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NFL · SF @ ATL · Simulation

San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

64.6%SF win in the simulated games

35.0%ATL win in the simulated games

0.4%tie after overtime

3.2%game goes to overtime

SF 26 – 20 ATLmedian score · averages 25.93 – 20.95

46median total · 80% of games 30–64

SF by 5median margin · 80% range: SF by 23 to ATL by 13

44.1%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.6% · 6.4%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: ATL points minus SF points (below 0 means SF won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-5). Range shown -60 to 48.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (46). Range shown 4 to 104.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
SF	13	26	38	25.93
ATL	9	20	34	20.95

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	SF median (80%)	ATL median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	SF wins it	ATL wins it	Level
Q1	7 (0–13)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–18)	47.7%	34.6%	17.7%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	14 (6–23)	51.6%	35.6%	12.8%
Q3	6 (0–13)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–18)	47.1%	34.4%	18.5%
Q4	7 (0–14)	6 (0–13)	13 (3–21)	48.2%	35.7%	16.1%
1st half	13 (6–23)	10 (3–20)	24 (13–36)	57.0%	36.2%	6.8%
2nd half	13 (3–21)	10 (0–19)	22 (10–35)	55.3%	36.8%	7.9%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	SF	ATL
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	63 (51–76)	62 (49–75)
Pass attempts	33 (24–43)	34 (25–44)
Completions	23 (16–31)	22 (16–30)
Passing yards	223 (137–320)	203 (121–299)
Passing TDs	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	0 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	27 (18–36)	24 (17–33)
Rushing yards	125 (63–208)	118 (57–198)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
SF	3.4%	13.3%	25.7%	28.2%	18.5%	11.0%
ATL	8.1%	22.5%	31.3%	22.8%	10.5%	4.7%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

SF passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Brock Purdy QB	33 (24–43)	23 (16–31)	223 (137–320)	1.8	0.6

SF rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Christian McCaffrey RB	12 (7–17)	51 (18–104)	0.5
Brock Purdy QB	7 (4–12)	34 (9–77)	0.3
Kaelon Black RB	6 (3–10)	22 (4–58)	0.2
Jordan James RB	1 (0–3)	1 (0–16)	0.0

SF receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
George Kittle TE	7 (4–11)	5 (2–8)	46 (12–100)	0.4
Christian McCaffrey RB	6 (3–10)	5 (2–8)	38 (9–86)	0.4
Ricky Pearsall WR	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	22 (0–62)	0.2
Jake Tonges TE	3 (1–6)	2 (1–5)	17 (0–54)	0.2
Brandon Aiyuk WR	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–48)	0.2
Kyle Juszczyk FB	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	9 (0–41)	0.1

ATL passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Michael Penix Jr. QB	34 (25–44)	22 (16–30)	203 (121–299)	1.4	0.9

ATL rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Bijan Robinson RB	18 (12–26)	88 (39–160)	0.6
Michael Penix Jr. QB	5 (2–8)	16 (2–48)	0.1
Drake London WR	0 (0–1)	0 (0–1)	0.0

ATL receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Drake London WR	10 (6–14)	6 (3–10)	60 (20–118)	0.4
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	25 (3–69)	0.2
Bijan Robinson RB	5 (2–9)	4 (1–6)	24 (3–65)	0.2
Jahan Dotson WR	4 (2–8)	3 (1–5)	22 (0–65)	0.2
Zachariah Branch WR	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	7 (0–35)	0.1
Austin Hooper TE	2 (0–4)	1 (0–3)	6 (0–35)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Bijan Robinson RB	ATL	59.7%	20.6%	15.8%
Christian McCaffrey RB	SF	57.8%	20.1%	16.6%
Drake London WR	ATL	34.2%	6.5%	8.6%
George Kittle TE	SF	32.8%	5.8%	7.1%
Kaelon Black RB	SF	23.3%	2.6%	5.6%
Brock Purdy QB	SF	22.2%	2.5%	5.3%
Ricky Pearsall WR	SF	20.1%	2.0%	4.5%
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE	ATL	19.3%	1.8%	4.2%
Jahan Dotson WR	ATL	17.0%	1.3%	3.8%
Jake Tonges TE	SF	16.3%	1.4%	4.0%
Brandon Aiyuk WR	SF	14.5%	1.2%	3.1%
Kyle Juszczyk FB	SF	11.2%	0.7%	2.5%
Michael Penix Jr. QB	ATL	10.6%	0.5%	2.0%
Brandin Cooks WR	SF	9.1%	0.3%	1.8%
Olamide Zaccheaus WR	ATL	8.6%	0.3%	1.8%
Zachariah Branch WR	ATL	8.3%	0.3%	1.7%

First touchdown by team: SF 57.1% · ATL 42.6% · no offensive touchdown 0.3%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: SF 26 – 21 ATL

By quarter: SF 10 / 3 / 10 / 3 · ATL 0 / 0 / 7 / 14

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (SF–ATL)
1	ATL	65	punt	3	2	0–0
1	SF	78	fg	9	74	3–0
1	ATL	65	punt	5	22	3–0
1	SF	97	td	14	97	10–0
1	ATL	65	turnover	1	46	10–0
1	SF	78	turnover	12	68	10–0
2	ATL	73	punt	4	1	10–0
2	SF	71	punt	9	9	10–0
2	ATL	76	turnover	2	29	10–0
2	SF	61	fg	7	60	13–0
2	SF	68	fg	3	53	16–0
3	ATL	57	turnover	5	16	16–0
3	SF	43	td	9	43	23–0
3	ATL	80	td	5	80	23–7
3	SF	87	punt	4	7	23–7
3	ATL	46	td	5	46	23–14
4	SF	86	punt	3	24	23–14
4	ATL	79	downs	7	51	23–14
4	SF	72	fg	3	55	26–14
4	ATL	66	td	11	66	26–21
4	SF	73	end half	2	0	26–21

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: SF 35 – 30 ATL

By quarter: SF 0 / 6 / 15 / 14 · ATL 7 / 3 / 10 / 10

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (SF–ATL)
1	SF	68	punt	3	23	0–0
1	ATL	99	punt	3	33	0–0
1	SF	83	turnover	11	15	0–0
1	ATL	72	punt	6	6	0–0
1	SF	74	punt	6	-2	0–0
1	ATL	37	td	5	37	0–7
1	SF	71	punt	6	3	0–7
2	ATL	71	punt	3	1	0–7
2	SF	51	fg	6	43	3–7
2	ATL	81	punt	3	39	3–7
2	SF	99	fg	5	64	6–7
2	ATL	16	fg	10	7	6–10
2	ATL	74	fg	8	48	6–13
3	SF	65	td	9	65	13–13
3	ATL	75	td	3	75	13–20
3	SF	76	td	4	76	21–20
3	ATL	87	punt	8	8	21–20
4	SF	67	td	2	67	28–20
4	ATL	72	fg	9	47	28–23
4	SF	77	punt	3	9	28–23
4	ATL	70	td	12	70	28–30
4	SF	65	td	3	65	35–30

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: SF 17 – 13 ATL

By quarter: SF 3 / 0 / 0 / 14 · ATL 3 / 3 / 0 / 7

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (SF–ATL)
1	ATL	73	fg	6	72	0–3
1	SF	74	fg	12	59	3–3
1	ATL	80	punt	3	2	3–3
1	SF	74	punt	5	2	3–3
1	ATL	46	fg	12	16	3–6
2	SF	74	fg miss	10	47	3–6
2	ATL	78	end half	1	57	3–6
2	SF	65	punt	6	8	3–6
3	ATL	74	punt	3	19	3–6
3	SF	92	punt	7	23	3–6
3	ATL	56	punt	3	4	3–6
3	SF	59	punt	4	2	3–6
3	ATL	86	punt	3	1	3–6
3	SF	65	fg miss	3	33	3–6
3	ATL	60	td	10	60	3–13
4	SF	72	td	6	72	10–13
4	ATL	67	punt	4	15	10–13
4	SF	88	punt	3	18	10–13
4	ATL	80	downs	10	33	10–13
4	SF	53	td	5	53	17–13

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 23, 7:47 PM ET · before kickoff Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET
Seed	995c1bcb · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 47 / margin.median -5 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means ATL 20.98 / SF 26.05
Availability	injuries as of Oct 23, 7:45 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 23, 7:45 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873017:12750de693c74afe

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.