justin Jefferson · MIN
- 45.2% Aaron Jones · MIN
- 42.6% Kyle Monangai · CHI
- 40.8% Kalif Raymond · CHI
- 29.7% Caleb Williams · CHI
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- aeb1ad509cd2af27
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
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- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
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- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET