GB @ NYJ
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets, Sun, Sep 20. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · final
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was GB 20 – 17 NYJ, from the Week 2 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: GB 20 – 17 NYJ
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 20, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Green Bay Packers · 20
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 145Forecast 233 (126–390) · in range | 0Forecast 1 (0–24) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 5.2% |
| Matthew Golden | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 58Forecast 45 (14–99) · in range | NoForecast 26.5% |
| Christian Watson | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 41Forecast 55 (18–119) · in range | YesForecast 38.2% |
| Kaleb Johnson | 0 | 32 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Chris Brooks | 0 | 11Forecast 13 (1–57) · in range | 1 | 15 | NoForecast 16.5% |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 0 | 20Forecast 49 (14–122) · in range | 2 | 6 | YesForecast 36.0% |
| Tucker Kraft | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 15Forecast 39 (11–90) · in range | NoForecast 26.1% |
| Skyy Moore | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | No |
| Jayden Reed | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 4Forecast 28 (6–69) · outside range | NoForecast 21.9% |
| Drake DabneyNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 2 (0–5) | —Forecast 21 (0–56) | —Forecast 16.3% |
| Jonnu SmithNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–4) | —Forecast 13 (0–44) | —Forecast 11.2% |
| Josh JacobsNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 49 (13–123) | —Forecast 2 (0–4) | —Forecast 15 (0–45) | —Forecast 45.8% |
| Luke MusgraveNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 11 (0–40) | —Forecast 10.0% |
| Player lines added up | 145 | 63 | 16 | 145 |
23 other Green Bay Packers players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
New York Jets · 17
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 247Forecast 220 (121–361) · in range | 17Forecast 8 (0–40) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 11.6% |
| Breece Hall | 0 | 29Forecast 59 (17–143) · in range | 5Forecast 2 (0–4) · outside range | 63Forecast 16 (0–47) · outside range | NoForecast 46.1% |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0 | 0 | 6Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 63Forecast 36 (10–85) · in range | NoForecast 20.0% |
| Garrett Wilson | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 6 (2–13) · in range | 57Forecast 70 (30–135) · in range | YesForecast 33.7% |
| Isaiah Williams | 0 | 14 | 6Forecast 2 (0–5) · outside range | 34Forecast 17 (0–49) · in range | NoForecast 11.7% |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (0–6) · in range | 17Forecast 25 (4–64) · in range | NoForecast 17.9% |
| Braelon Allen | 0 | 7Forecast 16 (2–63) · in range | 1 | 8 | YesForecast 20.3% |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 5Forecast 7 (0–32) · in range | NoForecast 6.8% |
| Isaiah Davis | 0 | 0Forecast 7 (0–43) · in range | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0Forecast 8 (0–34) · in range | NoForecast 16.3% |
| Mason TaylorNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 3 (1–7) | —Forecast 28 (7–66) | —Forecast 17.5% |
| Player lines added up | 247 | 67 | 27 | 247 |
22 other New York Jets players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 2 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 2 · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets
Green Bay Packers58.7% to winPregame projection
24–22
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
New York Jets38.3% to winGreen Bay Packers were the projected winner, 58.7% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
NYJ -2
8 in 10 outcomes between -19 and +14
Expected total
46
8 in 10 outcomes between 29 and 63
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameGB 24 — 22 NYJwin chance GB 58.7% · NYJ 38.3%total 46 (29–63)margin -2
GB
Likely TD scorers
Josh Jacobs 45.8%
Christian Watson 38.2%
MarShawn Lloyd 36.0%
Passing
Jordan Love 233 pass yds (126–390)
Rushing leaders
MarShawn Lloyd 49 rush yds (14–122)
Josh Jacobs 49 rush yds (13–123)
Receiving leaders
Christian Watson 4 rec · 55 yds
Matthew Golden 4 rec · 45 yds
Tucker Kraft 3 rec · 39 yds
NYJ
Likely TD scorers
Breece Hall 46.1%
Garrett Wilson 33.7%
Braelon Allen 20.3%
Passing
Geno Smith 220 pass yds (121–361)
Rushing leaders
Breece Hall 59 rush yds (17–143)
Braelon Allen 16 rush yds (2–63)
Receiving leaders
Garrett Wilson 6 rec · 70 yds
Adonai Mitchell 3 rec · 36 yds
Kenyon Sadiq 3 rec · 25 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
38.3%
NYJ to win
Sportsbook win chance
38.4%
NYJ to win, read from 9 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-0.1 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
46 vs 44
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 21 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | 6 (2–13) | 70 (30–135) | 33.7% | |
| Christian Watson | GB | 4 (1–8) | 55 (18–119) | 38.2% | |
| Matthew Golden | GB | 4 (1–8) | 45 (14–99) | 26.5% | |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | 3 (1–7) | 39 (11–90) | 26.1% | |
| Jayden Reed | GB | 3 (1–6) | 28 (6–69) | 21.9% | |
| Adonai Mitchell | NYJ | 3 (1–7) | 36 (10–85) | 20.0% | |
| Kenyon Sadiq | NYJ | 3 (0–6) | 25 (4–64) | 17.9% | |
| Mason Taylor | NYJ | 3 (1–7) | 28 (7–66) | 17.5% | |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | 2 (0–4) | 16 (0–47) | 46.1% | |
| Josh Jacobs | GB | 2 (0–4) | 15 (0–45) | 45.8% | |
| Drake Dabney | GB | 2 (0–5) | 21 (0–56) | 16.3% | |
| Isaiah Williams | NYJ | 2 (0–5) | 17 (0–49) | 11.7% | |
| Isaiah Davis | NYJ | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–34) | 16.3% | |
| Jonnu Smith | GB | 1 (0–4) | 13 (0–44) | 11.2% | |
| Luke Musgrave | GB | 1 (0–3) | 11 (0–40) | 10.0% | |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ | 1 (0–3) | 7 (0–32) | 6.8% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 21 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 46.1% Breece Hall · NYJ
- 45.8% Josh Jacobs · GB
- 38.2% Christian Watson · GB
- 36.0% MarShawn Lloyd · GB
- 33.7% Garrett Wilson · NYJ
- 26.5% Matthew Golden · GB
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- ef8b5faed8572350
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (0 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
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