SF @ ATL
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons, Sun, Oct 25. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · final
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was SF 20 – 29 ATL, from the Week 7 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: SF 20 – 29 ATL
The played game's official lines, recorded Oct 25, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 20 |
| ATL | 3 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 29 |
San Francisco 49ers · 20
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 288Forecast 237 (129–394) · in range | 5Forecast 15 (0–47) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 17.8% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 0 | 39Forecast 46 (16–91) · in range | 6Forecast 4 (1–8.9) · in range | 61Forecast 26 (4–65) · in range | YesForecast 70.5% |
| George Kittle | 0 | 0 | 8Forecast 4 (1–8.9) · in range | 88Forecast 35 (5–85) · outside range | NoForecast 47.1% |
| Kaelon Black | 0 | 63Forecast 19 (3–51) · outside range | 1 | -4 | YesForecast 20.5% |
| Jordan Watkins | 0 | 0 | 3 | 56 | No |
| Jacob Cowing | 0 | 10 | 3 | 38 | No |
| Jordan James | 0 | 6 | 1 | 11 | No |
| Luke Farrell | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | No |
| Brandin Cooks | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 13 | NoForecast 12.1% |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 11 | YesForecast 12.9% |
| Brandon AiyukNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 4 (1–8.9) | —Forecast 9 (0–40) | —Forecast 33.8% |
| Jake TongesNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 12 (0–44) | —Forecast 10.9% |
| Mac JonesNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 2 (0–19) | — | — | —Forecast 8.3% |
| Ricky PearsallNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 3 (1–6.9) | —Forecast 16 (0–54) | —Forecast 25.2% |
| Player lines added up | 288 | 123 | 27 | 288 |
18 other San Francisco 49ers players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Atlanta Falcons · 29
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 213Forecast 220 (116–372) · in range | -1Forecast 1 (0–18) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 7.0% |
| Bijan Robinson | 0 | 63Forecast 80 (33–144) · in range | 5Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 59Forecast 27 (4–65) · in range | NoForecast 61.4% |
| Drake London | 0 | 0 | 7Forecast 5 (2–11) · in range | 66Forecast 76 (23–151) · in range | YesForecast 28.3% |
| Khalil Herbert | 0 | 9 | 1 | 19 | No |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 22Forecast 29 (4–75) · in range | YesForecast 26.0% |
| Austin Hooper | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21Forecast 8 (0–36) · in range | No |
| Zachariah Branch | 0 | 8 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 9Forecast 8 (0–37) · in range | NoForecast 8.3% |
| Charlie Woerner | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | No |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 6Forecast 27 (0–77) · in range | NoForecast 20.6% |
| Nick Muse | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | Yes |
| Player lines added up | 213 | 82 | 25 | 213 |
25 other Atlanta Falcons players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 7 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
San Francisco 49ers70.6% to winPregame projection
26–21
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Atlanta Falcons26.6% to winSan Francisco 49ers were the projected winner, 70.6% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
ATL -5
8 in 10 outcomes between -22 and +12
Expected total
47
8 in 10 outcomes between 30 and 64
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameSF 26 — 21 ATLwin chance SF 70.6% · ATL 26.6%total 47 (30–64)margin -5
SF
Likely TD scorers
Christian McCaffrey 70.5%
George Kittle 47.1%
Brandon Aiyuk 33.8%
Passing
Brock Purdy 237 pass yds (129–394)
Rushing leaders
Christian McCaffrey 46 rush yds (16–91)
Kaelon Black 19 rush yds (3–51)
Receiving leaders
Christian McCaffrey 4 rec · 26 yds
George Kittle 4 rec · 35 yds
Brandon Aiyuk 4 rec · 9 yds
ATL
Likely TD scorers
Bijan Robinson 61.4%
Drake London 28.3%
Kyle Pitts Sr. 26.0%
Passing
Michael Penix Jr. 220 pass yds (116–372)
Rushing leaders
Bijan Robinson 80 rush yds (33–144)
Michael Penix Jr. 1 rush yds (0–18)
Receiving leaders
Drake London 5 rec · 76 yds
Bijan Robinson 3 rec · 27 yds
Kyle Pitts Sr. 3 rec · 29 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (8)
- Mike Evans SF — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Deebo Samuel Sr. SF — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Demarcus Robinson SF — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Christian Kirk SF — Role not yet observed: no game for SF yet this season — role at SF not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 14 games for HOU, 2.9 rec · 29.7 rec yds per game.
- Brian Robinson Jr. ATL — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Olamide Zaccheaus ATL — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Jack Strand ATL — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Cooper Rush ATL — Left the roster: not on ATL's current roster.
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 17 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | ATL | 5 (2–11) | 76 (23–151) | 28.3% | |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 4 (1–8.9) | 26 (4–65) | 70.5% | |
| George Kittle | SF | 4 (1–8.9) | 35 (5–85) | 47.1% | |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | 4 (1–8.9) | 9 (0–40) | 33.8% | |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 3 (1–7) | 27 (4–65) | 61.4% | |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL | 3 (1–7) | 29 (4–75) | 26.0% | |
| Ricky Pearsall | SF | 3 (1–6.9) | 16 (0–54) | 25.2% | |
| Jahan Dotson | ATL | 2 (0–5) | 27 (0–77) | 20.6% | |
| Zachariah Branch | ATL | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–37) | 8.3% | |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF | 1 (0–3) | — | 12.9% | |
| Brandin Cooks | SF | 1 (0–3) | — | 12.1% | |
| Jake Tonges | SF | 1 (0–3) | 12 (0–44) | 10.9% | |
| Austin Hooper | ATL | — | 8 (0–36) | — |
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (8)
- Mike Evans SF — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Deebo Samuel Sr. SF — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Demarcus Robinson SF — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Christian Kirk SF — Role not yet observed: no game for SF yet this season — role at SF not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 14 games for HOU, 2.9 rec · 29.7 rec yds per game.
- Brian Robinson Jr. ATL — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Olamide Zaccheaus ATL — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Jack Strand ATL — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Cooper Rush ATL — Left the roster: not on ATL's current roster.
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 16 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 70.5% Christian McCaffrey · SF
- 61.4% Bijan Robinson · ATL
- 47.1% George Kittle · SF
- 33.8% Brandon Aiyuk · SF
- 28.3% Drake London · ATL
- 26.0% Kyle Pitts Sr. · ATL
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · separate from this Official Forecast
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 2d781cea37975f18
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (947 graded player-games).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1248 graded player-games).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
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