TB @ CAR
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, Sun, Oct 25. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was TB 43 – 13 CAR, from the Week 7 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: TB 43 – 13 CAR
The played game's official lines, recorded Oct 25, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 7 | 26 | 3 | 7 | 43 |
| CAR | 0 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 43
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 0 | 106Forecast 56 (21–105) · outside range | 1Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 4Forecast 15 (0–46) · in range | YesForecast 41.0% |
| Kenny Gainwell | 0 | 88Forecast 5 (0–28) · outside range | 0Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 0Forecast 12 (0–43) · in range | NoForecast 18.6% |
| Baker Mayfield | 64Forecast 201 (110–332) · outside range | 1Forecast 10 (0–41) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 13.0% |
| Sean Tucker | 0 | 52Forecast 6 (0–29) · outside range | 0 | 0 | YesForecast 11.7% |
| Tez Johnson | 0 | 14 | 2Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 33Forecast 9 (0–44) · in range | YesForecast 8.8% |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 27Forecast 31 (5–76) · in range | NoForecast 16.9% |
| Cade Otton | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 3 (1–7) · outside range | 0Forecast 27 (3–69) · outside range | NoForecast 14.9% |
| Calijah Kancey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Ted Hurst III | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 0Forecast 23 (0–67) · in range | NoForecast 12.8% |
| Jalen McMillanNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | —Forecast 7 (0–38) | — |
| Jalon Daniels | 0 | -3Forecast 12 (0–45) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 11.8% |
| Player lines added up | 64 | 258 | 7 | 64 |
24 other Tampa Bay Buccaneers players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Carolina Panthers · 13
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 163Forecast 244 (137–395) · in range | 9Forecast 3 (0–22) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 8.8% |
| Kenny Pickett | 47 | 15 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Chuba Hubbard | 0 | 33Forecast 65 (27–119) · in range | 4Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 27Forecast 7 (0–36) · in range | NoForecast 57.2% |
| Darren Waller | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 50Forecast 15 (0–51) · in range | YesForecast 21.2% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 5 (2–11) · in range | 40Forecast 55 (13–118) · in range | NoForecast 37.8% |
| Mitchell Evans | 0 | 0 | 2 | 39 | No |
| Trevor Etienne | 0 | 8 | 2 | 17 | No |
| Anthony Tyus III | 0 | 23 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| John Metchie III | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 20Forecast 10 (0–42) · in range | NoForecast 15.1% |
| Jalen Coker | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 5 (2–10) · outside range | 9Forecast 47 (11–104) · outside range | NoForecast 36.8% |
| Tommy Tremble | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 8Forecast 15 (0–47) · in range | NoForecast 19.9% |
| Xavier LegetteNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 2 (0–4) | —Forecast 12 (0–50) | —Forecast 16.0% |
| Player lines added up | 210 | 88 | 17 | 210 |
24 other Carolina Panthers players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 7 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers34.2% to winPregame projection
22–25
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Carolina Panthers63.0% to winCarolina Panthers were the projected winner, 63.0% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
CAR +3
8 in 10 outcomes between -13 and +20
Expected total
47
8 in 10 outcomes between 29 and 63
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameTB 22 — 25 CARwin chance TB 34.2% · CAR 63.0%total 47 (29–63)margin +3
TB
Likely TD scorers
Bucky Irving 41.0%
Kenny Gainwell 18.6%
Chris Godwin Jr. 16.9%
Passing
Baker Mayfield 201 pass yds (110–332)
Rushing leaders
Bucky Irving 56 rush yds (21–105)
Jalon Daniels 12 rush yds (0–45)
Receiving leaders
Chris Godwin Jr. 3 rec · 31 yds
Cade Otton 3 rec · 27 yds
Bucky Irving 2 rec · 15 yds
CAR
Likely TD scorers
Chuba Hubbard 57.2%
Tetairoa McMillan 37.8%
Jalen Coker 36.8%
Passing
Bryce Young 244 pass yds (137–395)
Rushing leaders
Chuba Hubbard 65 rush yds (27–119)
Bryce Young 3 rush yds (0–22)
Receiving leaders
Tetairoa McMillan 5 rec · 55 yds
Jalen Coker 5 rec · 47 yds
Darren Waller 2 rec · 15 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (5)
- Jalon Daniels TB — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Emeka Egbuka TB — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Jonathon Brooks CAR — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- AJ Dillon CAR — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Ja'Tavion Sanders CAR — Not playing: Listed Out.
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 18 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | 5 (2–11) | 55 (13–118) | 37.8% | |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | 5 (2–10) | 47 (11–104) | 36.8% | |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | 3 (1–7) | 31 (5–76) | 16.9% | |
| Cade Otton | TB | 3 (1–7) | 27 (3–69) | 14.9% | |
| Bucky Irving | TB | 2 (0–5) | 15 (0–46) | 41.0% | |
| Darren Waller | CAR | 2 (0–5) | 15 (0–51) | 21.2% | |
| Tommy Tremble | CAR | 2 (0–5) | 15 (0–47) | 19.9% | |
| Kenny Gainwell | TB | 2 (0–4) | 12 (0–43) | 18.6% | |
| Xavier Legette | CAR | 2 (0–4) | 12 (0–50) | 16.0% | |
| John Metchie III | CAR | 2 (0–4) | 10 (0–42) | 15.1% | |
| Ted Hurst III | TB | 2 (0–4) | 23 (0–67) | 12.8% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 1 (0–4) | 7 (0–36) | 57.2% | |
| Tez Johnson | TB | 1 (0–3) | 9 (0–44) | 8.8% | |
| Jalen McMillan | TB | — | 7 (0–38) | — |
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (5)
- Jalon Daniels TB — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Emeka Egbuka TB — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Jonathon Brooks CAR — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- AJ Dillon CAR — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Ja'Tavion Sanders CAR — Not playing: Listed Out.
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 17 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 57.2% Chuba Hubbard · CAR
- 41.0% Bucky Irving · TB
- 37.8% Tetairoa McMillan · CAR
- 36.8% Jalen Coker · CAR
- 21.2% Darren Waller · CAR
- 19.9% Tommy Tremble · CAR
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · separate from this Official Forecast
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 55950321d5b15cfe
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (947 graded player-games).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1248 graded player-games).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
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