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NFL · TB @ CAR · Simulation

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

43.0%TB win in the simulated games

56.6%CAR win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.5%game goes to overtime

TB 22 – 24 CARmedian score · averages 22.19 – 24.57

46median total · 80% of games 30–64

CAR by 3median margin · 80% range: TB by 15 to CAR by 20

46.2%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

9.4% · 6.8%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: CAR points minus TB points (below 0 means TB won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (3). Range shown -54 to 57.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (46). Range shown 0 to 100.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
TB	10	22	34	22.19
CAR	13	24	37	24.57

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	TB median (80%)	CAR median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	TB wins it	CAR wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–17)	38.6%	43.5%	17.9%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (6–23)	39.4%	47.9%	12.7%
Q3	3 (0–10)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–18)	37.4%	43.5%	19.1%
Q4	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (3–21)	39.4%	44.3%	16.4%
1st half	10 (3–20)	13 (3–21)	23 (13–36)	41.7%	51.6%	6.7%
2nd half	10 (3–20)	11 (3–21)	22 (10–35)	42.1%	50.0%	8.0%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	TB	CAR
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (50–75)	63 (50–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (25–43)
Completions	23 (16–30)	22 (16–30)
Passing yards	207 (125–302)	220 (135–317)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	25 (17–34)	26 (18–35)
Rushing yards	119 (60–200)	121 (60–203)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
TB	6.0%	20.5%	30.2%	24.8%	13.3%	5.2%
CAR	4.0%	16.2%	27.9%	26.7%	16.6%	8.6%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

TB passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Baker Mayfield QB	34 (25–44)	23 (16–30)	207 (125–302)	1.5	0.8

TB rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Bucky Irving RB	12 (7–18)	53 (19–109)	0.4
Baker Mayfield QB	7 (4–11)	35 (9–79)	0.2
Sean Tucker RB	2 (1–5)	7 (0–29)	0.1
Kenny Gainwell RB	2 (0–4)	5 (0–27)	0.1

TB receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Chris Godwin Jr. WR	6 (3–10)	5 (2–8)	37 (8–86)	0.3
Cade Otton TE	6 (3–10)	4 (2–7)	34 (6–80)	0.3
Ted Hurst III WR	5 (2–9)	3 (1–6)	26 (2–71)	0.2
Bucky Irving RB	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	18 (1–55)	0.2
Kenny Gainwell RB	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	16 (0–51)	0.2
Tez Johnson WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–47)	0.1

CAR passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Bryce Young QB	30 (22–39)	20 (14–27)	197 (118–290)	1.5	0.6

CAR rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Chuba Hubbard RB	16 (10–23)	76 (32–141)	0.7
Bryce Young QB	4 (2–8)	17 (2–50)	0.1
AJ Dillon RB	4 (2–7)	13 (1–42)	0.2
Trevor Etienne RB	0 (0–2)	0 (0–8)	0.0

CAR receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Tetairoa McMillan WR	7 (4–11)	5 (2–8)	47 (12–100)	0.4
Jalen Coker WR	7 (3–10)	4 (2–8)	41 (9–92)	0.3
Darren Waller TE	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–47)	0.1
Tommy Tremble TE	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–47)	0.1
Xavier Legette WR	3 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	10 (0–45)	0.1
John Metchie III WR	2 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	9 (0–40)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Chuba Hubbard RB	CAR	54.9%	16.6%	15.2%
Bucky Irving RB	TB	47.1%	12.3%	11.9%
Tetairoa McMillan WR	CAR	31.3%	5.0%	7.5%
Jalen Coker WR	CAR	28.9%	4.1%	6.3%
Chris Godwin Jr. WR	TB	26.1%	3.3%	5.8%
Cade Otton TE	TB	24.5%	2.7%	5.7%
Kenny Gainwell RB	TB	22.4%	2.6%	5.0%
Ted Hurst III WR	TB	21.4%	2.1%	4.7%
Baker Mayfield QB	TB	19.7%	1.8%	4.3%
AJ Dillon RB	CAR	17.7%	1.4%	3.8%
Darren Waller TE	CAR	13.5%	0.9%	2.7%
Tommy Tremble TE	CAR	13.1%	0.8%	2.7%
Xavier Legette WR	CAR	13.1%	0.8%	2.8%
Tez Johnson WR	TB	12.7%	0.6%	2.7%
Bryce Young QB	CAR	11.9%	0.6%	2.6%
John Metchie III WR	CAR	11.4%	0.6%	2.5%

First touchdown by team: TB 47.0% · CAR 52.8% · no offensive touchdown 0.3%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: TB 21 – 24 CAR

By quarter: TB 7 / 7 / 0 / 7 · CAR 7 / 10 / 0 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (TB–CAR)
1	CAR	70	td	8	70	0–7
1	TB	71	punt	3	43	0–7
1	CAR	99	punt	5	4	0–7
1	TB	41	td	12	41	7–7
1	CAR	65	punt	3	-10	7–7
1	TB	80	turnover	9	28	7–7
2	CAR	34	td	8	34	7–14
2	TB	72	td	6	72	14–14
2	CAR	78	fg	10	55	14–17
2	TB	67	fg miss	10	40	14–17
3	CAR	65	punt	3	0	14–17
3	TB	81	punt	3	5	14–17
3	CAR	59	td	12	59	14–24
4	TB	47	td	6	47	21–24
4	CAR	80	punt	3	8	21–24
4	TB	63	punt	3	-2	21–24
4	CAR	84	end half	12	-1	21–24

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: TB 31 – 34 CAR

By quarter: TB 7 / 3 / 14 / 7 · CAR 10 / 7 / 7 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (TB–CAR)
1	CAR	63	td	8	63	0–7
1	TB	74	punt	7	38	0–7
1	CAR	99	fg	3	78	0–10
1	TB	70	td	5	70	7–10
1	CAR	72	td	7	72	7–17
2	TB	85	punt	3	-4	7–17
2	CAR	44	turnover	1	18	7–17
2	TB	11	fg	10	6	10–17
2	CAR	71	end half	9	-1	10–17
2	TB	74	td	10	74	17–17
3	CAR	67	td	4	67	17–24
3	TB	48	td	10	48	24–24
3	CAR	68	fg miss	5	28	24–24
3	TB	52	td	7	52	31–24
4	CAR	70	fg	8	44	31–27
4	TB	86	turnover	3	15	31–27
4	CAR	29	td	8	29	31–34
4	TB	68	punt	3	-9	31–34
4	CAR	55	end half	3	8	31–34

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: TB 13 – 16 CAR

By quarter: TB 3 / 0 / 0 / 10 · CAR 7 / 0 / 3 / 6

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (TB–CAR)
1	TB	70	fg	11	7	3–0
1	CAR	66	downs	4	54	3–0
1	TB	89	punt	3	4	3–0
1	CAR	52	punt	4	11	3–0
1	TB	97	punt	6	44	3–0
1	CAR	79	td	3	79	3–7
1	TB	78	punt	5	3	3–7
2	CAR	81	punt	4	0	3–7
2	TB	58	punt	7	1	3–7
2	CAR	82	turnover	2	31	3–7
2	TB	80	punt	3	12	3–7
2	CAR	79	punt	8	37	3–7
2	TB	83	end half	2	-9	3–7
2	CAR	67	fg miss	6	43	3–7
3	TB	68	punt	3	5	3–7
3	CAR	69	fg	8	22	3–10
3	TB	65	td	10	65	10–10
4	CAR	71	fg miss	7	35	10–10
4	TB	56	punt	6	7	10–10
4	CAR	90	downs	7	1	10–10
4	TB	12	fg	9	3	13–10
4	CAR	65	td	6	65	13–16

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 25, 8:46 AM ET · before kickoff Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
Seed	79f03b14 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 47 / margin.median 3 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means CAR 24.99 / TB 22.09
Availability	injuries as of Oct 25, 8:36 AM ET · rosters as of Oct 25, 8:36 AM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873018:34e09f246bf83581

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.