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Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET

Green Bay PackersatNew York JetsEXPERIMENTAL

MetLife Stadium

Green Bay PackersNew York JetsSaved on this device

68°F · 12 mph wind from the S · 83% chance of rain · showers and thunderstorms — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.

Simulation story

5 chapters · read from the published artifact

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GB @ NYJ

Green Bay Packers at New York Jets at MetLife Stadium.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

GB 24 — 22 NYJ

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

GB 58.6% · NYJ 38.2%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 3.2%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 29 and 63

NYJ winning margin

-3

a minus means GB wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -19 and 14

Model details

From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Generated 2026-09-17T14:17:00Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

GB 24 — 22 NYJwin chance GB 58.6% · NYJ 38.2%total 46 (29–63)margin -3

Likely TD scorers

Josh Jacobs 45.8% · available role uncertain

Christian Watson 38.2% · available role uncertain

MarShawn Lloyd 36.0% · available role uncertain

Passing

Jordan Love 233 pass yds (126–390) · available role uncertain

Rushing leaders

MarShawn Lloyd 49 rush yds (14–122) · available role uncertain

Josh Jacobs 49 rush yds (13–123) · available role uncertain

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Tyrod Taylor 129.8 pass yds/g at NYJ

Jonnu Smith 2.2 rec · 12.3 yds/g at PIT

Receiving leaders

Christian Watson 4 rec · 55 yds · available role uncertain

Matthew Golden 4 rec · 45 yds · available role uncertain

Tucker Kraft 3 rec · 39 yds · available role uncertain

NYJ

Likely TD scorers

Breece Hall 46.1% · available role uncertain

Garrett Wilson 33.7% · available role uncertain

Braelon Allen 20.3% · available role uncertain

Passing

Geno Smith 220 pass yds (121–361) · available role uncertain

Rushing leaders

Breece Hall 59 rush yds (17–143) · available role uncertain

Braelon Allen 16 rush yds (2–63) · available role uncertain

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Sterling Shepard 3 rec · 29.9 yds/g at TB

Geno Smith 173.4 pass yds/g at LV

Receiving leaders

Garrett Wilson 6 rec · 70 yds · available role uncertain

Adonai Mitchell 3 rec · 36 yds · available role uncertain

Kenyon Sadiq 3 rec · 25 yds · available role uncertain

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Green Bay Packers	13	24	36
New York Jets	10	22	34

Exact score

The likeliest final scores

from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above

Score (GB – NYJ)	Chance
20–17	0.80%
23–20	0.68%
17–20	0.67%
24–27	0.64%
20–23	0.63%
27–24	0.60%

No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.

Key numbers

How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14

football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you

Margin	This game	Last 3 regular seasons
Decided by exactly 3	10.4%	14.2%
Decided by exactly 7	7.0%	8.3%
Decided by exactly 10	5.4%	4.2%
Decided by exactly 14	4.7%	4.4%
Any of the four	27.5%	31.1%

The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.

GB touchdowns

2.6

NYJ touchdowns

2.5

GB field goals

1.8

NYJ field goals

1.7

Tied after regulation

3.9%

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

No current sportsbook capture covers this game.

Player projections · 22 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.

Player	Team	Availability	Receptions (10th–90th)	Rec yards (10th–90th)	TD chance
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	role uncertain	6 (2–13)	70 (30–135)	33.7%
Christian Watson	GB	role uncertain	4 (1–8)	55 (18–119)	38.2%
Matthew Golden	GB	role uncertain	4 (1–8)	45 (14–99)	26.5%
Tucker Kraft	GB	role uncertain	3 (1–7)	39 (11–90)	26.1%
Jayden Reed	GB	role uncertain	3 (1–6)	28 (6–69)	21.9%
Adonai Mitchell	NYJ	role uncertain	3 (1–7)	36 (10–85)	20.0%
Kenyon Sadiq	NYJ	role uncertain	3 (0–6)	25 (4–64)	17.9%
Mason Taylor	NYJ	role uncertain	3 (1–7)	28 (7–66)	17.5%
Breece Hall	NYJ	role uncertain	2 (0–4)	16 (0–47)	46.1%
Josh Jacobs	GB	role uncertain	2 (0–4)	15 (0–45)	45.8%
Drake Dabney	GB	role uncertain	2 (0–5)	21 (0–56)	16.3%
Isaiah Williams	NYJ	role uncertain	2 (0–5)	17 (0–49)	11.7%
Isaiah Davis	NYJ	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	8 (0–34)	16.3%
Jonnu Smith	GB	role uncertain	1 (0–4)	13 (0–44)	11.2%
Luke Musgrave	GB	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	11 (0–40)	10.0%
Jeremy Ruckert	NYJ	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	7 (0–32)	6.8%

New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above

Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.

Player	Team	Availability	Last club	Per game (prior club)
Sterling Shepard WR	NYJ	active uncertain	TB · 14g	3 rec · 29.9 yds
Geno Smith QB	NYJ	active uncertain	LV · 18g	6.1 rush yds · 173.4 pass yds
Tyrod Taylor QB	GB	active uncertain	NYJ · 6g	23.8 rush yds · 129.8 pass yds
Jonnu Smith TE	GB	active uncertain	PIT · 18g	2.2 rec · 12.3 yds

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 22 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

46.1% Breece Hall · NYJ · available role uncertain
45.8% Josh Jacobs · GB · available role uncertain
38.2% Christian Watson · GB · available role uncertain
36.0% MarShawn Lloyd · GB · available role uncertain
33.7% Garrett Wilson · NYJ · available role uncertain
26.5% Matthew Golden · GB · available role uncertain

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations: 10,000
input hash: d6b9252cd643c4e6
generated: 2026-09-17T14:17:00Z
kickoff: 2026-09-20T17:00Z
state: UPCOMING

Player-family model provenance (4 published)

Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.