CIN @ HOU
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans, Sun, Sep 20. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · final
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was CIN 20 – 6 HOU, from the Week 2 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: CIN 20 – 6 HOU
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 20, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Cincinnati Bengals · 20
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 207Forecast 226 (127–364) · in range | -1Forecast 6 (0–39) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 9.3% |
| Tee Higgins | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 95Forecast 42 (13–95) · in range | NoForecast 29.5% |
| Chase Brown | 0 | 80Forecast 54 (15–134) · in range | 3Forecast 4 (1–7) · in range | 2Forecast 31 (9–69) · outside range | NoForecast 55.4% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 0 | 0 | 7Forecast 5 (1–9) · in range | 75Forecast 49 (18–103) · in range | YesForecast 31.3% |
| Samaje Perine | 0 | 6Forecast 16 (2–65) · in range | 1Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 16Forecast 13 (0–41) · in range | NoForecast 25.7% |
| Andrei Iosivas | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 7Forecast 17 (0–50) · in range | NoForecast 14.0% |
| Colbie Young | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | No |
| Erick All Jr. | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | No |
| Drew SampleNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 11 (0–38) | —Forecast 9.6% |
| Joe FlaccoNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 104 (48–192) | —Forecast 1 (0–20) | — | — | —Forecast 5.3% |
| Kendall MiltonNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 3 (0–30) | — | — | —Forecast 7.4% |
| Mike GesickiNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 3 (1–6) | —Forecast 33 (8–78) | —Forecast 23.9% |
| Player lines added up | 207 | 85 | 20 | 207 |
25 other Cincinnati Bengals players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Houston Texans · 6
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 353Forecast 216 (120–354) · in range | 29Forecast 2 (0–29) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 6.9% |
| Dalton Schultz | 0 | 0 | 12Forecast 4 (1–8) · outside range | 140Forecast 37 (12–83) · outside range | NoForecast 22.8% |
| Jaylin Noel | 0 | 13 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 31Forecast 9 (0–38) · in range | NoForecast 8.2% |
| Kayshon Boutte | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 37Forecast 8 (0–38) · in range | NoForecast 8.7% |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 37Forecast 30 (7–72) · in range | NoForecast 20.2% |
| Woody Marks | 0 | 8Forecast 36 (8–100) · in range | 5 | 27 | NoForecast 30.8% |
| Foster Moreau | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 34Forecast 9 (0–35) · in range | NoForecast 8.1% |
| Jared Wayne | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33 | No |
| David Montgomery | 0 | 10Forecast 56 (17–135) · outside range | 2Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 14Forecast 16 (0–46) · in range | NoForecast 59.8% |
| British Brooks | 0 | 0Forecast 0 (0–20) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 4.5% |
| Davis MillsNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 135 (67–237) | —Forecast 2 (0–27) | — | — | —Forecast 6.6% |
| Jawhar JordanNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 28 (5–88) | — | — | —Forecast 28.4% |
| Tank DellNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 4 (1–8) | —Forecast 38 (11–85) | —Forecast 25.2% |
| Player lines added up | 353 | 60 | 30 | 353 |
19 other Houston Texans players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 2 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · Reliant Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals32.1% to winPregame projection
22–27
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Houston Texans64.8% to winHouston Texans were the projected winner, 64.8% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
HOU +5
8 in 10 outcomes between -12 and +21
Expected total
49
8 in 10 outcomes between 32 and 66
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameCIN 22 — 27 HOUwin chance CIN 32.1% · HOU 64.8%total 49 (32–66)margin +5
CIN
Likely TD scorers
Chase Brown 55.4%
Ja'Marr Chase 31.3%
Tee Higgins 29.5%
Passing
Joe Flacco 104 pass yds (48–192)
Rushing leaders
Chase Brown 54 rush yds (15–134)
Samaje Perine 16 rush yds (2–65)
Receiving leaders
Ja'Marr Chase 5 rec · 49 yds
Chase Brown 4 rec · 31 yds
Tee Higgins 4 rec · 42 yds
HOU
Likely TD scorers
David Montgomery 59.8%
Woody Marks 30.8%
Jawhar Jordan 28.4%
Passing
C.J. Stroud 216 pass yds (120–354)
Rushing leaders
David Montgomery 56 rush yds (17–135)
Woody Marks 36 rush yds (8–100)
Receiving leaders
Tank Dell 4 rec · 38 yds
Dalton Schultz 4 rec · 37 yds
Xavier Hutchinson 3 rec · 30 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
64.8%
HOU to win
Sportsbook win chance
57.8%
HOU to win, read from 9 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
+7 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
49 vs 45.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 22 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | 5 (1–9) | 49 (18–103) | 31.3% | |
| Chase Brown | CIN | 4 (1–7) | 31 (9–69) | 55.4% | |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | 4 (1–8) | 42 (13–95) | 29.5% | |
| Tank Dell | HOU | 4 (1–8) | 38 (11–85) | 25.2% | |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | 4 (1–8) | 37 (12–83) | 22.8% | |
| Mike Gesicki | CIN | 3 (1–6) | 33 (8–78) | 23.9% | |
| Xavier Hutchinson | HOU | 3 (1–6) | 30 (7–72) | 20.2% | |
| David Montgomery | HOU | 2 (0–4) | 16 (0–46) | 59.8% | |
| Andrei Iosivas | CIN | 2 (0–4) | 17 (0–50) | 14.0% | |
| Samaje Perine | CIN | 1 (0–4) | 13 (0–41) | 25.7% | |
| Drew Sample | CIN | 1 (0–3) | 11 (0–38) | 9.6% | |
| Kayshon Boutte | HOU | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–38) | 8.7% | |
| Jaylin Noel | HOU | 1 (0–3) | 9 (0–38) | 8.2% | |
| Foster Moreau | HOU | 1 (0–3) | 9 (0–35) | 8.1% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 21 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 59.8% David Montgomery · HOU
- 55.4% Chase Brown · CIN
- 31.3% Ja'Marr Chase · CIN
- 30.8% Woody Marks · HOU
- 29.5% Tee Higgins · CIN
- 28.4% Jawhar Jordan · HOU
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- ce3aed0c8257c6b0
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
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