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Johnny Walker vs Waldo Cortes Acosta

Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM ET · Heavyweight · 5 rounds · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Meta APEX

Fight history: Johnny Walker · Waldo Cortes Acosta

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Johnny Walker vs Waldo Cortes Acosta

Heavyweight, 5 rounds on UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker. The model read both fighters' histories.

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64dno run count recordedproduced Nov 1, 1:21 PM ET
Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Johnny WalkerJohnny Walker23-10-0
vs
Waldo Cortes AcostaWaldo Cortes Acosta17-4-0
Model pickWaldo Cortes Acosta · 65.5%KO / TKO 62.8% · Ends in round 3 or later 54.4%
23-10-0Record17-4-0
15Tracked bouts13
34.5%Win chance65.5%

From the tracked records (a summary, not the model's reasoning): Waldo Cortes Acosta has won 10 of 13 tracked bouts (77%) to Walker's 8 of 15 (53%). The model's method read makes a KO/TKO more likely than not (63%).

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO62.8%
Submission8.3%
Decision28.9%
Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

28
R1
18
R2
54
R3+
Ends in round 1
27.7%
Ends in round 2
17.9%
Ends in round 3 or later
54.4%
Goes the distance
28.9%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Johnny Walker
23-10-0
Tracked record

2-3 in the last 5 tracked bouts. 7 of 8 wins came by finish (88%); 4 of 15 tracked fights reached the judges (27%).

Tendencies
· Most wins come inside the distance — 7 of 8, mostly by KO/TKO (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
Not established
? Neither a strength nor a weakness: 53% win rate across 15 tracked bouts (8-7)
Last 5 tracked
LDominick ReyesDecision R3
WZhang MingyangKO / TKO R2
LVolkan OezdemirKO / TKO R1
LMagomed AnkalaevKO / TKO R2
WAnthony SmithDecision R3
Waldo Cortes Acosta
17-4-0
Tracked record

3-2 in the last 5 tracked bouts. 5 of 10 wins came by finish (50%); 8 of 13 tracked fights reached the judges (62%).

Strengths · weaknesses
+ 77% win rate across 13 tracked bouts (10-3)
Tendencies
· Often goes the distance — 8 of 13 tracked fights reached the judges
· 5 KO/TKO wins across 13 tracked bouts
Last 5 tracked
LAlexander VolkovDecision R3
WDerrick LewisKO / TKO R2
WShamil GazievKO / TKO R1
WAnte DelijaKO / TKO R1
LSergei PavlovichDecision R3
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50.0% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

Generated

Technical detailsModel fingerprint and the fight corpus it was fitted on.
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

More

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