DEN @ KC
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, Mon, Sep 14. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Monday, Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET · final
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was DEN 10 – 31 KC, from the Week 1 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: DEN 10 – 31 KC
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 15, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Denver Broncos · 10
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 131Forecast 161 (56–270) · in range | 2Forecast 16 (1–46) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 19.3% |
| Evan Engram | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 43Forecast 16 (0–51) · in range | Yes |
| Pat Bryant | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 42Forecast 15 (0–51) · in range | No |
| RJ Harvey | 0 | 18Forecast 27 (7–61) · in range | 4Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 23Forecast 19 (0–55) · in range | NoForecast 30.1% |
| J.K. Dobbins | 0 | 36Forecast 46 (16–94) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 15.8% |
| Courtland Sutton | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 11Forecast 32 (4–77) · in range | NoForecast 33.9% |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | No |
| Troy Franklin | 0 | 5 | 0Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 0Forecast 21 (0–60) · in range | NoForecast 17.3% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | No |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 0Forecast 19 (0–59) · in range | NoForecast 11.4% |
| Nate Adkins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 16.3% |
| Jarrett StidhamNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 1 (0–19) | — | — | — |
| Player lines added up | 131 | 61 | 17 | 131 |
25 other Denver Broncos players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Kansas City Chiefs · 31
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 184Forecast 167 (55–286) · in range | 23Forecast 9 (0–39) · in range | 0 | 0 | YesForecast 27.0% |
| Kenneth Walker III | 0 | 173 | 3 | 18 | Yes |
| Travis Kelce | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 71Forecast 34 (7–80) · in range | NoForecast 15.0% |
| Emmett Johnson | 0 | 24 | 2 | 44 | No |
| Rashee Rice | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 5 (2–8) · in range | 19Forecast 47 (12–100) · in range | YesForecast 22.5% |
| Xavier Worthy | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 18Forecast 23 (0–63) · in range | NoForecast 6.7% |
| Jake Briningstool | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | No |
| Noah Gray | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 5Forecast 11 (0–43) · in range | No |
| Tyquan Thornton | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0Forecast 7 (0–41) · in range | NoForecast 10.1% |
| Brashard SmithNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 6 (0–29) | —Forecast 1 (0–3) | —Forecast 8 (0–38) | —Forecast 23.2% |
| Player lines added up | 184 | 220 | 15 | 184 |
28 other Kansas City Chiefs players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 1 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 1 · Monday, Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET · Arrowhead Stadium
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos59.9% to winPregame projection
21–20
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Kansas City Chiefs37.0% to winDenver Broncos were the projected winner, 59.9% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
KC -1
8 in 10 outcomes between -17 and +16
Expected total
41
8 in 10 outcomes between 24 and 58
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameDEN 21 — 20 KCwin chance DEN 59.9% · KC 37.0%total 41 (24–58)margin -1
DEN
Likely TD scorers
Courtland Sutton 33.9%
RJ Harvey 30.1%
Bo Nix 19.3%
Passing
Bo Nix 161 pass yds (56–270)
Rushing leaders
J.K. Dobbins 46 rush yds (16–94)
RJ Harvey 27 rush yds (7–61)
Receiving leaders
Courtland Sutton 3 rec · 32 yds
RJ Harvey 2 rec · 19 yds
Troy Franklin 2 rec · 21 yds
KC
Likely TD scorers
Patrick Mahomes 27.0%
Brashard Smith 23.2%
Rashee Rice 22.5%
Passing
Patrick Mahomes 167 pass yds (55–286)
Rushing leaders
Patrick Mahomes 9 rush yds (0–39)
Brashard Smith 6 rush yds (0–29)
Receiving leaders
Rashee Rice 5 rec · 47 yds
Travis Kelce 3 rec · 34 yds
Xavier Worthy 2 rec · 23 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
37.0%
KC to win
Sportsbook win chance
54.3%
KC to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-17.3 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
41 vs 42.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 17 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | KC | projected active | 5 (2–8) | 47 (12–100) | 22.5% |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 32 (4–77) | 33.9% |
| Travis Kelce | KC | projected active | 3 (1–7) | 34 (7–80) | 15.0% |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 19 (0–55) | 30.1% |
| Troy Franklin | DEN | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 21 (0–60) | 17.3% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 19 (0–59) | 11.4% |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 23 (0–63) | 6.7% |
| Evan Engram | DEN | 2 (0–4) | 16 (0–51) | — | |
| Pat Bryant | DEN | 2 (0–4) | 15 (0–51) | — | |
| Brashard Smith | KC | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–38) | 23.2% |
| Tyquan Thornton | KC | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 7 (0–41) | 10.1% |
| Noah Gray | KC | 1 (0–3) | 11 (0–43) | — |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 13 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 33.9% Courtland Sutton · DEN
- 30.1% RJ Harvey · DEN
- 27.0% Patrick Mahomes · KC
- 23.2% Brashard Smith · KC
- 22.5% Rashee Rice · KC
- 19.3% Bo Nix · DEN
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 15b68be73f44f514
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ PITSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET