TB @ CIN
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals, Sun, Sep 13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was TB 27 – 33 CIN, from the Week 1 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: TB 27 – 33 CIN
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 14, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 27
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 216Forecast 168 (54–288) · in range | 30Forecast 6 (0–32) · in range | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Bucky Irving | 0 | 45Forecast 41 (14–81) · in range | 7Forecast 1 (0–4) · outside range | 48Forecast 12 (0–45) · outside range | YesForecast 21.4% |
| Emeka Egbuka | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 63Forecast 30 (4–76) · in range | NoForecast 9.5% |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 0 | 3 | 4Forecast 3 (1–5) · in range | 40Forecast 26 (2–67) · in range | NoForecast 19.9% |
| Ted Hurst III | 0 | 0 | 3 | 36 | No |
| Cade Otton | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 26Forecast 29 (4–75) · in range | NoForecast 24.8% |
| Kenny Gainwell | 0 | 15 | 1 | 3 | No |
| Josiah Trotter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Jalen McMillanNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 2 (0–4) | —Forecast 15 (0–52) | —Forecast 8.6% |
| Sean TuckerNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 10 (0–36) | — | — | —Forecast 29.1% |
| Tristan WirfsNo line in the official box score | — | — | — | — | —Forecast 23.1% |
| Tez Johnson | 0 | -4 | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0Forecast 8 (0–39) · in range | NoForecast 22.6% |
| Player lines added up | 216 | 89 | 23 | 216 |
22 other Tampa Bay Buccaneers players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Cincinnati Bengals · 33
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 254Forecast 148 (40–271) · in range | 20 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Chase Brown | 0 | 56Forecast 49 (18–99) · in range | 5Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 22Forecast 19 (0–55) · in range | YesForecast 35.4% |
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 1 (0–4) · outside range | 78Forecast 11 (0–45) · outside range | YesForecast 11.8% |
| Tee Higgins | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 59Forecast 30 (3–76) · in range | NoForecast 37.8% |
| Samaje Perine | 0 | 20Forecast 19 (2–52) · in range | 3 | 30 | NoForecast 14.4% |
| Dohnte Meyers | 0 | 10 | 1 | 18 | No |
| Drew Sample | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | NoForecast 12.0% |
| Andrei Iosivas | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 12Forecast 12 (0–46) · in range | NoForecast 13.8% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 5 (2–9) · in range | 12Forecast 53 (16–109) · outside range | NoForecast 29.0% |
| Tanner Hudson | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | NoForecast 16.6% |
| Demetrius Knight Jr. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| Tahj Brooks | 0 | 0Forecast 1 (0–18) · in range | 0 | 0 | No |
| Joe FlaccoNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 56 (0–184) | — | — | — | — |
| Player lines added up | 254 | 106 | 25 | 254 |
19 other Cincinnati Bengals players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 1 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Paycor Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers43.7% to winPregame projection
24–26
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Cincinnati Bengals53.3% to winCincinnati Bengals were the projected winner, 53.3% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
CIN +2
8 in 10 outcomes between -15 and +20
Expected total
50
8 in 10 outcomes between 33 and 67
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameTB 24 — 26 CINwin chance TB 43.7% · CIN 53.3%total 50 (33–67)margin +2
TB
Likely TD scorers
Cade Otton 24.8%
Tristan Wirfs 23.1%
Tez Johnson 22.6%
Passing
Baker Mayfield 168 pass yds (54–288)
Rushing leaders
Bucky Irving 41 rush yds (14–81)
Baker Mayfield 6 rush yds (0–32)
Receiving leaders
Cade Otton 3 rec · 29 yds
Chris Godwin Jr. 3 rec · 26 yds
Emeka Egbuka 3 rec · 30 yds
CIN
Likely TD scorers
Tee Higgins 37.8%
Chase Brown 35.4%
Ja'Marr Chase 29.0%
Passing
Joe Burrow 148 pass yds (40–271)
Rushing leaders
Chase Brown 49 rush yds (18–99)
Samaje Perine 19 rush yds (2–52)
Receiving leaders
Ja'Marr Chase 5 rec · 53 yds
Tee Higgins 3 rec · 30 yds
Chase Brown 2 rec · 19 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
53.3%
CIN to win
Sportsbook win chance
64.6%
CIN to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-11.3 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
50 vs 50.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 20 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | projected active | 5 (2–9) | 53 (16–109) | 29.0% |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 30 (3–76) | 37.8% |
| Cade Otton | TB | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 29 (4–75) | 24.8% |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | projected active | 3 (1–5) | 26 (2–67) | 19.9% |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 30 (4–76) | 9.5% |
| Chase Brown | CIN | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 19 (0–55) | 35.4% |
| Tez Johnson | TB | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 8 (0–39) | 22.6% |
| Bucky Irving | TB | projected active | 1 (0–4) | 12 (0–45) | 21.4% |
| Andrei Iosivas | CIN | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 12 (0–46) | 13.8% |
| Mike Gesicki | CIN | projected active | 1 (0–4) | 11 (0–45) | 11.8% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 14 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 37.8% Tee Higgins · CIN
- 35.4% Chase Brown · CIN
- 29.0% Ja'Marr Chase · CIN
- 24.8% Cade Otton · TB
- 23.1% Tristan Wirfs · TB
- 22.6% Tez Johnson · TB
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 1c2f53935efd9d5b
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ PITSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET