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NFL · DEN @ ARI · Simulation

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

70.7%DEN win in the simulated games

28.9%ARI win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.0%game goes to overtime

DEN 27 – 20 ARImedian score · averages 26.95 – 19.55

46median total · 80% of games 30–63

DEN by 7median margin · 80% range: DEN by 25 to ARI by 10

40.8%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

7.5% · 5.6%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: ARI points minus DEN points (below 0 means DEN won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-7). Range shown -60 to 48.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (46). Range shown 0 to 104.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
DEN	14	27	40	26.95
ARI	8	20	31	19.55

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	DEN median (80%)	ARI median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	DEN wins it	ARI wins it	Level
Q1	7 (0–14)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–18)	50.4%	32.5%	17.1%
Q2	7 (0–14)	6 (0–13)	13 (6–23)	55.0%	31.9%	13.1%
Q3	7 (0–14)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–17)	50.2%	31.3%	18.4%
Q4	7 (0–14)	6 (0–13)	13 (3–21)	52.4%	31.5%	16.1%
1st half	14 (6–24)	10 (3–19)	24 (13–36)	61.5%	32.5%	6.1%
2nd half	13 (3–21)	9 (0–17)	22 (10–34)	60.6%	31.4%	8.0%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	DEN	ARI
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	64 (51–76)	61 (49–74)
Pass attempts	33 (24–42)	34 (25–44)
Completions	22 (15–29)	23 (16–31)
Passing yards	224 (138–321)	204 (120–299)
Passing TDs	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	0 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	27 (19–37)	24 (16–32)
Rushing yards	128 (65–214)	108 (51–185)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
DEN	2.7%	12.8%	24.7%	26.7%	20.3%	12.8%
ARI	9.5%	26.4%	31.1%	20.5%	9.1%	3.3%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

DEN passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Bo Nix QB	33 (24–42)	22 (15–29)	224 (138–321)	1.9	0.6

DEN rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
J.K. Dobbins RB	12 (7–17)	51 (18–104)	0.5
Bo Nix QB	6 (3–10)	24 (5–62)	0.2
RJ Harvey RB	4 (2–8)	17 (2–51)	0.2
Jonah Coleman RB	3 (1–6)	13 (0–43)	0.1

DEN receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Jaylen Waddle WR	6 (3–10)	4 (1–7)	34 (6–82)	0.3
RJ Harvey RB	4 (2–7)	3 (1–6)	24 (2–65)	0.2
Courtland Sutton WR	4 (2–7)	2 (1–5)	21 (0–62)	0.3
Evan Engram TE	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	15 (0–52)	0.2
Pat Bryant WR	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–49)	0.1
Marvin Mims Jr. WR	2 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–48)	0.1

ARI passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Jacoby Brissett QB	31 (22–40)	21 (14–28)	181 (103–271)	1.2	0.9

ARI rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Tyler Allgeier RB	8 (4–12)	27 (6–68)	0.3
Bam Knight RB	6 (3–10)	25 (5–65)	0.2
Trey Benson RB	5 (3–9)	22 (4–62)	0.2
Jacoby Brissett QB	4 (2–7)	17 (2–50)	0.1

ARI receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Trey McBride TE	8 (4–12)	6 (3–9)	42 (12–94)	0.3
Michael Wilson WR	7 (4–11)	4 (2–7)	34 (6–82)	0.3
Kendrick Bourne WR	4 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	24 (2–65)	0.2
Trey Benson RB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–38)	0.1
Reggie Virgil WR	2 (1–4)	1 (0–3)	7 (0–38)	0.1
Elijah Higgins TE	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–35)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
J.K. Dobbins RB	DEN	45.7%	11.0%	11.9%
RJ Harvey RB	DEN	35.7%	6.5%	8.8%
Jaylen Waddle WR	DEN	30.3%	4.5%	7.5%
Tyler Allgeier RB	ARI	28.5%	3.9%	6.4%
Trey McBride TE	ARI	26.9%	3.4%	6.3%
Michael Wilson WR	ARI	24.8%	2.9%	5.6%
Trey Benson RB	ARI	23.8%	2.9%	5.4%
Courtland Sutton WR	DEN	22.4%	2.3%	5.1%
Bam Knight RB	ARI	21.3%	2.1%	4.4%
Jonah Coleman RB	DEN	19.6%	2.1%	4.2%
Bo Nix QB	DEN	17.5%	1.4%	3.6%
Kendrick Bourne WR	ARI	16.2%	1.1%	3.5%
Evan Engram TE	DEN	15.6%	1.1%	3.4%
Marvin Mims Jr. WR	DEN	15.1%	1.0%	3.5%
Pat Bryant WR	DEN	13.6%	0.9%	3.1%
Troy Franklin WR	DEN	10.5%	0.5%	2.2%

First touchdown by team: DEN 59.7% · ARI 40.0% · no offensive touchdown 0.3%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: DEN 27 – 19 ARI

By quarter: DEN 7 / 7 / 7 / 6 · ARI 3 / 3 / 0 / 13

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (DEN–ARI)
1	DEN	89	punt	7	33	0–0
1	ARI	90	punt	5	0	0–0
1	DEN	50	td	8	50	7–0
1	ARI	76	fg	8	41	7–3
1	DEN	65	punt	3	5	7–3
1	ARI	79	turnover	7	24	7–3
2	DEN	67	td	11	67	14–3
2	ARI	65	fg	10	41	14–6
2	ARI	65	turnover	7	35	14–6
3	DEN	70	td	10	70	21–6
3	ARI	64	downs	11	7	21–6
3	DEN	43	td	10	43	27–6
4	ARI	75	punt	3	-5	27–6
4	DEN	86	punt	3	19	27–6
4	ARI	83	punt	3	8	27–6
4	DEN	56	turnover	1	0	27–6
4	ARI	38	td	6	38	27–12
4	DEN	64	punt	3	11	27–12
4	ARI	89	td	9	89	27–19
4	DEN	69	turnover	2	31	27–19
4	ARI	43	end half	2	-2	27–19

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: DEN 35 – 28 ARI

By quarter: DEN 6 / 15 / 3 / 11 · ARI 7 / 14 / 0 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (DEN–ARI)
1	ARI	73	punt	7	27	0–0
1	DEN	99	punt	3	34	0–0
1	ARI	73	td	1	73	0–7
1	DEN	68	punt	3	5	0–7
1	ARI	83	turnover	3	42	0–7
1	DEN	53	punt	3	4	0–7
1	ARI	88	turnover	1	7	0–7
1	DEN	2	td	7	2	6–7
1	ARI	64	td	8	64	6–14
2	DEN	65	td	6	65	14–14
2	ARI	70	td	4	70	14–21
2	DEN	65	turnover	4	41	14–21
2	ARI	76	punt	5	-6	14–21
2	DEN	68	td	11	68	21–21
2	DEN	80	punt	4	8	21–21
3	ARI	73	punt	3	3	21–21
3	DEN	87	fg	7	79	24–21
3	ARI	65	downs	5	30	24–21
3	DEN	65	td	7	65	32–21
4	ARI	65	turnover	5	12	32–21
4	DEN	52	fg	5	33	35–21
4	ARI	59	punt	3	8	35–21
4	DEN	99	turnover	6	8	35–21
4	ARI	1	td	9	1	35–28

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: DEN 19 – 11 ARI

By quarter: DEN 10 / 3 / 3 / 3 · ARI 0 / 3 / 0 / 8

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (DEN–ARI)
1	ARI	81	punt	3	23	0–0
1	DEN	87	fg	8	48	3–0
1	ARI	60	punt	5	4	3–0
1	DEN	91	td	10	91	10–0
1	ARI	80	turnover	2	21	10–0
2	DEN	59	punt	3	0	10–0
2	ARI	75	punt	5	0	10–0
2	DEN	96	downs	4	27	10–0
2	ARI	30	fg	3	3	10–3
2	DEN	65	punt	10	9	10–3
2	ARI	90	turnover	4	21	10–3
2	DEN	46	fg	8	15	13–3
2	DEN	60	fg	11	50	16–3
3	ARI	73	punt	5	18	16–3
3	DEN	82	fg	10	81	19–3
4	ARI	74	punt	4	4	19–3
4	DEN	52	punt	3	10	19–3
4	ARI	99	punt	11	6	19–3
4	DEN	59	downs	11	54	19–3
4	ARI	95	td	6	95	19–11

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 24, 6:57 PM ET · before kickoff Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET
Seed	bf5576c5 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 46 / margin.median -7 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means ARI 19.59 / DEN 26.57
Availability	injuries as of Oct 24, 6:55 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 24, 6:55 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873019:150ac88882f7acf4

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.