IND @ KC
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs, Sun, Sep 20. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · final
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was IND 30 – 33 KC, from the Week 2 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: IND 30 – 33 KC
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 21, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Indianapolis Colts · 30
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 210Forecast 198 (107–329) · in range | 10Forecast 2 (0–27) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 9.1% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 0 | 92Forecast 86 (29–194) · in range | 4Forecast 2 (0–6) · in range | 40Forecast 23 (4–60) · in range | YesForecast 75.9% |
| Josh Downs | 0 | 0 | 7Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 72Forecast 32 (8–76) · in range | NoForecast 21.2% |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0 | 0 | 3 | 61 | No |
| Tyler Warren | 0 | 3 | 6Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 21Forecast 37 (12–81) · in range | YesForecast 28.3% |
| Deion Burks | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Alec Pierce | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 11Forecast 45 (13–101) · outside range | NoForecast 26.1% |
| Keenan Allen | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 5Forecast 40 (14–85) · outside range | NoForecast 24.0% |
| Anthony RichardsonNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 68 (26–144) | —Forecast 6 (0–41) | — | — | —Forecast 14.9% |
| Player lines added up | 210 | 119 | 22 | 210 |
26 other Indianapolis Colts players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Kansas City Chiefs · 33
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 382Forecast 212 (115–353) · outside range | 17Forecast 11 (1–55) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 18.5% |
| Kenneth Walker III | 0 | 117Forecast 73 (21–178) · in range | 6Forecast 5 (1–10) · in range | 61Forecast 48 (18–99) · in range | NoForecast 63.0% |
| Travis Kelce | 0 | 0 | 9Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 101Forecast 46 (16–100) · outside range | YesForecast 26.1% |
| Tyquan Thornton | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 1 (0–3) · outside range | 86Forecast 7 (0–35) · outside range | NoForecast 8.0% |
| Rashee Rice | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 83Forecast 40 (13–88) · in range | NoForecast 30.5% |
| Emmett Johnson | 0 | 15Forecast 14 (1–57) · in range | 2Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 20Forecast 16 (0–50) · in range | NoForecast 25.7% |
| Xavier Worthy | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 3 (1–8) · in range | 25Forecast 37 (11–83) · in range | YesForecast 24.7% |
| Jalen Royals | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | Yes |
| Khyiris Tonga | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Brashard Smith | 0 | 0Forecast 6 (0–40) · in range | 0Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 0Forecast 13 (0–42) · in range | NoForecast 20.5% |
| Noah Gray | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0Forecast 8 (0–34) · in range | NoForecast 8.3% |
| Player lines added up | 382 | 152 | 32 | 382 |
21 other Kansas City Chiefs players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 2 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET · Arrowhead Stadium
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Indianapolis Colts32.0% to winPregame projection
20–25
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Kansas City Chiefs65.3% to winKansas City Chiefs were the projected winner, 65.3% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
KC +5
8 in 10 outcomes between -11 and +22
Expected total
45
8 in 10 outcomes between 28 and 62
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameIND 20 — 25 KCwin chance IND 32.0% · KC 65.3%total 45 (28–62)margin +5
IND
Likely TD scorers
Jonathan Taylor 75.9%
Tyler Warren 28.3%
Alec Pierce 26.1%
Passing
Daniel Jones 198 pass yds (107–329)
Rushing leaders
Jonathan Taylor 86 rush yds (29–194)
Anthony Richardson 6 rush yds (0–41)
Receiving leaders
Tyler Warren 4 rec · 37 yds
Keenan Allen 4 rec · 40 yds
Alec Pierce 3 rec · 45 yds
KC
Likely TD scorers
Kenneth Walker III 63.0%
Rashee Rice 30.5%
Travis Kelce 26.1%
Passing
Patrick Mahomes 212 pass yds (115–353)
Rushing leaders
Kenneth Walker III 73 rush yds (21–178)
Emmett Johnson 14 rush yds (1–57)
Receiving leaders
Kenneth Walker III 5 rec · 48 yds
Rashee Rice 4 rec · 40 yds
Travis Kelce 4 rec · 46 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
65.3%
KC to win
Sportsbook win chance
70.6%
KC to win, read from 3 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-5.4 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
45 vs 46
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 16 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | 5 (1–10) | 48 (18–99) | 63.0% | |
| Rashee Rice | KC | 4 (1–8) | 40 (13–88) | 30.5% | |
| Tyler Warren | IND | 4 (1–8) | 37 (12–81) | 28.3% | |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 4 (1–9) | 46 (16–100) | 26.1% | |
| Keenan Allen | IND | 4 (1–9) | 40 (14–85) | 24.0% | |
| Alec Pierce | IND | 3 (1–7) | 45 (13–101) | 26.1% | |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | 3 (1–8) | 37 (11–83) | 24.7% | |
| Josh Downs | IND | 3 (1–7) | 32 (8–76) | 21.2% | |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 2 (0–6) | 23 (4–60) | 75.9% | |
| Emmett Johnson | KC | 1 (0–4) | 16 (0–50) | 25.7% | |
| Brashard Smith | KC | 1 (0–4) | 13 (0–42) | 20.5% | |
| Noah Gray | KC | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–34) | 8.3% | |
| Tyquan Thornton | KC | 1 (0–3) | 7 (0–35) | 8.0% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 16 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 75.9% Jonathan Taylor · IND
- 63.0% Kenneth Walker III · KC
- 30.5% Rashee Rice · KC
- 28.3% Tyler Warren · IND
- 26.1% Travis Kelce · KC
- 26.1% Alec Pierce · IND
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- da79228434fee560
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ PITSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET