WSH @ DAL
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys, Sun, Sep 20. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · final
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was WSH 20 – 37 DAL, from the Week 2 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: WSH 20 – 37 DAL
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 21, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Washington Commanders · 20
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 96Forecast 179 (95–303) · in range | 69Forecast 18 (2–70) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 18.0% |
| Marcus Mariota | 111Forecast 152 (75–269) · in range | 3Forecast 10 (0–53) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 12.8% |
| Rachaad White | 0 | 43Forecast 16 (2–63) · in range | 6Forecast 1 (0–4) · outside range | 40Forecast 11 (0–37) · outside range | NoForecast 24.3% |
| Terry McLaurin | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 50Forecast 39 (12–89) · in range | NoForecast 25.4% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 0 | 43Forecast 41 (10–111) · in range | 1 | 5 | NoForecast 40.7% |
| Stefon Diggs | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 6 (2–12) · in range | 47Forecast 66 (27–129) · in range | YesForecast 40.4% |
| Antonio Williams | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 24Forecast 30 (6–74) · in range | NoForecast 21.8% |
| Kaytron Allen | 0 | 24Forecast 6 (0–41) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 10.6% |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 1 (0–3) · outside range | 21Forecast 10 (0–38) · in range | NoForecast 9.7% |
| Colson Yankoff | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | No |
| Ben Sinnott | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | No |
| Treylon Burks | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 2 (0–6) · in range | 0Forecast 26 (4–65) · outside range | NoForecast 19.2% |
| Jeremy McNicholsNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 2 (0–29) | —Forecast 2 (0–4) | —Forecast 14 (0–45) | —Forecast 17.8% |
| John BatesNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–4) | —Forecast 12 (0–40) | —Forecast 10.7% |
| Luke McCaffreyNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 10 (0–39) | —Forecast 9.7% |
| Player lines added up | 207 | 182 | 23 | 207 |
21 other Washington Commanders players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Dallas Cowboys · 37
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 279Forecast 209 (116–344) · in range | 26Forecast 4 (0–35) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 8.9% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 0 | 0 | 8Forecast 5 (1–10) · in range | 153Forecast 53 (20–109) · outside range | YesForecast 35.0% |
| Javonte Williams | 0 | 30Forecast 55 (15–137) · in range | 3Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 20Forecast 21 (3–54) · in range | NoForecast 57.0% |
| Jake Ferguson | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 43Forecast 19 (0–51) · in range | YesForecast 16.1% |
| George Pickens | 0 | 0 | 6Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 40Forecast 47 (16–103) · in range | NoForecast 28.2% |
| Ryan Flournoy | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 23Forecast 28 (5–69) · in range | NoForecast 20.4% |
| Emari Demercado | 0 | 8Forecast 5 (0–40) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 8.7% |
| Hunter Luepke | 0 | 1Forecast 0 (0–20) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 7.5% |
| KaVontae Turpin | 0 | 1 | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0Forecast 8 (0–35) · in range | NoForecast 9.9% |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0Forecast 8 (0–34) · in range | NoForecast 8.2% |
| Joe Milton IIINo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 0 (0–20) | — | — | —Forecast 4.8% |
| Player lines added up | 279 | 66 | 26 | 279 |
23 other Dallas Cowboys players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 2 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · AT&T Stadium
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Washington Commanders46.2% to winPregame projection
26–29
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Dallas Cowboys51.0% to winDallas Cowboys were the projected winner, 51.0% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
DAL +3
8 in 10 outcomes between -14 and +20
Expected total
55
8 in 10 outcomes between 38 and 72
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameWSH 26 — 29 DALwin chance WSH 46.2% · DAL 51.0%total 55 (38–72)margin +3
WSH
Likely TD scorers
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 40.7%
Stefon Diggs 40.4%
Terry McLaurin 25.4%
Passing
Jayden Daniels 179 pass yds (95–303)
Rushing leaders
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 41 rush yds (10–111)
Jayden Daniels 18 rush yds (2–70)
Receiving leaders
Stefon Diggs 6 rec · 66 yds
Terry McLaurin 4 rec · 39 yds
Antonio Williams 3 rec · 30 yds
DAL
Likely TD scorers
Javonte Williams 57.0%
CeeDee Lamb 35.0%
George Pickens 28.2%
Passing
Dak Prescott 209 pass yds (116–344)
Rushing leaders
Javonte Williams 55 rush yds (15–137)
Emari Demercado 5 rush yds (0–40)
Receiving leaders
CeeDee Lamb 5 rec · 53 yds
George Pickens 4 rec · 47 yds
Ryan Flournoy 3 rec · 28 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
51.0%
DAL to win
Sportsbook win chance
65.1%
DAL to win, read from 5 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-14.1 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
55 vs 51
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 24 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | WSH | 6 (2–12) | 66 (27–129) | 40.4% | |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 5 (1–10) | 53 (20–109) | 35.0% | |
| George Pickens | DAL | 4 (1–8) | 47 (16–103) | 28.2% | |
| Terry McLaurin | WSH | 4 (1–8) | 39 (12–89) | 25.4% | |
| Antonio Williams | WSH | 3 (1–6) | 30 (6–74) | 21.8% | |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL | 3 (1–6) | 28 (5–69) | 20.4% | |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | 2 (0–5) | 21 (3–54) | 57.0% | |
| Treylon Burks | WSH | 2 (0–6) | 26 (4–65) | 19.2% | |
| Jeremy McNichols | WSH | 2 (0–4) | 14 (0–45) | 17.8% | |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | 2 (0–5) | 19 (0–51) | 16.1% | |
| Rachaad White | WSH | 1 (0–4) | 11 (0–37) | 24.3% | |
| John Bates | WSH | 1 (0–4) | 12 (0–40) | 10.7% | |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–35) | 9.9% | |
| Luke McCaffrey | WSH | 1 (0–3) | 10 (0–39) | 9.7% | |
| Dyami Brown | WSH | 1 (0–3) | 10 (0–38) | 9.7% | |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | DAL | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–34) | 8.2% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 24 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 57.0% Javonte Williams · DAL
- 40.7% Jacory Croskey-Merritt · WSH
- 40.4% Stefon Diggs · WSH
- 35.0% CeeDee Lamb · DAL
- 28.2% George Pickens · DAL
- 25.4% Terry McLaurin · WSH
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 96453180642e3d77
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
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- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET