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Regular season · week 3 · Sunday, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET

Las Vegas RaidersatNew Orleans SaintsEXPERIMENTAL

Caesars Superdome

Las Vegas RaidersNew Orleans SaintsSaved on this device

Research matchup

Indoors — roofed stadium, no weather to report — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.

Simulation story

5 chapters · read from the published artifact

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LV @ NO

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

LV 17 — 22 NO

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

LV 37.3% · NO 59.6%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 3.1%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 22 and 56

NO winning margin

a minus means LV wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -13 and 20

Model details

From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Generated 2026-09-24T19:52:17Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

LV 17 — 22 NOwin chance LV 37.3% · NO 59.6%total 39 (22–56)margin +4

Likely TD scorers

Ashton Jeanty 51.4% · available role uncertain

Brock Bowers 36.9% · questionable

Tre Tucker 30.8% · available role uncertain

Passing

Kirk Cousins 209 pass yds (114–346) · available role uncertain

Rushing leaders

Ashton Jeanty 59 rush yds (19–138) · available role uncertain

Mike Washington Jr. 8 rush yds (0–46) · available role uncertain

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Jalen Nailor 1.7 rec · 25.2 yds/g at MIN

Kirk Cousins 172.1 pass yds/g at ATL

Receiving leaders

Brock Bowers 5 rec · 50 yds · questionable

Ashton Jeanty 4 rec · 36 yds · available role uncertain

Tre Tucker 4 rec · 44 yds · available role uncertain

Likely TD scorers

Chris Olave 38.7% · available role uncertain

Alvin Kamara 36.6% · available role uncertain

Travis Etienne 33.5% · questionable

Passing

Tyler Shough 241 pass yds (138–386) · available role uncertain

Rushing leaders

Alvin Kamara 28 rush yds (5–81) · available role uncertain

Travis Etienne 26 rush yds (4–82) · questionable

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Travis Etienne Jr. 2.1 rec · 17.9 yds/g at JAX

Noah Fant 2.6 rec · 22.2 yds/g at CIN

Cedric Tillman 1.7 rec · 22.2 yds/g at CLE

Receiving leaders

Chris Olave 6 rec · 80 yds · available role uncertain

Devaughn Vele 4 rec · 41 yds · available role uncertain

Alvin Kamara 3 rec · 28 yds · available role uncertain

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Las Vegas Raiders	6	17	30
New Orleans Saints	9	22	33

Exact score

The likeliest final scores

from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above

Score (LV – NO)	Chance
17–20	1.10%
20–17	0.95%
24–17	0.68%
17–24	0.66%
13–10	0.64%
10–17	0.64%

No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.

Key numbers

How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14

football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you

Margin	This game	Last 3 regular seasons
Decided by exactly 3	11.5%	14.2%
Decided by exactly 7	7.6%	8.3%
Decided by exactly 10	6.2%	4.2%
Decided by exactly 14	5.0%	4.4%
Any of the four	30.3%	31.1%

The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.

LV touchdowns

2.1

NO touchdowns

2.3

LV field goals

1.4

NO field goals

1.6

Tied after regulation

4.5%

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

No current sportsbook capture covers this game.

Player projections · 25 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.

Player	Team	Availability	Receptions (10th–90th)	Rec yards (10th–90th)	TD chance
Chris Olave	NO	role uncertain	6 (2–12)	80 (35–152)	38.7%
Brock Bowers	LV	questionable	5 (1–10)	50 (19–103)	36.9%
Ashton Jeanty	LV	role uncertain	4 (1–9)	36 (12–78)	51.4%
Tre Tucker	LV	role uncertain	4 (1–8)	44 (13–99)	30.8%
Devaughn Vele	NO	role uncertain	4 (1–8)	41 (13–90)	25.2%
Michael Mayer	LV	role uncertain	4 (1–8)	33 (10–75)	23.1%
Alvin Kamara	NO	role uncertain	3 (1–7)	28 (8–64)	36.6%
Juwan Johnson	NO	role uncertain	3 (1–7)	36 (9–84)	21.0%
Travis Etienne	NO	questionable	2 (0–6)	21 (3–54)	33.5%
Jalen Nailor	LV	role uncertain	2 (0–5)	25 (3–64)	20.6%
Jack Bech	LV	role uncertain	2 (0–5)	19 (0–53)	17.1%
Cody White	LV	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	8 (0–35)	12.4%
Noah Fant	NO	role uncertain	1 (0–4)	12 (0–40)	11.9%
Dont'e Thornton Jr.	LV	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	8 (0–35)	9.9%
Mason Tipton	NO	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	8 (0–34)	9.3%
Malik Benson	LV	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	6 (0–31)	9.0%
Bryce Lance	NO	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	9 (0–36)	7.7%

New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above

Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.

Player	Team	Availability	Last club	Per game (prior club)
Travis Etienne Jr. RB	NO	questionable	JAX · 20g	2.1 rec · 17.9 yds · 60.2 rush yds
Noah Fant TE	NO	active uncertain	CIN · 13g	2.6 rec · 22.2 yds
Cedric Tillman WR	NO	active uncertain	CLE · 13g	1.7 rec · 22.2 yds
Jalen Nailor WR	LV	active uncertain	MIN · 18g	1.7 rec · 25.2 yds
Kirk Cousins QB	LV	active uncertain	ATL · 10g	0.7 rush yds · 172.1 pass yds

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 25 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

51.4% Ashton Jeanty · LV · available role uncertain
38.7% Chris Olave · NO · available role uncertain
36.9% Brock Bowers · LV · questionable
36.6% Alvin Kamara · NO · available role uncertain
33.5% Travis Etienne · NO · questionable
30.8% Tre Tucker · LV · available role uncertain

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations: 10,000
input hash: 2dc41720e9ba867e
generated: 2026-09-24T19:52:17Z
kickoff: 2026-09-27T20:25Z
state: UPCOMING

Player-family model provenance (4 published)

Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (111 graded player-games so far).
Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (200 graded player-games so far).
Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (200 graded player-games so far).
Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (267 graded player-games so far).

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.