DEN @ ARI
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals, Sun, Oct 25. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET · final
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was DEN 30 – 16 ARI, from the Week 7 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: DEN 30 – 16 ARI
The played game's official lines, recorded Oct 25, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 6 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 30 |
| ARI | 0 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 16 |
Denver Broncos · 30
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 222Forecast 183 (100–302) · in range | 73Forecast 8 (0–30) · outside range | 0 | 0 | YesForecast 14.0% |
| Jonah Coleman | 0 | 54Forecast 11 (0–39) · outside range | 2Forecast 1 (0–2.9) · in range | 15 | NoForecast 23.9% |
| RJ Harvey | 0 | 6Forecast 15 (1–44) · in range | 2Forecast 2.9 (1–6.7) · in range | 54Forecast 22 (1–58) · in range | YesForecast 32.5% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 0 | 3 | 2Forecast 1.9 (0–4.8) · in range | 53Forecast 11 (0–43) · outside range | NoForecast 12.6% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 3.8 (1–8.6) · in range | 48Forecast 30 (5–75) · in range | NoForecast 25.5% |
| Courtland Sutton | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 2.9 (0–5.7) · in range | 45Forecast 18 (0–56) · in range | NoForecast 19.4% |
| J.K. Dobbins | 0 | 23Forecast 44 (17–83) · in range | 0Forecast 1 (0–2.9) · in range | 0 | YesForecast 41.7% |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5Forecast 5 (0–33) · in range | No |
| Evan Engram | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1.9 (0–4.8) · in range | 2Forecast 13 (0–48) · in range | NoForecast 13.5% |
| Troy Franklin | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 1 (0–2.9) · in range | 0Forecast 5 (0–33) · in range | NoForecast 7.5% |
| Jarrett StidhamNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 7.8% |
| Pat BryantNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1.9 (0–3.8) | —Forecast 12 (0–49) | —Forecast 13.1% |
| Player lines added up | 222 | 159 | 15 | 222 |
26 other Denver Broncos players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Arizona Cardinals · 16
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 272Forecast 208 (120–331) · in range | 16Forecast 2 (0–20) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 8.3% |
| Trey McBride | 0 | 0 | 10Forecast 7 (3–13) · in range | 111Forecast 44 (13–89) · outside range | YesForecast 36.9% |
| Michael Wilson | 0 | 11 | 4Forecast 5 (2–10) · in range | 55Forecast 36 (7–82) · in range | NoForecast 28.2% |
| Bam Knight | 0 | 48Forecast 10 (0–40) · outside range | 3 | 15 | NoForecast 15.1% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 0 | 19Forecast 11 (1–36) · in range | 3Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 30 | NoForecast 23.7% |
| Jalen Brooks | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 35 | NoForecast 7.6% |
| Elijah Higgins | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 17 | NoForecast 9.2% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 9Forecast 25 (1–67) · in range | NoForecast 15.8% |
| Reggie VirgilNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | —Forecast 8 (0–39) | — |
| Trey BensonNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 9 (0–36) | —Forecast 2 (0–5) | —Forecast 9 (0–40) | —Forecast 29.3% |
| Player lines added up | 272 | 94 | 27 | 272 |
22 other Arizona Cardinals players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 7 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET · State Farm Stadium
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
Denver Broncos72.7% to winPregame projection
26–20
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Arizona Cardinals24.9% to winDenver Broncos were the projected winner, 72.7% to win.
About 2% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
ARI -7
8 in 10 outcomes between -24 and +10
Expected total
46
8 in 10 outcomes between 29 and 63
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameDEN 26 — 20 ARIwin chance DEN 72.7% · ARI 24.9%total 46 (29–63)margin -7
DEN
Likely TD scorers
J.K. Dobbins 41.7%
RJ Harvey 32.5%
Jaylen Waddle 25.5%
Passing
Bo Nix 183 pass yds (100–302)
Rushing leaders
J.K. Dobbins 44 rush yds (17–83)
RJ Harvey 15 rush yds (1–44)
Receiving leaders
Jaylen Waddle 3.8 rec · 30 yds
RJ Harvey 2.9 rec · 22 yds
Courtland Sutton 2.9 rec · 18 yds
ARI
Likely TD scorers
Trey McBride 36.9%
Trey Benson 29.3%
Michael Wilson 28.2%
Passing
Jacoby Brissett 208 pass yds (120–331)
Rushing leaders
Tyler Allgeier 11 rush yds (1–36)
Bam Knight 10 rush yds (0–40)
Receiving leaders
Trey McBride 7 rec · 44 yds
Michael Wilson 5 rec · 36 yds
Kendrick Bourne 3 rec · 25 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (3)
- Jarrett Stidham DEN — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Jeremiyah Love ARI — Not playing: Listed Out.
- James Conner ARI — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 22 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | ARI | 7 (3–13) | 44 (13–89) | 36.9% | |
| Michael Wilson | ARI | 5 (2–10) | 36 (7–82) | 28.2% | |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | 3.8 (1–8.6) | 30 (5–75) | 25.5% | |
| Kendrick Bourne | ARI | 3 (1–7) | 25 (1–67) | 15.8% | |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | 2.9 (1–6.7) | 22 (1–58) | 32.5% | |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | 2.9 (0–5.7) | 18 (0–56) | 19.4% | |
| Trey Benson | ARI | 2 (0–5) | 9 (0–40) | 29.3% | |
| Evan Engram | DEN | 1.9 (0–4.8) | 13 (0–48) | 13.5% | |
| Pat Bryant | DEN | 1.9 (0–3.8) | 12 (0–49) | 13.1% | |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | 1.9 (0–4.8) | 11 (0–43) | 12.6% | |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI | 1 (0–4) | — | 23.7% | |
| Elijah Higgins | ARI | 1 (0–3) | — | 9.2% | |
| Jalen Brooks | ARI | 1 (0–3) | — | 7.6% | |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 1 (0–2.9) | — | 41.7% | |
| Jonah Coleman | DEN | 1 (0–2.9) | — | 23.9% | |
| Troy Franklin | DEN | 1 (0–2.9) | 5 (0–33) | 7.5% | |
| Reggie Virgil | ARI | — | 8 (0–39) | — | |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | DEN | — | 5 (0–33) | — |
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (3)
- Jarrett Stidham DEN — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Jeremiyah Love ARI — Not playing: Listed Out.
- James Conner ARI — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 20 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 41.7% J.K. Dobbins · DEN
- 36.9% Trey McBride · ARI
- 32.5% RJ Harvey · DEN
- 29.3% Trey Benson · ARI
- 28.2% Michael Wilson · ARI
- 25.5% Jaylen Waddle · DEN
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · separate from this Official Forecast
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- a434c9f1baa14cd2
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (947 graded player-games).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1248 graded player-games).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
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