Skip to main content
Educational analyticsNot betting advice · research use only.
GameTime Picks
Today · Nov 1 · 17 eventsGames under wayLatest results· Oct 31
← Fight card

Bout 5 of 14

Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando

Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM ET · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Meta APEX

Fight history: Billy Elekana · Lucas Fernando

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando

Light Heavyweight, 3 rounds on UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker. The model read both fighters' histories.

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64dno run count recordedproduced Nov 1, 1:21 PM ET

How much history is behind this. Lucas Fernando has no tracked UFC bouts in our corpus, so this read leans on Billy Elekana's 4 tracked bouts and on league-average priors for Lucas Fernando. Treat it as weaker than a bout where both fighters have at least 2 tracked bouts.

Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Billy ElekanaBilly Elekana10-2-0
vs
Lucas FernandoLucas Fernando14-3-0
Model pickBilly Elekana · 62.3%Decision 38.0% · Ends in round 3 or later 45.1%
10-2-0Record14-3-0
4Tracked bouts0
62.3%Win chance37.7%
Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO32.7%
Submission29.3%
Decision38.0%
Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

37
R1
18
R2
45
R3+
Ends in round 1
36.7%
Ends in round 2
18.2%
Ends in round 3 or later
45.1%
Goes the distance
38.0%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Billy Elekana
10-2-0
Tracked record

3-1 in the last 4 tracked bouts. 2 of 3 wins came by finish (67%); 1 of 4 tracked fights reached the judges (25%).

Tendencies
· Most wins come inside the distance — 2 of 3, mostly by submission (0 KO/TKO, 2 submission)
Not established
? Only 4 tracked bouts — too few to call a strength or weakness (needs 5)
? Only 1 tracked loss — too few to say how fights are lost; absence of data, not absence of weakness
Last 4 tracked
WJunior TafaSubmission R2
WKevin ChristianSubmission R1
WIbo AslanDecision R3
LBogdan GuskovSubmission R2
Lucas Fernando
14-3-0
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50.0% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

Generated

Technical detailsModel fingerprint and the fight corpus it was fitted on.
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

More

Other bouts on this card