NYJ @ TEN
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans, 2026-09-13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · started
New York Jetsat
Tennessee TitansEXPERIMENTAL
Nissan Stadium
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was NYJ 23 – 10 TEN, from the Week 1 record.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Simulation
What our model expects
10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1
Projected score
NYJ 23 — 25 TEN
the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Win chance
NYJ 43.5% · TEN 53.6%
how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.9%
Total points (both teams)
48
8 in 10 simulations landed between 31 and 64
TEN winning margin
+2
a minus means NYJ wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -15 and 20
Model details
From the replay-validated Elo-logistic head, published exactly as evaluated on a held-out 2025 season — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to beat the market is made. Generated 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameNYJ 23 — 25 TENwin chance NYJ 43.5% · TEN 53.6%total 48 (31–64)margin +2
NYJ
Likely TD scorers
Breece Hall 38.9%
Garrett Wilson 33.1%
Andrew Beck 31.1%
Rushing leaders
Breece Hall 47 rush yds (16–92)
Braelon Allen 8 rush yds (0–34)
New arrivals · not in these numbers
Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.
Geno Smith 173.4 pass yds/g at LV
Receiving leaders
Garrett Wilson 5 rec · 51 yds
Adonai Mitchell 3 rec · 30 yds
Mason Taylor 3 rec · 27 yds
TEN
Likely TD scorers
Cam Ward 30.7%
Chimere Dike 23.2%
Elic Ayomanor 22.7%
Passing
Cam Ward 126 pass yds (31–237)
Rushing leaders
Tony Pollard 55 rush yds (21–106)
Tyjae Spears 15 rush yds (1–44)
New arrivals · not in these numbers
Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.
Michael Carter 2.4 rec · 17.5 yds/g at ARI
Wan'Dale Robinson 5.2 rec · 57.3 yds/g at NYG
Receiving leaders
Chimere Dike 2 rec · 22 yds
Elic Ayomanor 2 rec · 26 yds
Tyjae Spears 2 rec · 18 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Range
How wide the outcomes are
the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score
| Team | Low (10th) | Projected | High (90th) |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 10 | 23 | 35 |
| Tennessee Titans | 13 | 25 | 37 |
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
53.6%
TEN to win
Sportsbook win chance
51.8%
TEN to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
+1.8 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
48 vs 38.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z — before kickoff.
Player projections · 18 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | projected active | 5 (2–9) | 51 (15–105) | 33.1% |
| Adonai Mitchell | NYJ | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 30 (4–76) | 20.0% |
| Mason Taylor | NYJ | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 27 (2–69) | 8.9% |
| Chimere Dike | TEN | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 22 (0–63) | 23.2% |
| Elic Ayomanor | TEN | projected active | 2 (1–5) | 26 (0–68) | 22.7% |
| Tyjae Spears | TEN | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 18 (0–53) | 14.8% |
| Gunnar Helm | TEN | projected active | 2 (0–4) | 15 (0–48) | 14.7% |
| Calvin Ridley | TEN | role uncertain | 2 (0–4) | 20 (0–61) | — |
| Isaiah Williams | NYJ | role uncertain | 2 (0–5) | 20 (0–60) | — |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | projected active | 1 (0–4) | 10 (0–41) | 38.9% |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 5 (0–32) | 20.7% |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 9 (0–39) | 11.4% |
New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above
Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.
| Player | Team | Availability | Last club | Per game (prior club) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter RB | TEN | active uncertain | ARI · 16g | 2.4 rec · 17.5 yds · 25.6 rush yds |
| Wan'Dale Robinson WR | TEN | active uncertain | NYG · 18g | 5.2 rec · 57.3 yds |
| Geno Smith QB | NYJ | active uncertain | LV · 18g | 6.1 rush yds · 173.4 pass yds |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 16 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 38.9% Breece Hall · NYJ
- 33.1% Garrett Wilson · NYJ
- 31.1% Andrew Beck · NYJ
- 30.7% Cam Ward · TEN
- 23.2% Chimere Dike · TEN
- 22.7% Elic Ayomanor · TEN
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Experimental
- Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.
Provenance
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 602892257ac44d87
- generated
- 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z
- kickoff
- 2026-09-13T17:00Z
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- DET @ BUFThursday, Sep 17, 8:15 PM ET
- CAR @ ATLSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ CHISunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- PHI @ TENSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- PIT @ NESunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- GB @ NYJSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ TBSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- NO @ BALSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- CIN @ HOUSunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET
- JAX @ DENSunday, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET
- LV @ LACSunday, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET
- WSH @ DALSunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET
- SEA @ ARISunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET
- MIA @ SFSunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET
- IND @ KCSunday, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET
- NYG @ LARMonday, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET