PHI @ TEN
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans, Sun, Sep 20. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · final
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was PHI 24 – 20 TEN, from the Week 2 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: PHI 24 – 20 TEN
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 20, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Philadelphia Eagles · 24
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 264Forecast 210 (113–352) · in range | 16Forecast 18 (2–70) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 17.7% |
| DeVonta Smith | 0 | 0 | 10Forecast 5 (1–10) · in range | 117Forecast 54 (20–113) · outside range | YesForecast 32.2% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 74Forecast 40 (11–92) · in range | NoForecast 30.2% |
| Tank Bigsby | 0 | 33Forecast 8 (0–46) · in range | 2 | 5 | YesForecast 11.7% |
| Will Shipley | 0 | 24Forecast 0 (0–18) · outside range | 2 | 5 | NoForecast 9.6% |
| Darius Cooper | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 | Yes |
| Saquon Barkley | 0 | 9Forecast 64 (19–155) · outside range | 1Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 11Forecast 16 (0–47) · in range | NoForecast 43.8% |
| Hollywood Brown | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Makai Lemon | 0 | -5 | 1Forecast 3 (1–8) · in range | 14Forecast 32 (9–73) · in range | NoForecast 25.5% |
| Johnny Mundt | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | No |
| Dallas Goedert | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 4Forecast 49 (17–103) · outside range | NoForecast 43.2% |
| Tanner McKeeNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 72 (28–149) | —Forecast 1 (0–24) | — | — | —Forecast 5.7% |
| Player lines added up | 264 | 89 | 26 | 264 |
18 other Philadelphia Eagles players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Tennessee Titans · 20
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 183Forecast 168 (90–281) · in range | 7Forecast 11 (0–53) · in range | 0 | 0 | YesForecast 12.6% |
| Tyjae Spears | 0 | 41Forecast 14 (1–58) · in range | 2Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 29Forecast 25 (6–61) · in range | NoForecast 28.3% |
| Elic Ayomanor | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 2 (0–6) · in range | 69Forecast 26 (4–67) · outside range | NoForecast 22.1% |
| Tony Pollard | 0 | 64Forecast 53 (14–137) · in range | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 1Forecast 11 (0–37) · in range | NoForecast 36.4% |
| Calvin Ridley | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 35Forecast 13 (0–45) · in range | NoForecast 9.8% |
| Carnell Tate | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 27Forecast 44 (15–94) · in range | NoForecast 25.2% |
| Gunnar Helm | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 13Forecast 28 (6–66) · in range | NoForecast 17.6% |
| Nicholas Singleton | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 4 (1–9) · in range | 9Forecast 43 (15–92) · outside range | NoForecast 23.9% |
| Chimere Dike | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 0Forecast 19 (0–53) · in range | NoForecast 14.9% |
| Xavier RestrepoNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 2 (0–4) | —Forecast 16 (0–48) | —Forecast 11.8% |
| Player lines added up | 183 | 122 | 13 | 183 |
24 other Tennessee Titans players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 2 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans
Philadelphia Eagles73.8% to winPregame projection
25–18
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Tennessee Titans23.8% to winPhiladelphia Eagles were the projected winner, 73.8% to win.
About 2% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
TEN -8
8 in 10 outcomes between -25 and +9
Expected total
43
8 in 10 outcomes between 26 and 61
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gamePHI 25 — 18 TENwin chance PHI 73.8% · TEN 23.8%total 43 (26–61)margin -8
PHI
Likely TD scorers
Saquon Barkley 43.8%
Dallas Goedert 43.2%
DeVonta Smith 32.2%
Passing
Jalen Hurts 210 pass yds (113–352)
Rushing leaders
Saquon Barkley 64 rush yds (19–155)
Jalen Hurts 18 rush yds (2–70)
Receiving leaders
DeVonta Smith 5 rec · 54 yds
Dallas Goedert 4 rec · 49 yds
Dontayvion Wicks 3 rec · 40 yds
TEN
Likely TD scorers
Tony Pollard 36.4%
Tyjae Spears 28.3%
Carnell Tate 25.2%
Passing
Cam Ward 168 pass yds (90–281)
Rushing leaders
Tony Pollard 53 rush yds (14–137)
Tyjae Spears 14 rush yds (1–58)
Receiving leaders
Carnell Tate 4 rec · 44 yds
Wan'Dale Robinson 4 rec · 43 yds
Tyjae Spears 3 rec · 25 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
23.8%
TEN to win
Sportsbook win chance
25.6%
TEN to win, read from 9 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-1.8 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
43 vs 39.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 19 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | 5 (1–10) | 54 (20–113) | 32.2% | |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | 4 (1–9) | 49 (17–103) | 43.2% | |
| Carnell Tate | TEN | 4 (1–9) | 44 (15–94) | 25.2% | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN | 4 (1–9) | 43 (15–92) | 23.9% | |
| Dontayvion Wicks | PHI | 3 (1–7) | 40 (11–92) | 30.2% | |
| Tyjae Spears | TEN | 3 (1–6) | 25 (6–61) | 28.3% | |
| Makai Lemon | PHI | 3 (1–8) | 32 (9–73) | 25.5% | |
| Gunnar Helm | TEN | 3 (1–6) | 28 (6–66) | 17.6% | |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | 2 (0–4) | 16 (0–47) | 43.8% | |
| Elic Ayomanor | TEN | 2 (0–6) | 26 (4–67) | 22.1% | |
| Chimere Dike | TEN | 2 (0–5) | 19 (0–53) | 14.9% | |
| Xavier Restrepo | TEN | 2 (0–4) | 16 (0–48) | 11.8% | |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | 1 (0–3) | 11 (0–37) | 36.4% | |
| Calvin Ridley | TEN | 1 (0–3) | 13 (0–45) | 9.8% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 19 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 43.8% Saquon Barkley · PHI
- 43.2% Dallas Goedert · PHI
- 36.4% Tony Pollard · TEN
- 32.2% DeVonta Smith · PHI
- 30.2% Dontayvion Wicks · PHI
- 28.3% Tyjae Spears · TEN
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 5ee2b5ef54cfc515
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ PITSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET