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Regular season · week 3 · Sunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET

Seattle SeahawksatWashington CommandersEXPERIMENTAL

Northwest Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWashington CommandersSaved on this device

68°F · 14 mph wind from the NW · 10% chance of rain · partly sunny — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.

Simulation story

5 chapters · read from the published artifact

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SEA @ WSH

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

SEA 26 — 21 WSH

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

SEA 76.8% · WSH 20.1%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 3.1%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 30 and 63

WSH winning margin

-6

a minus means SEA wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -22 and 10

Model details

From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Generated 2026-09-24T19:52:17Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

SEA 26 — 21 WSHwin chance SEA 76.8% · WSH 20.1%total 47 (30–63)margin -6

SEA

Likely TD scorers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba 62.7% · available role uncertain

Jadarian Price 32.0% · questionable

Emanuel Wilson 22.4% · available role uncertain

Passing

Drew Lock 161 pass yds (81–283) · available role uncertain

Rushing leaders

Jadarian Price 36 rush yds (8–103) · questionable

Emanuel Wilson 28 rush yds (5–85) · available role uncertain

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Emanuel Wilson 0.8 rec · 6.5 yds/g at GB

Receiving leaders

Jaxon Smith-Njigba 8 rec · 108 yds · available role uncertain

Rashid Shaheed 3 rec · 27 yds · available role uncertain

Cooper Kupp 2 rec · 27 yds · questionable

WSH

Likely TD scorers

Stefon Diggs 40.3% · available role uncertain

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 34.6% · available role uncertain

Rachaad White 28.4% · available role uncertain

Passing

Marcus Mariota 126 pass yds (60–230) · available role uncertain

Rushing leaders

Jacory Croskey-Merritt 38 rush yds (9–104) · available role uncertain

Rachaad White 17 rush yds (2–67) · available role uncertain

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Rachaad White 2.2 rec · 12.1 yds/g at TB

Stefon Diggs 4.7 rec · 53.5 yds/g at NE

Chig Okonkwo 3.2 rec · 31.7 yds/g at TEN

Receiving leaders

Stefon Diggs 5 rec · 50 yds · available role uncertain

Terry McLaurin 4 rec · 42 yds · available role uncertain

Rachaad White 3 rec · 24 yds · available role uncertain

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Seattle Seahawks	14	26	38
Washington Commanders	8	21	32

Exact score

The likeliest final scores

from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above

Score (SEA – WSH)	Chance
20–17	0.78%
27–24	0.68%
23–20	0.64%
17–20	0.63%
24–27	0.61%
27–17	0.60%

No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.

Key numbers

How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14

football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you

Margin	This game	Last 3 regular seasons
Decided by exactly 3	9.7%	14.2%
Decided by exactly 7	6.5%	8.3%
Decided by exactly 10	5.7%	4.2%
Decided by exactly 14	4.6%	4.4%
Any of the four	26.5%	31.1%

The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.

SEA touchdowns

2.8

WSH touchdowns

2.3

SEA field goals

1.9

WSH field goals

1.6

Tied after regulation

3.5%

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

No current sportsbook capture covers this game.

Player projections · 24 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.

Player	Team	Availability	Receptions (10th–90th)	Rec yards (10th–90th)	TD chance
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	role uncertain	8 (3–16)	108 (51–196)	62.7%
Stefon Diggs	WSH	role uncertain	5 (1–10)	50 (18–104)	40.3%
Terry McLaurin	WSH	role uncertain	4 (1–8)	42 (12–95)	27.0%
Rachaad White	WSH	role uncertain	3 (1–6)	24 (5–58)	28.4%
Rashid Shaheed	SEA	role uncertain	3 (0–6)	27 (4–68)	21.1%
Cooper Kupp	SEA	questionable	2 (0–6)	27 (4–68)	18.9%
Antonio Williams	WSH	role uncertain	2 (0–5)	24 (2–62)	17.8%
Jeremy McNichols	WSH	role uncertain	2 (0–4)	15 (0–45)	17.5%
Dyami Brown	WSH	role uncertain	2 (0–5)	21 (1–56)	16.6%
Chig Okonkwo	WSH	questionable	2 (0–5)	18 (0–52)	14.4%
Jadarian Price	SEA	questionable	1 (0–4)	13 (0–42)	32.0%
AJ Barner	SEA	role uncertain	1 (0–4)	14 (0–44)	14.2%
Treylon Burks	WSH	role uncertain	1 (0–4)	13 (0–44)	12.3%
Tory Horton	SEA	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	7 (0–34)	10.1%
Luke McCaffrey	WSH	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	10 (0–39)	10.0%

New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above

Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.

Player	Team	Availability	Last club	Per game (prior club)
Rachaad White RB	WSH	active uncertain	TB · 18g	2.2 rec · 12.1 yds · 33.3 rush yds
Stefon Diggs WR	WSH	active uncertain	NE · 21g	4.7 rec · 53.5 yds
Chig Okonkwo TE	WSH	questionable	TEN · 18g	3.2 rec · 31.7 yds
Dyami Brown WR	WSH	active uncertain	JAX · 12g	1.7 rec · 18.9 yds
Van Jefferson WR	WSH	active uncertain	TEN · 17g	1.9 rec · 26.6 yds
Emanuel Wilson RB	SEA	active uncertain	GB · 20g	0.8 rec · 6.5 yds · 28.5 rush yds

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 22 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

62.7% Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA · available role uncertain
40.3% Stefon Diggs · WSH · available role uncertain
34.6% Jacory Croskey-Merritt · WSH · available role uncertain
32.0% Jadarian Price · SEA · questionable
28.4% Rachaad White · WSH · available role uncertain
27.0% Terry McLaurin · WSH · available role uncertain

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations: 10,000
input hash: 6aefbd2756724c51
generated: 2026-09-24T19:52:17Z
kickoff: 2026-09-27T17:00Z
state: UPCOMING

Player-family model provenance (4 published)

Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (111 graded player-games so far).
Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (200 graded player-games so far).
Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (200 graded player-games so far).
Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (267 graded player-games so far).

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.