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Bout 12 of 14

Lucas Brennan vs Austin Bashi

Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM ET · Featherweight · 3 rounds · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Meta APEX

Fight history: Lucas Brennan · Austin Bashi

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Lucas Brennan vs Austin Bashi

Featherweight, 3 rounds on UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker. The model read both fighters' histories.

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64dno run count recordedproduced Nov 1, 1:21 PM ET

How much history is behind this. Lucas Brennan has only 1 tracked UFC bout in our corpus (fewer than the 2 we count as known), so this read leans on Austin Bashi's 3 tracked bouts and on league-average priors for Lucas Brennan. Treat it as weaker than a bout where both fighters have at least 2 tracked bouts.

Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Lucas BrennanLucas Brennan11-3-0
vs
Austin BashiAustin Bashi14-2-0
Model pickAustin Bashi · 55.2%Decision 48.0% · Ends in round 3 or later 55.6%
11-3-0Record14-2-0
1Tracked bouts3
44.8%Win chance55.2%

From the tracked records (a summary, not the model's reasoning): Austin Bashi has won 1 of 3 tracked bouts (33%) to Brennan's 0 of 1 (0%); Bashi has finished 1 of 1 win (100%). The model's method read has a decision as the most likely of three endings (48%), short of a majority.

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO27.4%
Submission24.7%
Decision48.0%
Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

29
R1
16
R2
56
R3+
Ends in round 1
28.5%
Ends in round 2
15.8%
Ends in round 3 or later
55.6%
Goes the distance
48.0%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Lucas Brennan
11-3-0
Tracked record

0-1 in the last 1 tracked bout. No tracked wins; 1 of 1 tracked fight reached the judges (100%).

Not established
? Only 1 tracked bout — too few to name a strength, weakness or tendency
Last 1 tracked
LFrancis MarshallDecision R3
Austin Bashi
14-2-0
Tracked record

1-2 in the last 3 tracked bouts. 1 of 1 win came by finish (100%); 2 of 3 tracked fights reached the judges (67%).

Not established
? Only 3 tracked bouts — too few to call a strength or weakness (needs 5)
? Only 2 tracked losses — too few to say how fights are lost; absence of data, not absence of weakness
Last 3 tracked
LJose DelgadoDecision R3
WJohn YannisSubmission R1
LChristian RodriguezDecision R3
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50.0% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

Generated

Technical detailsModel fingerprint and the fight corpus it was fitted on.
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

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