NYJ @ TEN
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans, Sun, Sep 13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · final
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was NYJ 23 – 10 TEN, from the Week 1 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: NYJ 23 – 10 TEN
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 14, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
New York Jets · 23
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 215 | 7 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Breece Hall | 0 | 102Forecast 47 (16–92) · outside range | 2Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 16Forecast 10 (0–41) · in range | YesForecast 38.9% |
| Garrett Wilson | 0 | 0 | 6Forecast 5 (2–9) · in range | 79Forecast 51 (15–105) · in range | NoForecast 33.1% |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 60Forecast 30 (4–76) · in range | NoForecast 20.0% |
| Braelon Allen | 0 | 40Forecast 8 (0–34) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 10.6% |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | 0 | 0 | 1 | 30 | No |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 0 | 3 | 3 | 21 | Yes |
| Isaiah Williams | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 7Forecast 20 (0–60) · in range | No |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 4Forecast 9 (0–39) · in range | NoForecast 11.4% |
| Andrew BeckNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 31.1% |
| Isaiah DavisNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 5 (0–30) | — | — | —Forecast 15.0% |
| Mason Taylor | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | -2Forecast 27 (2–69) · outside range | NoForecast 8.9% |
| Player lines added up | 215 | 152 | 19 | 215 |
21 other New York Jets players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Tennessee Titans · 10
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 140Forecast 126 (31–237) · in range | 21Forecast 4 (0–25) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 30.7% |
| Carnell Tate | 0 | 0 | 4 | 38 | No |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 0 | 0 | 5 | 38 | No |
| Tony Pollard | 0 | 35Forecast 55 (21–106) · in range | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | -1Forecast 5 (0–32) · outside range | NoForecast 20.7% |
| Gunnar Helm | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 28Forecast 15 (0–48) · in range | NoForecast 14.7% |
| Tyjae Spears | 0 | 12Forecast 15 (1–44) · in range | 2Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 12Forecast 18 (0–53) · in range | NoForecast 14.8% |
| Elic Ayomanor | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 2 (1–5) · in range | 11Forecast 26 (0–68) · in range | YesForecast 22.7% |
| Chimere Dike | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 7Forecast 22 (0–63) · in range | NoForecast 23.2% |
| Daniel Bellinger | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | No |
| Jeffery Simmons | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 9.6% |
| Calvin RidleyNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 2 (0–4) | —Forecast 20 (0–61) | — |
| David Martin-RobinsonNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 14.4% |
| Player lines added up | 140 | 68 | 19 | 140 |
20 other Tennessee Titans players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 1 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
New York Jets43.5% to winPregame projection
23–25
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Tennessee Titans53.6% to winTennessee Titans were the projected winner, 53.6% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
TEN +2
8 in 10 outcomes between -15 and +20
Expected total
48
8 in 10 outcomes between 31 and 64
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameNYJ 23 — 25 TENwin chance NYJ 43.5% · TEN 53.6%total 48 (31–64)margin +2
NYJ
Likely TD scorers
Breece Hall 38.9%
Garrett Wilson 33.1%
Andrew Beck 31.1%
Rushing leaders
Breece Hall 47 rush yds (16–92)
Braelon Allen 8 rush yds (0–34)
Receiving leaders
Garrett Wilson 5 rec · 51 yds
Adonai Mitchell 3 rec · 30 yds
Mason Taylor 3 rec · 27 yds
TEN
Likely TD scorers
Cam Ward 30.7%
Chimere Dike 23.2%
Elic Ayomanor 22.7%
Passing
Cam Ward 126 pass yds (31–237)
Rushing leaders
Tony Pollard 55 rush yds (21–106)
Tyjae Spears 15 rush yds (1–44)
Receiving leaders
Chimere Dike 2 rec · 22 yds
Elic Ayomanor 2 rec · 26 yds
Tyjae Spears 2 rec · 18 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
53.6%
TEN to win
Sportsbook win chance
51.8%
TEN to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
+1.8 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
48 vs 38.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 18 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | projected active | 5 (2–9) | 51 (15–105) | 33.1% |
| Adonai Mitchell | NYJ | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 30 (4–76) | 20.0% |
| Mason Taylor | NYJ | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 27 (2–69) | 8.9% |
| Chimere Dike | TEN | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 22 (0–63) | 23.2% |
| Elic Ayomanor | TEN | projected active | 2 (1–5) | 26 (0–68) | 22.7% |
| Tyjae Spears | TEN | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 18 (0–53) | 14.8% |
| Gunnar Helm | TEN | projected active | 2 (0–4) | 15 (0–48) | 14.7% |
| Calvin Ridley | TEN | 2 (0–4) | 20 (0–61) | — | |
| Isaiah Williams | NYJ | 2 (0–5) | 20 (0–60) | — | |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | projected active | 1 (0–4) | 10 (0–41) | 38.9% |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 5 (0–32) | 20.7% |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 9 (0–39) | 11.4% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 16 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 38.9% Breece Hall · NYJ
- 33.1% Garrett Wilson · NYJ
- 31.1% Andrew Beck · NYJ
- 30.7% Cam Ward · TEN
- 23.2% Chimere Dike · TEN
- 22.7% Elic Ayomanor · TEN
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 602892257ac44d87
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ PITSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET