NO @ DET
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions, Sun, Sep 13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · final
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was NO 30 – 31 DET, from the Week 1 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: NO 30 – 31 DET
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 14, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
New Orleans Saints · 30
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 410Forecast 139 (28–270) · outside range | 8Forecast 8 (0–33) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 20.1% |
| Chris Olave | 0 | 0 | 10Forecast 5 (2–9) · outside range | 182Forecast 55 (16–110) · outside range | NoForecast 39.4% |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | 0 | 46 | 7 | 32 | No |
| Devaughn Vele | 0 | 0 | 7Forecast 2 (1–5) · outside range | 69Forecast 25 (0–68) · outside range | YesForecast 14.9% |
| Juwan Johnson | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 54Forecast 29 (3–75) · in range | YesForecast 13.4% |
| Bryce Lance | 0 | 0 | 3 | 42 | No |
| Noah Fant | 0 | 0 | 4 | 33 | Yes |
| Kendre Miller | 0 | 30Forecast 13 (0–42) · in range | 0 | 0 | YesForecast 11.2% |
| Barion Brown | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | No |
| CJ Donaldson | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | No |
| Alvin KamaraNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 27 (6–61) | —Forecast 2 (0–4) | —Forecast 15 (0–48) | —Forecast 10.2% |
| Kevin Austin Jr.No line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 2 (0–5) | —Forecast 19 (0–56) | —Forecast 10.9% |
| Spencer RattlerNo line in the official box score | —Forecast 83 (6–211) | —Forecast 5 (0–29) | — | — | — |
| Player lines added up | 410 | 91 | 35 | 410 |
24 other New Orleans Saints players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Detroit Lions · 31
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 206Forecast 177 (64–303) · in range | 2 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 0 | 156Forecast 56 (23–107) · outside range | 5Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 30Forecast 24 (1–63) · in range | YesForecast 52.6% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 0 | 0 | 10Forecast 5 (2–9) · outside range | 67Forecast 54 (16–112) · in range | YesForecast 24.6% |
| Sam LaPorta | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 48Forecast 28 (2–72) · in range | NoForecast 28.5% |
| Jameson Williams | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 45Forecast 34 (3–84) · in range | NoForecast 28.4% |
| Sione Vaki | 0 | 7 | 1 | 11 | No |
| Brock Wright | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 5Forecast 10 (0–42) · in range | NoForecast 13.9% |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 0Forecast 5 (0–37) · in range | NoForecast 41.9% |
| Player lines added up | 206 | 165 | 26 | 206 |
25 other Detroit Lions players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 1 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Ford Field
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
New Orleans Saints30.9% to winPregame projection
19–29
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Detroit Lions67.0% to winDetroit Lions were the projected winner, 67.0% to win.
About 2% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
DET +9
8 in 10 outcomes between -8 and +27
Expected total
48
8 in 10 outcomes between 31 and 65
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameNO 19 — 29 DETwin chance NO 30.9% · DET 67.0%total 48 (31–65)margin +9
NO
Likely TD scorers
Chris Olave 39.4%
Tyler Shough 20.1%
Devaughn Vele 14.9%
Passing
Tyler Shough 139 pass yds (28–270)
Rushing leaders
Kendre Miller 13 rush yds (0–42)
Tyler Shough 8 rush yds (0–33)
Receiving leaders
Chris Olave 5 rec · 55 yds
Juwan Johnson 3 rec · 29 yds
Devaughn Vele 2 rec · 25 yds
DET
Likely TD scorers
Jahmyr Gibbs 52.6%
Isaac TeSlaa 41.9%
Sam LaPorta 28.5%
Passing
Jared Goff 177 pass yds (64–303)
Rushing leaders
Jahmyr Gibbs 56 rush yds (23–107)
Receiving leaders
Amon-Ra St. Brown 5 rec · 54 yds
Jahmyr Gibbs 3 rec · 24 yds
Sam LaPorta 3 rec · 28 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
67.0%
DET to win
Sportsbook win chance
73.9%
DET to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-6.9 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
48 vs 50
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 15 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | NO | projected active | 5 (2–9) | 55 (16–110) | 39.4% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | projected active | 5 (2–9) | 54 (16–112) | 24.6% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 24 (1–63) | 52.6% |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 28 (2–72) | 28.5% |
| Jameson Williams | DET | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 34 (3–84) | 28.4% |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 29 (3–75) | 13.4% |
| Devaughn Vele | NO | projected active | 2 (1–5) | 25 (0–68) | 14.9% |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | NO | projected active | 2 (0–5) | 19 (0–56) | 10.9% |
| Isaac TeSlaa | DET | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 5 (0–37) | 41.9% |
| Brock Wright | DET | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 10 (0–42) | 13.9% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 12 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 52.6% Jahmyr Gibbs · DET
- 41.9% Isaac TeSlaa · DET
- 39.4% Chris Olave · NO
- 28.5% Sam LaPorta · DET
- 28.4% Jameson Williams · DET
- 24.6% Amon-Ra St. Brown · DET
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- b4e952464449e896
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ PITSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET