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NFL · PIT @ NO · Simulation

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

67.5%PIT win in the simulated games

32.2%NO win in the simulated games

0.3%tie after overtime

2.8%game goes to overtime

PIT 26 – 19 NOmedian score · averages 25.56 – 19.32

44median total · 80% of games 29–61

PIT by 6median margin · 80% range: PIT by 24 to NO by 11

42.5%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.0% · 6.3%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: NO points minus PIT points (below 0 means PIT won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (-6). Range shown -57 to 45.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (44). Range shown 4 to 96.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
PIT	13	26	38	25.56
NO	7	19	31	19.32

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	PIT median (80%)	NO median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	PIT wins it	NO wins it	Level
Q1	6 (0–13)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–17)	49.3%	32.8%	18.0%
Q2	7 (0–14)	6 (0–13)	13 (6–22)	52.6%	34.7%	12.8%
Q3	6 (0–13)	3 (0–10)	10 (3–17)	49.1%	32.5%	18.4%
Q4	7 (0–14)	6 (0–13)	10 (3–21)	50.1%	33.8%	16.1%
1st half	13 (3–23)	10 (3–18)	23 (13–35)	59.2%	34.2%	6.6%
2nd half	13 (3–21)	9 (0–17)	21 (10–34)	57.8%	33.8%	8.5%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	PIT	NO
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	63 (51–76)	61 (49–74)
Pass attempts	33 (24–42)	34 (25–44)
Completions	22 (16–30)	23 (16–30)
Passing yards	212 (129–307)	201 (119–294)
Passing TDs	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)
Interceptions	0 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	27 (19–36)	24 (17–33)
Rushing yards	130 (67–213)	107 (50–184)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	2 (0–3)	1 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
PIT	3.6%	15.3%	26.6%	26.7%	18.3%	9.6%
NO	11.0%	26.4%	30.8%	20.3%	8.6%	2.9%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

PIT passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Aaron Rodgers QB	31 (23–41)	21 (15–29)	205 (124–300)	1.7	0.6

PIT rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Jaylen Warren RB	14 (9–20)	69 (28–130)	0.6
Rico Dowdle RB	6 (3–10)	24 (5–63)	0.3
Aaron Rodgers QB	4 (1–7)	15 (1–44)	0.1
Travis Homer RB	1 (0–3)	1 (0–16)	0.0

PIT receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
DK Metcalf WR	7 (4–11)	5 (2–8)	41 (9–92)	0.4
Germie Bernard WR	6 (3–9)	4 (2–7)	35 (7–83)	0.3
Jaylen Warren RB	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	24 (1–66)	0.2
Pat Freiermuth TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	23 (2–62)	0.2
Darnell Washington TE	3 (1–6)	2 (1–4)	17 (0–53)	0.2
Michael Pittman Jr. WR	3 (1–6)	2 (1–4)	17 (0–54)	0.2

NO passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Tyler Shough QB	34 (25–44)	23 (16–30)	201 (119–294)	1.3	1.0

NO rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Kendre Miller RB	6 (3–10)	21 (3–58)	0.2
Travis Etienne Jr. RB	5 (3–9)	21 (3–58)	0.2
Tyler Shough QB	5 (2–8)	21 (3–57)	0.1
Alvin Kamara RB	4 (2–8)	15 (1–46)	0.1

NO receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Chris Olave WR	8 (4–12)	5 (2–9)	47 (12–100)	0.3
Devaughn Vele WR	6 (3–9)	4 (1–7)	28 (4–73)	0.2
Juwan Johnson TE	4 (2–7)	3 (1–6)	22 (2–63)	0.2
Alvin Kamara RB	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	13 (0–45)	0.1
Travis Etienne Jr. RB	2 (1–4)	2 (0–4)	9 (0–38)	0.1
Bryce Lance WR	3 (1–5)	1 (0–3)	8 (0–38)	0.1

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Jaylen Warren RB	PIT	56.0%	17.6%	17.0%
DK Metcalf WR	PIT	33.7%	5.5%	8.6%
Rico Dowdle RB	PIT	33.5%	5.8%	8.9%
Germie Bernard WR	PIT	27.9%	4.0%	6.8%
Chris Olave WR	NO	26.0%	3.4%	5.9%
Travis Etienne Jr. RB	NO	24.0%	2.8%	5.4%
Alvin Kamara RB	NO	23.9%	2.9%	5.8%
Pat Freiermuth TE	PIT	22.6%	2.5%	5.5%
Kendre Miller RB	NO	22.1%	2.4%	4.9%
Devaughn Vele WR	NO	18.7%	1.8%	4.5%
Darnell Washington TE	PIT	17.2%	1.3%	4.0%
Michael Pittman Jr. WR	PIT	16.8%	1.6%	4.0%
Juwan Johnson TE	NO	15.4%	1.1%	3.3%
Tyler Shough QB	NO	10.6%	0.6%	1.9%
Bryce Lance WR	NO	9.6%	0.5%	2.1%
Aaron Rodgers QB	PIT	9.5%	0.4%	2.1%

First touchdown by team: PIT 58.9% · NO 40.7% · no offensive touchdown 0.4%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: PIT 25 – 19 NO

By quarter: PIT 6 / 7 / 0 / 12 · NO 6 / 6 / 7 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (PIT–NO)
1	PIT	74	punt	3	3	0–0
1	NO	84	fg	3	68	0–3
1	PIT	74	turnover	2	71	0–3
1	NO	99	punt	3	8	0–3
1	PIT	64	punt	5	4	0–3
1	NO	62	fg	2	55	0–6
1	PIT	75	td	9	75	6–6
1	NO	65	fg	9	54	6–9
2	PIT	69	punt	3	2	6–9
2	NO	52	fg	9	51	6–12
2	PIT	72	td	10	72	13–12
2	NO	65	end half	3	-8	13–12
2	NO	65	downs	7	37	13–12
3	PIT	62	punt	3	-2	13–12
3	NO	80	td	11	80	13–19
3	PIT	64	fg	8	60	16–19
4	NO	80	punt	7	17	16–19
4	PIT	68	td	1	68	22–19
4	NO	65	turnover	7	1	22–19
4	PIT	30	fg	10	6	25–19

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: PIT 33 – 28 NO

By quarter: PIT 10 / 6 / 10 / 7 · NO 7 / 10 / 0 / 11

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (PIT–NO)
1	NO	65	td	4	65	0–7
1	PIT	72	fg	6	57	3–7
1	NO	43	punt	6	4	3–7
1	PIT	99	td	6	99	10–7
1	NO	70	punt	3	13	10–7
1	PIT	83	fg	11	55	13–7
2	NO	60	fg	7	44	13–10
2	PIT	70	turnover	3	48	13–10
2	NO	78	td	9	78	13–17
2	PIT	77	fg	16	61	16–17
2	PIT	68	fg	13	44	19–17
3	NO	71	downs	9	34	19–17
3	PIT	63	punt	3	6	19–17
3	NO	81	punt	8	7	19–17
3	PIT	80	td	4	80	26–17
3	NO	76	punt	3	27	26–17
4	PIT	82	punt	3	5	26–17
4	NO	62	downs	6	41	26–17
4	PIT	82	punt	4	3	26–17
4	NO	62	punt	5	8	26–17
4	PIT	76	td	14	76	33–17
4	NO	66	td	7	66	33–25
4	PIT	65	punt	8	0	33–25
4	NO	74	fg	8	40	33–28
4	PIT	70	end half	3	65	33–28

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: PIT 17 – 12 NO

By quarter: PIT 0 / 7 / 7 / 3 · NO 0 / 0 / 0 / 12

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (PIT–NO)
1	PIT	65	punt	3	4	0–0
1	NO	89	punt	3	18	0–0
1	PIT	64	punt	4	28	0–0
1	NO	99	punt	3	6	0–0
1	PIT	68	punt	3	17	0–0
1	NO	91	fg miss	9	76	0–0
2	PIT	77	downs	5	70	0–0
2	NO	99	turnover	2	10	0–0
2	PIT	1	td	12	1	7–0
2	NO	71	punt	3	4	7–0
2	PIT	78	punt	6	33	7–0
2	NO	99	punt	3	0	7–0
2	PIT	39	fg miss	4	1	7–0
2	NO	31	fg miss	13	30	7–0
2	NO	76	punt	7	19	7–0
3	PIT	91	punt	3	33	7–0
3	NO	91	turnover	5	0	7–0
3	PIT	21	td	7	21	14–0
3	NO	66	td	7	66	14–7
4	PIT	65	punt	3	9	14–7
4	NO	77	punt	3	11	14–7
4	PIT	93	safety	1	-7	14–9
4	NO	57	downs	12	11	14–9
4	PIT	54	fg	8	36	17–9
4	NO	73	fg	6	66	17–12
4	PIT	82	end half	3	-2	17–12

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 25, 8:46 AM ET · before kickoff Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET
Seed	3d014f13 · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 45 / margin.median -6 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means NO 19.6 / PIT 25.57
Availability	injuries as of Oct 25, 8:36 AM ET · rosters as of Oct 25, 8:36 AM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873011:ae9b20ffaa0d99f2

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.