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Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · started

Tampa Bay BuccaneersatCincinnati BengalsEXPERIMENTAL

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Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was TB 27 – 33 CIN, from the Week 1 record.

Simulation story

5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start

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› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

TB @ CIN

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals, 2026-09-13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

TB 24 — 26 CIN

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

TB 43.7% · CIN 53.3%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 3.0%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 33 and 67

CIN winning margin

a minus means TB wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -15 and 20

Model details

From the replay-validated Elo-logistic head, published exactly as evaluated on a held-out 2025 season — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to beat the market is made. Generated 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

TB 24 — 26 CINwin chance TB 43.7% · CIN 53.3%total 50 (33–67)margin +2

Likely TD scorers

Sean Tucker 29.1% · questionable

Cade Otton 24.8%

Tristan Wirfs 23.1%

Passing

Baker Mayfield 168 pass yds (54–288) · available role uncertain

Rushing leaders

Bucky Irving 41 rush yds (14–81)

Sean Tucker 10 rush yds (0–36) · questionable

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Kenny Gainwell 3.9 rec · 25.7 yds/g at PIT

Receiving leaders

Cade Otton 3 rec · 29 yds

Chris Godwin Jr. 3 rec · 26 yds

Emeka Egbuka 3 rec · 30 yds

CIN

Likely TD scorers

Tee Higgins 37.8%

Chase Brown 35.4%

Ja'Marr Chase 29.0%

Passing

Joe Burrow 148 pass yds (40–271) · available role uncertain

Rushing leaders

Chase Brown 49 rush yds (18–99)

Samaje Perine 19 rush yds (2–52)

New arrivals · not in these numbers

Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.

Josh Johnson 108.5 pass yds/g at WSH

Receiving leaders

Ja'Marr Chase 5 rec · 53 yds

Tee Higgins 3 rec · 30 yds

Chase Brown 2 rec · 19 yds

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	11	24	36
Cincinnati Bengals	14	26	39

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

Our win chance

53.3%

CIN to win

Sportsbook win chance

64.6%

CIN to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed

Difference

-11.3 pp

ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation

Total points: ours vs sportsbooks

50 vs 50.5

our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line

The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.

Prices captured 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z — before kickoff.

Player projections · 20 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.

Player	Team	Availability	Receptions (10th–90th)	Rec yards (10th–90th)	TD chance
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	projected active	5 (2–9)	53 (16–109)	29.0%
Tee Higgins	CIN	projected active	3 (1–6)	30 (3–76)	37.8%
Cade Otton	TB	projected active	3 (1–6)	29 (4–75)	24.8%
Chris Godwin Jr.	TB	projected active	3 (1–5)	26 (2–67)	19.9%
Emeka Egbuka	TB	projected active	3 (1–6)	30 (4–76)	9.5%
Chase Brown	CIN	projected active	2 (0–5)	19 (0–55)	35.4%
Jalen McMillan	TB	questionable	2 (0–4)	15 (0–52)	8.6%
Tez Johnson	TB	projected active	1 (0–3)	8 (0–39)	22.6%
Bucky Irving	TB	projected active	1 (0–4)	12 (0–45)	21.4%
Andrei Iosivas	CIN	projected active	1 (0–3)	12 (0–46)	13.8%
Mike Gesicki	CIN	projected active	1 (0–4)	11 (0–45)	11.8%

New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above

Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.

Player	Team	Availability	Last club	Per game (prior club)
Josh Johnson QB	CIN	active uncertain	WSH · 6g	8.3 rush yds · 108.5 pass yds
Kenny Gainwell RB	TB	active uncertain	PIT · 20g	3.9 rec · 25.7 yds · 28.3 rush yds

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 16 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

37.8% Tee Higgins · CIN
35.4% Chase Brown · CIN
29.1% Sean Tucker · TB · questionable
29.0% Ja'Marr Chase · CIN
24.8% Cade Otton · TB
23.1% Tristan Wirfs · TB

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
simulations: 10,000
input hash: 1c2f53935efd9d5b
generated: 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z
kickoff: 2026-09-13T17:00Z
state: SETTLED

Player-family model provenance (3 published)

Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.