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Regular season · week 3 · Monday, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET

Philadelphia EaglesatChicago BearsEXPERIMENTAL

Soldier Field

Philadelphia EaglesChicago BearsSaved on this device

63°F · 5 mph wind from the E · 0% chance of rain · partly cloudy — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.

Simulation story

5 chapters · read from the published artifact

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› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

PHI @ CHI

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears at Soldier Field.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

PHI 25 — 23 CHI

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

PHI 50.4% · CHI 47.0%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.6%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 30 and 65

CHI winning margin

-1

a minus means PHI wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -18 and 16

Model details

From the replay-validated Elo-logistic head, published exactly as evaluated on a held-out 2025 season — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Generated 2026-09-24T19:52:17Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

PHI 25 — 23 CHIwin chance PHI 50.4% · CHI 47.0%total 48 (30–65)margin -1

PHI

Likely TD scorers

DeVonta Smith 39.6% · available role uncertain

Saquon Barkley 35.7% · questionable

Dallas Goedert 33.8% · questionable

Passing

Jalen Hurts 215 pass yds (118–357) · available role uncertain

Rushing leaders

Saquon Barkley 44 rush yds (11–117) · questionable

Tank Bigsby 16 rush yds (2–62) · available role uncertain

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Jaydon Blue 0.2 rec · 0.8 yds/g at DAL

Zach Ertz 3.8 rec · 38.8 yds/g at WSH

Hollywood Brown 3.1 rec · 36.7 yds/g at KC

Receiving leaders

DeVonta Smith 6 rec · 68 yds · available role uncertain

Dallas Goedert 3 rec · 34 yds · questionable

Dontayvion Wicks 3 rec · 42 yds · available role uncertain

CHI

Likely TD scorers

D'Andre Swift 60.9% · available role uncertain

Kyle Monangai 38.1% · questionable

Kalif Raymond 28.4% · available role uncertain

Passing

Caleb Williams 201 pass yds (108–337) · questionable

Rushing leaders

D'Andre Swift 52 rush yds (14–133) · available role uncertain

Kyle Monangai 33 rush yds (6–103) · questionable

Receiving leaders

Kalif Raymond 6 rec · 60 yds · available role uncertain

Luther Burden III 4 rec · 43 yds · available role uncertain

Rome Odunze 3 rec · 32 yds · available role uncertain

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Philadelphia Eagles	12	25	36
Chicago Bears	11	23	35

Exact score

The likeliest final scores

from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above

Score (PHI – CHI)	Chance
17–20	0.76%
24–27	0.68%
23–20	0.63%
20–17	0.60%
20–23	0.58%
27–24	0.56%

No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.

Key numbers

How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14

football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you

Margin	This game	Last 3 regular seasons
Decided by exactly 3	10.4%	14.2%
Decided by exactly 7	6.9%	8.3%
Decided by exactly 10	5.6%	4.2%
Decided by exactly 14	4.7%	4.4%
Any of the four	27.6%	31.1%

The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.

PHI touchdowns

2.6

CHI touchdowns

2.6

PHI field goals

1.8

CHI field goals

1.7

Tied after regulation

3.6%

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

No current sportsbook capture covers this game.

Player projections · 20 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.

Player	Team	Availability	Receptions (10th–90th)	Rec yards (10th–90th)	TD chance
DeVonta Smith	PHI	role uncertain	6 (2–12)	68 (28–133)	39.6%
Kalif Raymond	CHI	role uncertain	6 (2–11)	60 (25–118)	28.4%
Luther Burden III	CHI	role uncertain	4 (1–8)	43 (14–94)	24.1%
Dallas Goedert	PHI	questionable	3 (1–7)	34 (9–80)	33.8%
Dontayvion Wicks	PHI	role uncertain	3 (1–7)	42 (12–96)	28.6%
Rome Odunze	CHI	role uncertain	3 (1–6)	32 (6–80)	19.4%
D'Andre Swift	CHI	role uncertain	2 (0–5)	18 (0–52)	60.9%
Colston Loveland	CHI	role uncertain	2 (0–6)	27 (4–67)	19.3%
Makai Lemon	PHI	role uncertain	2 (0–5)	17 (0–48)	16.2%
Kyle Monangai	CHI	questionable	1 (0–4)	13 (0–42)	38.1%
Saquon Barkley	PHI	questionable	1 (0–4)	13 (0–42)	35.7%
Cole Kmet	CHI	role uncertain	1 (0–4)	13 (0–44)	13.1%
Sam Roush	CHI	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	7 (0–33)	7.9%

New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above

Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.

Player	Team	Availability	Last club	Per game (prior club)
Jaydon Blue RB	PHI	active uncertain	DAL · 6g	0.2 rec · 0.8 yds · 25.7 rush yds
Zach Ertz TE	PHI	active uncertain	WSH · 13g	3.8 rec · 38.8 yds
Hollywood Brown WR	PHI	active uncertain	KC · 16g	3.1 rec · 36.7 yds
Dontayvion Wicks WR	PHI	active uncertain	GB · 13g	2.3 rec · 25.5 yds

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 20 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

60.9% D'Andre Swift · CHI · available role uncertain
39.6% DeVonta Smith · PHI · available role uncertain
38.1% Kyle Monangai · CHI · questionable
35.7% Saquon Barkley · PHI · questionable
33.8% Dallas Goedert · PHI · questionable
28.6% Dontayvion Wicks · PHI · available role uncertain

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations: 10,000
input hash: 0ea7323f81d66275
generated: 2026-09-24T19:52:17Z
kickoff: 2026-09-29T00:15Z
state: UPCOMING

Player-family model provenance (4 published)

Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (111 graded player-games so far).
Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (200 graded player-games so far).
Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (200 graded player-games so far).
Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (267 graded player-games so far).

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.