Today· Sep 17Pregame slateSettled· Sep 16

Regular season · week 1 · Monday, Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET · started

Denver BroncosatKansas City ChiefsEXPERIMENTAL

Arrowhead Stadium

Denver BroncosKansas City ChiefsSaved on this device

Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was DEN 10 – 31 KC, from the Week 1 record.

Simulation story

5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start

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› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

DEN @ KC

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, 2026-09-15. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

DEN 21 — 20 KC

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

DEN 59.9% · KC 37.0%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 3.1%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 24 and 58

KC winning margin

-1

a minus means DEN wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -17 and 16

Model details

From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to beat the market is made. Generated 2026-09-14T23:42:04Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

DEN 21 — 20 KCwin chance DEN 59.9% · KC 37.0%total 41 (24–58)margin -1

DEN

Likely TD scorers

Courtland Sutton 33.9%

RJ Harvey 30.1%

Bo Nix 19.3%

Passing

Bo Nix 161 pass yds (56–270)

Rushing leaders

J.K. Dobbins 46 rush yds (16–94)

RJ Harvey 27 rush yds (7–61)

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Jaylen Waddle 3.8 rec · 54 yds/g at MIA

Receiving leaders

Courtland Sutton 3 rec · 32 yds

RJ Harvey 2 rec · 19 yds

Troy Franklin 2 rec · 21 yds

Likely TD scorers

Patrick Mahomes 27.0%

Brashard Smith 23.2%

Rashee Rice 22.5%

Passing

Patrick Mahomes 167 pass yds (55–286)

Rushing leaders

Patrick Mahomes 9 rush yds (0–39)

Brashard Smith 6 rush yds (0–29)

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Kenneth Walker III 2 rec · 19.3 yds/g at SEA

Justin Fields 0 rec · 0 yds/g at NYJ

Receiving leaders

Rashee Rice 5 rec · 47 yds

Travis Kelce 3 rec · 34 yds

Xavier Worthy 2 rec · 23 yds

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Denver Broncos	9	21	33
Kansas City Chiefs	8	20	32

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

Our win chance

37.0%

KC to win

Sportsbook win chance

54.3%

KC to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed

Difference

-17.3 pp

ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation

Total points: ours vs sportsbooks

41 vs 42.5

our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line

The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.

Prices captured 2026-09-14T23:42:04Z — before kickoff.

Player projections · 17 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.

Player	Team	Availability	Receptions (10th–90th)	Rec yards (10th–90th)	TD chance
Rashee Rice	KC	projected active	5 (2–8)	47 (12–100)	22.5%
Courtland Sutton	DEN	projected active	3 (1–6)	32 (4–77)	33.9%
Travis Kelce	KC	projected active	3 (1–7)	34 (7–80)	15.0%
RJ Harvey	DEN	projected active	2 (0–5)	19 (0–55)	30.1%
Troy Franklin	DEN	projected active	2 (0–5)	21 (0–60)	17.3%
Marvin Mims Jr.	DEN	projected active	2 (0–5)	19 (0–59)	11.4%
Xavier Worthy	KC	projected active	2 (0–5)	23 (0–63)	6.7%
Evan Engram	DEN	role uncertain	2 (0–4)	16 (0–51)	—
Pat Bryant	DEN	role uncertain	2 (0–4)	15 (0–51)	—
Brashard Smith	KC	projected active	1 (0–3)	8 (0–38)	23.2%
Tyquan Thornton	KC	projected active	1 (0–3)	7 (0–41)	10.1%
Noah Gray	KC	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	11 (0–43)	—

New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above

Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.

Player	Team	Availability	Last club	Per game (prior club)
Kenneth Walker III RB	KC	active uncertain	SEA · 20g	2 rec · 19.3 yds · 67 rush yds
Justin Fields QB	KC	active uncertain	NYJ · 11g	0 rec · 0 yds · 36.5 rush yds · 118.6 pass yds
Jaylen Waddle WR	DEN	active uncertain	MIA · 17g	3.8 rec · 54 yds

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 13 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

33.9% Courtland Sutton · DEN
30.1% RJ Harvey · DEN
27.0% Patrick Mahomes · KC
23.2% Brashard Smith · KC
22.5% Rashee Rice · KC
19.3% Bo Nix · DEN

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations: 10,000
input hash: 15b68be73f44f514
generated: 2026-09-14T23:42:04Z
kickoff: 2026-09-15T00:15Z
state: SETTLED

Player-family model provenance (3 published)

Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.