PIT @ NO
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints, Sun, Oct 25. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET · final
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was PIT 16 – 10 NO, from the Week 7 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: PIT 16 – 10 NO
The played game's official lines, recorded Oct 25, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 3 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| NO | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Pittsburgh Steelers · 16
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 212Forecast 217 (123–350) · in range | 6 | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 3.5% |
| Jaylen Warren | 0 | 101Forecast 72 (29–132) · in range | 3Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 36Forecast 24 (1–65) · in range | NoForecast 40.8% |
| Rico Dowdle | 0 | 41Forecast 24 (5–57) · in range | 6Forecast 2 (0–4) · outside range | 45Forecast 10 (0–39) · outside range | NoForecast 25.7% |
| DK Metcalf | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 56Forecast 40 (9–88) · in range | NoForecast 28.9% |
| Germie Bernard | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 27Forecast 33 (6–77) · in range | NoForecast 25.0% |
| Brandon Smith | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | No |
| Pat Freiermuth | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 20Forecast 21 (0–59) · in range | NoForecast 28.6% |
| Darnell Washington | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 4Forecast 16 (0–52) · in range | YesForecast 19.5% |
| Travis Homer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 3.3% |
| Mason RudolphNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 3.5% |
| Michael Pittman Jr.No line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 2 (0–5) | —Forecast 16 (0–54) | —Forecast 17.0% |
| Player lines added up | 212 | 148 | 19 | 212 |
24 other Pittsburgh Steelers players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
New Orleans Saints · 10
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 278Forecast 212 (121–340) · in range | 7Forecast 4 (0–29) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 13.7% |
| Alvin Kamara | 0 | 5Forecast 16 (2–45) · in range | 7Forecast 1.9 (0–5.8) · outside range | 57Forecast 15 (0–44) · outside range | NoForecast 37.5% |
| Barion Brown | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57 | No |
| Chris Olave | 0 | 0 | 6Forecast 5.8 (1.9–10.7) · in range | 56Forecast 54 (15–113) · in range | NoForecast 36.1% |
| Devaughn Vele | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 3.9 (1–7.8) · in range | 54Forecast 32 (5–75) · in range | YesForecast 27.8% |
| Kendre Miller | 0 | 6Forecast 23 (5–54) · in range | 3 | 22 | NoForecast 34.9% |
| Bryce Lance | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 1.9 (0–3.9) · in range | 12Forecast 9 (0–39) · in range | NoForecast 16.4% |
| Noah Fant | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 1 (0–2.9) · in range | 11Forecast 6 (0–35) · in range | NoForecast 13.1% |
| Juwan Johnson | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 2.9 (1–6.8) · in range | 7Forecast 25 (2–65) · in range | NoForecast 25.1% |
| Oscar Delp | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | No |
| CJ DonaldsonNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 6 (0–32) | — | — | —Forecast 13.8% |
| Mason TiptonNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–2.9) | — | —Forecast 10.0% |
| Spencer RattlerNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 3 (0–26) | — | — | —Forecast 6.2% |
| Travis Etienne Jr.No line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 24 (4–58) | —Forecast 1.9 (0–4.9) | —Forecast 10 (0–37) | —Forecast 33.8% |
| Player lines added up | 278 | 18 | 30 | 278 |
22 other New Orleans Saints players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 7 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 7 · Sunday, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET · Stade de France
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
Pittsburgh Steelers64.8% to winPregame projection
25–20
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
New Orleans Saints32.6% to winPittsburgh Steelers were the projected winner, 64.8% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
NO -6
8 in 10 outcomes between -22 and +11
Expected total
45
8 in 10 outcomes between 28 and 62
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gamePIT 25 — 20 NOwin chance PIT 64.8% · NO 32.6%total 45 (28–62)margin -6
PIT
Likely TD scorers
Jaylen Warren 40.8%
DK Metcalf 28.9%
Pat Freiermuth 28.6%
Passing
Aaron Rodgers 217 pass yds (123–350)
Rushing leaders
Jaylen Warren 72 rush yds (29–132)
Rico Dowdle 24 rush yds (5–57)
Receiving leaders
DK Metcalf 4 rec · 40 yds
Germie Bernard 4 rec · 33 yds
Jaylen Warren 3 rec · 24 yds
NO
Likely TD scorers
Alvin Kamara 37.5%
Chris Olave 36.1%
Kendre Miller 34.9%
Passing
Tyler Shough 212 pass yds (121–340)
Rushing leaders
Travis Etienne Jr. 24 rush yds (4–58)
Kendre Miller 23 rush yds (5–54)
Receiving leaders
Chris Olave 5.8 rec · 54 yds
Devaughn Vele 3.9 rec · 32 yds
Juwan Johnson 2.9 rec · 25 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (4)
- Roman Wilson PIT — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Isaiah Hodgins PIT — Role not yet observed: no game for PIT yet this season — role at PIT not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 6 games for NYG, 1.7 rec · 19.2 rec yds per game.
- Spencer Rattler NO — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Cedric Tillman NO — Role not yet observed: no game for NO yet this season — role at NO not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 13 games for CLE, 1.7 rec · 22.2 rec yds per game.
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 22 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | NO | 5.8 (1.9–10.7) | 54 (15–113) | 36.1% | |
| DK Metcalf | PIT | 4 (1–9) | 40 (9–88) | 28.9% | |
| Germie Bernard | PIT | 4 (1–8) | 33 (6–77) | 25.0% | |
| Devaughn Vele | NO | 3.9 (1–7.8) | 32 (5–75) | 27.8% | |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | 3 (1–6) | 24 (1–65) | 40.8% | |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | 3 (1–6) | 21 (0–59) | 28.6% | |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | 2.9 (1–6.8) | 25 (2–65) | 25.1% | |
| Rico Dowdle | PIT | 2 (0–4) | 10 (0–39) | 25.7% | |
| Darnell Washington | PIT | 2 (0–5) | 16 (0–52) | 19.5% | |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT | 2 (0–5) | 16 (0–54) | 17.0% | |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 1.9 (0–5.8) | 15 (0–44) | 37.5% | |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | NO | 1.9 (0–4.9) | 10 (0–37) | 33.8% | |
| Bryce Lance | NO | 1.9 (0–3.9) | 9 (0–39) | 16.4% | |
| Noah Fant | NO | 1 (0–2.9) | 6 (0–35) | 13.1% | |
| Mason Tipton | NO | 1 (0–2.9) | — | 10.0% |
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (4)
- Roman Wilson PIT — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Isaiah Hodgins PIT — Role not yet observed: no game for PIT yet this season — role at PIT not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 6 games for NYG, 1.7 rec · 19.2 rec yds per game.
- Spencer Rattler NO — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Cedric Tillman NO — Role not yet observed: no game for NO yet this season — role at NO not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 13 games for CLE, 1.7 rec · 22.2 rec yds per game.
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 22 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 40.8% Jaylen Warren · PIT
- 37.5% Alvin Kamara · NO
- 36.1% Chris Olave · NO
- 34.9% Kendre Miller · NO
- 33.8% Travis Etienne Jr. · NO
- 28.9% DK Metcalf · PIT
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · separate from this Official Forecast
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 56baae498e71be96
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Graded against revision rev-1329Z (identical values; input hash 7b06983a4ac1245b); the official record is rev-1236Z because rev-1329Z used an input sourced after kickoff.
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (947 graded player-games).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1248 graded player-games).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
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