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Bout 13 of 14

Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Milošević

Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM ET · W Bantamweight · 3 rounds · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Meta APEX

Fight history: Priscila Cachoeira · Nina Milošević

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Milošević

W Bantamweight, 3 rounds on UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker. The model read both fighters' histories.

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64dno run count recordedproduced Nov 1, 1:21 PM ET

How much history is behind this. Nina Milošević has only 1 tracked UFC bout in our corpus (fewer than the 2 we count as known), so this read leans on Priscila Cachoeira's 14 tracked bouts and on league-average priors for Nina Milošević. Treat it as weaker than a bout where both fighters have at least 2 tracked bouts.

Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Priscila CachoeiraPriscila Cachoeira13-9-0
vs
Nina MiloševićNina Milošević9-1-0
Model pickNina Milošević · 74.4%Decision 43.9% · Ends in round 3 or later 50.5%
13-9-0Record9-1-0
14Tracked bouts1
25.6%Win chance74.4%

From the tracked records (a summary, not the model's reasoning): Nina Milošević has won 1 of 1 tracked bouts (100%) to Cachoeira's 5 of 14 (36%); Milošević has finished 1 of 1 win (100%), and Cachoeira has been finished in 6 of 9 losses (67%). The model's method read has a decision as the most likely of three endings (44%), short of a majority.

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO39.9%
Submission16.2%
Decision43.9%
Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

35
R1
14
R2
51
R3+
Ends in round 1
35.1%
Ends in round 2
14.3%
Ends in round 3 or later
50.5%
Goes the distance
43.9%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Priscila Cachoeira
13-9-0
Tracked record

1-4 in the last 5 tracked bouts. 4 of 5 wins came by finish (80%); 4 of 14 tracked fights reached the judges (29%).

Strengths · weaknesses
− 64% of tracked bouts are losses (9 of 14)
Tendencies
· Most wins come inside the distance — 4 of 5, mostly by KO/TKO (4 KO/TKO, 0 submission)
· Most losses come inside the distance — 6 of 9 (1 KO/TKO, 5 submission)
Last 5 tracked
LChelsea ChandlerSubmission R1
LKlaudia SygulaDecision R3
LJoselyne EdwardsKO / TKO R1
WJosiane NunesKO / TKO R1
LJasmine JasudaviciusSubmission R3
Nina Milošević
9-1-0
Tracked record

1-0 in the last 1 tracked bout. 1 of 1 win came by finish (100%); 0 of 1 tracked fight reached the judges (0%).

Not established
? Only 1 tracked bout — too few to name a strength, weakness or tendency
Last 1 tracked
WHailey CowanKO / TKO R1
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50.0% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

Generated

Technical detailsModel fingerprint and the fight corpus it was fitted on.
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

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