ATL @ GB
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.
Regular season · week 3 · Thursday, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET
Atlanta Falconsat
Green Bay PackersEXPERIMENTAL
Lambeau Field
62°F · 2 mph wind from the SE · 0% chance of rain · mostly cloudy — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.
Simulation story
5 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Simulation
What our model expects
10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1
Projected score
ATL 20 — 25 GB
the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Win chance
ATL 30.3% · GB 67.0%
how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.7%
Total points (both teams)
45
8 in 10 simulations landed between 28 and 62
GB winning margin
+5
a minus means ATL wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -11 and 22
Model details
From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Generated 2026-09-24T21:36:24Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameATL 20 — 25 GBwin chance ATL 30.3% · GB 67.0%total 45 (28–62)margin +5
ATL
Likely TD scorers
Bijan Robinson 51.1% · available role uncertain
Drake London 26.1% · available role uncertain
Brian Robinson 21.0% · available role uncertain
Passing
Michael Penix Jr. 189 pass yds (99–322) · available role uncertain
Rushing leaders
Bijan Robinson 64 rush yds (19–153) · available role uncertain
Brian Robinson 27 rush yds (5–84) · available role uncertain
New arrivals · not in these numbers
Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.
Olamide Zaccheaus 2.5 rec · 22.4 yds/g at CHI
Tua Tagovailoa 171 pass yds/g at MIA
Receiving leaders
Bijan Robinson 6 rec · 57 yds · available role uncertain
Drake London 4 rec · 46 yds · available role uncertain
Kyle Pitts 2 rec · 26 yds · available role uncertain
GB
Likely TD scorers
Christian Watson 47.6% · available role uncertain
Josh Jacobs 43.8% · available role uncertain
MarShawn Lloyd 30.9% · available role uncertain
Passing
Jordan Love 219 pass yds (117–367) · available role uncertain
Rushing leaders
Josh Jacobs 47 rush yds (12–121) · available role uncertain
MarShawn Lloyd 34 rush yds (8–95) · available role uncertain
New arrivals · not in these numbers
Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.
Tyrod Taylor 129.8 pass yds/g at NYJ
Jonnu Smith 2.2 rec · 12.3 yds/g at PIT
Receiving leaders
Christian Watson 5 rec · 63 yds · available role uncertain
Matthew Golden 4 rec · 45 yds · available role uncertain
Tucker Kraft 3 rec · 32 yds · available role uncertain
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Range
How wide the outcomes are
the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score
| Team | Low (10th) | Projected | High (90th) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 8 | 20 | 32 |
| Green Bay Packers | 13 | 25 | 37 |
Exact score
The likeliest final scores
from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above
| Score (ATL – GB) | Chance |
|---|---|
| 17–20 | 0.73% |
| 17–24 | 0.69% |
| 20–17 | 0.66% |
| 24–27 | 0.64% |
| 23–20 | 0.60% |
| 20–23 | 0.58% |
No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.
Key numbers
How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14
football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you
| Margin | This game | Last 3 regular seasons |
|---|---|---|
| Decided by exactly 3 | 9.9% | 14.2% |
| Decided by exactly 7 | 7.4% | 8.3% |
| Decided by exactly 10 | 5.6% | 4.2% |
| Decided by exactly 14 | 4.8% | 4.4% |
| Any of the four | 27.7% | 31.1% |
The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.
ATL touchdowns
2.3
GB touchdowns
2.7
ATL field goals
1.6
GB field goals
1.9
Tied after regulation
3.7%
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
67.0%
GB to win
Sportsbook win chance
68.2%
GB to win, read from 6 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-1.2 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
45 vs 43
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured 2026-09-24T21:36:24Z — before kickoff.
Player projections · 21 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | role uncertain | 6 (2–11) | 57 (23–113) | 51.1% |
| Christian Watson | GB | role uncertain | 5 (1–10) | 63 (23–130) | 47.6% |
| Drake London | ATL | role uncertain | 4 (1–8) | 46 (15–101) | 26.1% |
| Matthew Golden | GB | role uncertain | 4 (1–8) | 45 (15–100) | 25.8% |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | role uncertain | 3 (1–6) | 32 (7–78) | 22.6% |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | role uncertain | 2 (0–4) | 15 (0–45) | 43.8% |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | role uncertain | 2 (0–6) | 26 (4–66) | 16.8% |
| Drake Dabney | GB | role uncertain | 2 (0–5) | 21 (0–56) | 16.6% |
| Jahan Dotson | ATL | role uncertain | 2 (0–5) | 24 (3–62) | 16.2% |
| Skyy Moore | GB | role uncertain | 1 (0–3) | 10 (0–38) | 10.4% |
| Luke Musgrave | GB | role uncertain | 1 (0–3) | 11 (0–40) | 10.2% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | ATL | role uncertain | 1 (0–3) | 11 (0–38) | 9.9% |
| Austin Hooper | ATL | role uncertain | 1 (0–3) | 11 (0–39) | 8.9% |
New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above
Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.
| Player | Team | Availability | Last club | Per game (prior club) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor QB | GB | active uncertain | NYJ · 6g | 23.8 rush yds · 129.8 pass yds |
| Jonnu Smith TE | GB | active uncertain | PIT · 18g | 2.2 rec · 12.3 yds |
| Olamide Zaccheaus WR | ATL | active uncertain | CHI · 18g | 2.5 rec · 22.4 yds |
| Tua Tagovailoa QB | ATL | active uncertain | MIA · 16g | 2.7 rush yds · 171 pass yds |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 19 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 51.1% Bijan Robinson · ATL · available role uncertain
- 47.6% Christian Watson · GB · available role uncertain
- 43.8% Josh Jacobs · GB · available role uncertain
- 30.9% MarShawn Lloyd · GB · available role uncertain
- 26.1% Drake London · ATL · available role uncertain
- 25.8% Matthew Golden · GB · available role uncertain
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Experimental
- Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.
Provenance
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- e88160ddfe62ecd5
- generated
- 2026-09-24T21:36:24Z
- kickoff
- 2026-09-25T00:15Z
- state
- UPCOMING
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (111 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (200 graded player-games so far).
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (200 graded player-games so far).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (267 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- LAC @ BUFSunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
- CAR @ CLESunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
- NYJ @ DETSunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
- HOU @ INDSunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
- KC @ MIASunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ NYGSunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
- CIN @ PITSunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
- SEA @ WSHSunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
- NE @ JAXSunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET
- ARI @ SFSunday, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET
- MIN @ TBSunday, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET
- BAL @ DALSunday, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET
- LV @ NOSunday, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET
- LAR @ DENSunday, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ET
- PHI @ CHIMonday, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET