Today· Sep 17Pregame slateSettled· Sep 16

Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ET · started

Green Bay PackersatMinnesota VikingsEXPERIMENTAL

U.S. Bank Stadium

Green Bay PackersMinnesota VikingsSaved on this device

Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was GB 22 – 39 MIN, from the Week 1 record.

Simulation story

5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start

Skip to the report ↓

› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

GB @ MIN

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, 2026-09-13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

GB 20 — 25 MIN

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

GB 39.9% · MIN 57.3%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.8%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 28 and 62

MIN winning margin

a minus means GB wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -13 and 22

Model details

From the replay-validated Elo-logistic head, published exactly as evaluated on a held-out 2025 season — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to beat the market is made. Generated 2026-09-13T18:02:15Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

GB 20 — 25 MINwin chance GB 39.9% · MIN 57.3%total 45 (28–62)margin +5

Likely TD scorers

Tucker Kraft 24.6%

Christian Watson 22.5%

Jayden Reed 13.3%

Passing

Jordan Love 165 pass yds (50–294) · available role uncertain

Rushing leaders

Jordan Love 2 rush yds (0–22) · available role uncertain

Chris Brooks 2 rush yds (0–22) · available role uncertain

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Tyrod Taylor 129.8 pass yds/g at NYJ

Jonnu Smith 2.2 rec · 12.3 yds/g at PIT

Receiving leaders

Tucker Kraft 3 rec · 30 yds

Christian Watson 3 rec · 35 yds

Jayden Reed 2 rec · 24 yds

MIN

Likely TD scorers

J.J. McCarthy 34.4%

Jordan Addison 26.6%

Aaron Jones Sr. 24.8%

Passing

J.J. McCarthy 76 pass yds (1–205)

Rushing leaders

Aaron Jones Sr. 41 rush yds (14–82)

Jordan Mason 29 rush yds (6–69)

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Jauan Jennings 3.4 rec · 41.8 yds/g at SF

Kyler Murray 176.3 pass yds/g at ARI

Receiving leaders

Justin Jefferson 5 rec · 49 yds

Jordan Addison 2 rec · 22 yds

Aaron Jones Sr. 2 rec · 21 yds

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Green Bay Packers	8	20	32
Minnesota Vikings	12	25	37

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

Our win chance

57.3%

MIN to win

Sportsbook win chance

54.5%

MIN to win, read from 11 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed

Difference

+2.9 pp

ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation

Total points: ours vs sportsbooks

45 vs 46

our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line

The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.

Prices captured 2026-09-13T17:35:06Z — before kickoff.

Player projections · 17 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.

Player	Team	Availability	Receptions (10th–90th)	Rec yards (10th–90th)	TD chance
Justin Jefferson	MIN	projected active	5 (2–8)	49 (13–103)	9.6%
Tucker Kraft	GB	projected active	3 (1–6)	30 (2–79)	24.6%
Christian Watson	GB	projected active	3 (1–6)	35 (5–87)	22.5%
Jordan Addison	MIN	projected active	2 (0–5)	22 (0–64)	26.6%
Aaron Jones Sr.	MIN	projected active	2 (0–5)	21 (0–58)	24.8%
T.J. Hockenson	MIN	projected active	2 (0–5)	22 (0–62)	14.9%
Jayden Reed	GB	projected active	2 (1–5)	24 (0–66)	13.3%
Matthew Golden	GB	projected active	2 (0–4.1)	19 (0–59)	8.8%
Josh Oliver	MIN	projected active	1 (0–3)	7 (0–38)	15.6%
Drake Dabney	GB	role uncertain	1 (0–3)	11 (0–44)	—

New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above

Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.

Player	Team	Availability	Last club	Per game (prior club)
Jauan Jennings WR	MIN	active uncertain	SF · 17g	3.4 rec · 41.8 yds
Kyler Murray QB	MIN	active uncertain	ARI · 6g	30.3 rush yds · 176.3 pass yds
Tyrod Taylor QB	GB	active uncertain	NYJ · 6g	23.8 rush yds · 129.8 pass yds
Jonnu Smith TE	GB	active uncertain	PIT · 18g	2.2 rec · 12.3 yds

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 13 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

34.4% J.J. McCarthy · MIN
26.6% Jordan Addison · MIN
24.8% Aaron Jones Sr. · MIN
24.6% Tucker Kraft · GB
23.3% Jordan Mason · MIN
22.5% Christian Watson · GB

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
simulations: 10,000
input hash: 3e92c62eebf90ed5
generated: 2026-09-13T18:02:15Z
kickoff: 2026-09-13T20:25Z
state: SETTLED

Player-family model provenance (3 published)

Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.