Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid

Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM ET · Featherweight · 3 rounds · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Meta APEX

Fight history: Keiichiro Nakamura · Ollie Schmid

No simulation story for this event: Neither fighter has enough UFC history in our corpus to build a read from.

No model read for this bout. Neither fighter has enough UFC history in our corpus to build a read from.

Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Keiichiro Nakamura8-1-0

Ollie Schmid4-3-0

8-1-0Record4-3-0

1Tracked bouts1

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Keiichiro Nakamura

8-1-0

Tracked record

1-0 in the last 1 tracked bout. 1 of 1 win came by finish (100%); 0 of 1 tracked fight reached the judges (0%).

Not established

? Only 1 tracked bout — too few to name a strength, weakness or tendency

Last 1 tracked

WSebastian SzalayKO / TKO R3

Ollie Schmid

4-3-0

Tracked record

0-1 in the last 1 tracked bout. No tracked wins; 0 of 1 tracked fight reached the judges (0%).

Not established

? Only 1 tracked bout — too few to name a strength, weakness or tendency

Last 1 tracked

LMarwan RahikiKO / TKO R1

Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50.0% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931

Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255

Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

Generated Nov 1, 1:21 PM ET

Technical detailsModel fingerprint and the fight corpus it was fitted on.

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d

corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

Who the model expects to win

What the corpus knows about each of them

Where these numbers come from

Other bouts on this card