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Bout 7 of 14

Thomas Petersen vs Gabriel Lorenço

Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM ET · Heavyweight · 3 rounds · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Meta APEX

Fight history: Thomas Petersen

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Thomas Petersen vs Gabriel Lorenço

Heavyweight, 3 rounds on UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker. The model read both fighters' histories.

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64dno run count recordedproduced Nov 1, 1:21 PM ET

How much history is behind this. Gabriel Lorenço has no tracked UFC bouts in our corpus, so this read leans on Thomas Petersen's 7 tracked bouts and on league-average priors for Gabriel Lorenço. Treat it as weaker than a bout where both fighters have at least 2 tracked bouts.

Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Thomas PetersenThomas Petersen11-5-0
vs
Gabriel LorençoGabriel Lorenço8-1-0
Model pickThomas Petersen · 51.9%Decision 42.7% · Ends in round 3 or later 50.4%
11-5-0Record8-1-0
7Tracked bouts0
51.9%Win chance48.0%
Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO41.9%
Submission15.4%
Decision42.7%
Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

35
R1
15
R2
50
R3+
Ends in round 1
34.6%
Ends in round 2
15.0%
Ends in round 3 or later
50.4%
Goes the distance
42.7%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Thomas Petersen
11-5-0
Tracked record

2-3 in the last 5 tracked bouts. 0 of 3 wins came by finish (0%); 4 of 7 tracked fights reached the judges (57%).

Strengths · weaknesses
− 57% of tracked bouts are losses (4 of 7)
Tendencies
· Wins rarely come inside the distance — 0 of 3
· Most losses come inside the distance — 3 of 4 (2 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
Last 5 tracked
LValter WalkerSubmission R1
WGuilherme PatDecision R3
LVitor PetrinoKO / TKO R3
WDon'Tale MayesDecision R3
LShamil GazievKO / TKO R1
Gabriel Lorenço
8-1-0
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50.0% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

Generated

Technical detailsModel fingerprint and the fight corpus it was fitted on.
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

More

Other bouts on this card