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Regular season · week 3 · Sunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET

New York JetsatDetroit LionsEXPERIMENTAL

Ford Field

New York JetsDetroit LionsSaved on this device

Research matchup

Indoors — roofed stadium, no weather to report — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.

Simulation story

5 chapters · read from the published artifact

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› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

NYJ @ DET

New York Jets at Detroit Lions at Ford Field.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

NYJ 20 — 30 DET

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

NYJ 24.0% · DET 73.7%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.3%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 33 and 67

DET winning margin

a minus means NYJ wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -7 and 26

Model details

From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Generated 2026-09-24T19:52:17Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

NYJ 20 — 30 DETwin chance NYJ 24.0% · DET 73.7%total 50 (33–67)margin +9

NYJ

Likely TD scorers

Breece Hall 44.7% · available role uncertain

Garrett Wilson 32.1% · available role uncertain

Adonai Mitchell 23.0% · available role uncertain

Passing

Geno Smith 215 pass yds (119–351) · available role uncertain

Rushing leaders

Breece Hall 53 rush yds (15–128) · available role uncertain

Braelon Allen 14 rush yds (1–55) · available role uncertain

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Sterling Shepard 3 rec · 29.9 yds/g at TB

Will Levis 160.3 pass yds/g at TEN

Geno Smith 173.4 pass yds/g at LV

Receiving leaders

Garrett Wilson 5 rec · 60 yds · available role uncertain

Adonai Mitchell 4 rec · 46 yds · available role uncertain

Isaiah Williams 3 rec · 23 yds · available role uncertain

DET

Likely TD scorers

Jahmyr Gibbs 69.1% · available role uncertain

Amon-Ra St. Brown 59.8% · available role uncertain

Sam LaPorta 32.7% · available role uncertain

Passing

Jared Goff 241 pass yds (137–388) · available role uncertain

Rushing leaders

Jahmyr Gibbs 77 rush yds (25–177) · available role uncertain

Justin Jackson 4 rush yds (0–34) · available role uncertain

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Isiah Pacheco 1.3 rec · 7.7 yds/g at KC

Receiving leaders

Amon-Ra St. Brown 7 rec · 83 yds · available role uncertain

Jahmyr Gibbs 4 rec · 37 yds · available role uncertain

Sam LaPorta 4 rec · 44 yds · available role uncertain

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
New York Jets	8	20	32
Detroit Lions	17	30	41

Exact score

The likeliest final scores

from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above

Score (NYJ – DET)	Chance
20–23	0.63%
20–27	0.61%
24–27	0.56%
17–20	0.53%
17–27	0.50%
17–34	0.47%

No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.

Key numbers

How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14

football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you

Margin	This game	Last 3 regular seasons
Decided by exactly 3	8.5%	14.2%
Decided by exactly 7	5.9%	8.3%
Decided by exactly 10	5.1%	4.2%
Decided by exactly 14	4.6%	4.4%
Any of the four	24.1%	31.1%

The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.

NYJ touchdowns

2.3

DET touchdowns

3.2

NYJ field goals

1.6

DET field goals

2.2

Tied after regulation

3.0%

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

No current sportsbook capture covers this game.

Player projections · 18 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.

Player	Team	Availability	Receptions (10th–90th)	Rec yards (10th–90th)	TD chance
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	role uncertain	7 (3–14)	83 (38–153)	59.8%
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	role uncertain	5 (2–11)	60 (24–121)	32.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	role uncertain	4 (1–8)	37 (12–81)	69.1%
Sam LaPorta	DET	role uncertain	4 (1–9)	44 (15–93)	32.7%
Adonai Mitchell	NYJ	role uncertain	4 (1–9)	46 (16–101)	23.0%
Jameson Williams	DET	role uncertain	3 (1–7)	40 (11–91)	27.0%
Isaiah Williams	NYJ	role uncertain	3 (0–6)	23 (4–57)	14.2%
Breece Hall	NYJ	role uncertain	2 (0–5)	22 (1–58)	44.7%
Kenyon Sadiq	NYJ	role uncertain	2 (0–5)	20 (0–54)	13.3%
Mason Taylor	NYJ	questionable	2 (0–5)	17 (0–48)	11.7%
Isaac TeSlaa	DET	role uncertain	1 (0–4)	13 (0–44)	14.4%
Jeremy Ruckert	NYJ	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	8 (0–32)	6.6%

New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above

Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.

Player	Team	Availability	Last club	Per game (prior club)
Isiah Pacheco RB	DET	out	KC · 16g	1.3 rec · 7.7 yds · 30.7 rush yds
Sterling Shepard WR	NYJ	active uncertain	TB · 14g	3 rec · 29.9 yds
Will Levis QB	NYJ	active uncertain	TEN · 14g	13.3 rush yds · 160.3 pass yds
Geno Smith QB	NYJ	active uncertain	LV · 18g	6.1 rush yds · 173.4 pass yds

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 18 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

69.1% Jahmyr Gibbs · DET · available role uncertain
59.8% Amon-Ra St. Brown · DET · available role uncertain
44.7% Breece Hall · NYJ · available role uncertain
32.7% Sam LaPorta · DET · available role uncertain
32.1% Garrett Wilson · NYJ · available role uncertain
27.0% Jameson Williams · DET · available role uncertain

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations: 10,000
input hash: 49b6512ba7e78ada
generated: 2026-09-24T19:52:17Z
kickoff: 2026-09-27T17:00Z
state: UPCOMING

Player-family model provenance (4 published)

Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (111 graded player-games so far).
Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (200 graded player-games so far).
Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (200 graded player-games so far).
Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (267 graded player-games so far).

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.