CHI @ CAR
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers, Sun, Sep 13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · final
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was CHI 59 – 37 CAR, from the Week 1 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: CHI 59 – 37 CAR
The played game's official lines, recorded Sep 14, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
Chicago Bears · 59
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 269Forecast 166 (60–282) · in range | 65Forecast 7 (0–34) · outside range | 0 | 0 | Yes |
| D'Andre Swift | 0 | 124Forecast 40 (11–83) · outside range | 1 | 10 | YesForecast 28.2% |
| Kyle Monangai | 0 | 100Forecast 26 (5–62) · outside range | 2Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 24Forecast 7 (0–36) · in range | YesForecast 14.5% |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 0 | 8 | 84 | No |
| Luther Burden III | 0 | 2 | 5Forecast 2 (1–5) · in range | 63Forecast 26 (0–70) · in range | NoForecast 8.0% |
| Rome Odunze | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 3 (1–6) · in range | 52Forecast 29 (2–76) · in range | NoForecast 13.3% |
| Cole Kmet | 0 | 0 | 2Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 35Forecast 10 (0–41) · in range | YesForecast 17.3% |
| Jahdae Walker | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | YesForecast 26.7% |
| Colston Loveland | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 4 (1–7) · outside range | 0Forecast 40 (8–90) · outside range | NoForecast 20.6% |
| Player lines added up | 269 | 291 | 21 | 269 |
24 other Chicago Bears players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Carolina Panthers · 37
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 361Forecast 161 (54–274) · outside range | 10Forecast 10 (0–36) · in range | 0 | 0 | YesForecast 24.8% |
| Jalen Coker | 0 | 0 | 8Forecast 3 (1–6) · outside range | 138Forecast 33 (5–81) · outside range | YesForecast 26.7% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 0 | 49Forecast 24 (4–60) · in range | 3Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 38Forecast 10 (0–41) · in range | YesForecast 23.8% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 75Forecast 39 (7–88) · in range | NoForecast 25.9% |
| Jonathon Brooks | 0 | 14 | 1 | 48 | No |
| AJ Dillon | 0 | 28 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Darren Waller | 0 | 0 | 2 | 28 | No |
| Tommy Tremble | 0 | 0 | 3Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 25Forecast 11 (0–43) · in range | NoForecast 15.2% |
| Kenny Pickett | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Mitchell Evans | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 9Forecast 6 (0–36) · in range | NoForecast 7.8% |
| Xavier Legette | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 2 (0–4) · in range | 0Forecast 15 (0–51) · in range | NoForecast 11.0% |
| Ja'Tavion SandersNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 1 (0–4) | —Forecast 11 (0–42) | —Forecast 16.0% |
| Player lines added up | 361 | 125 | 23 | 361 |
25 other Carolina Panthers players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 1 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Chicago Bears49.3% to winPregame projection
23–24
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Carolina Panthers47.9% to winChicago Bears were the projected winner, 49.3% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
CAR 0
8 in 10 outcomes between -18 and +17
Expected total
47
8 in 10 outcomes between 31 and 64
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameCHI 23 — 24 CARwin chance CHI 49.3% · CAR 47.9%total 47 (31–64)margin 0
CHI
Likely TD scorers
D'Andre Swift 28.2%
Jahdae Walker 26.7%
Colston Loveland 20.6%
Passing
Caleb Williams 166 pass yds (60–282)
Rushing leaders
D'Andre Swift 40 rush yds (11–83)
Kyle Monangai 26 rush yds (5–62)
Receiving leaders
Colston Loveland 4 rec · 40 yds
Luther Burden III 2 rec · 26 yds
Cole Kmet 1 rec · 10 yds
CAR
Likely TD scorers
Jalen Coker 26.7%
Tetairoa McMillan 25.9%
Bryce Young 24.8%
Passing
Bryce Young 161 pass yds (54–274)
Rushing leaders
Chuba Hubbard 24 rush yds (4–60)
Bryce Young 10 rush yds (0–36)
Receiving leaders
Jalen Coker 3 rec · 33 yds
Tetairoa McMillan 3 rec · 39 yds
Xavier Legette 2 rec · 15 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
47.9%
CAR to win
Sportsbook win chance
39.8%
CAR to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
+8.2 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
47 vs 47
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured — before kickoff.
Player projections · 16 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colston Loveland | CHI | projected active | 4 (1–7) | 40 (8–90) | 20.6% |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 33 (5–81) | 26.7% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | projected active | 3 (1–7) | 39 (7–88) | 25.9% |
| Xavier Legette | CAR | projected active | 2 (0–4) | 15 (0–51) | 11.0% |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | projected active | 2 (1–5) | 26 (0–70) | 8.0% |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 10 (0–41) | 23.8% |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 10 (0–41) | 17.3% |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | CAR | projected active | 1 (0–4) | 11 (0–42) | 16.0% |
| Tommy Tremble | CAR | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 11 (0–43) | 15.2% |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 7 (0–36) | 14.5% |
| Mitchell Evans | CAR | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 6 (0–36) | 7.8% |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 14 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 28.2% D'Andre Swift · CHI
- 26.7% Jalen Coker · CAR
- 26.7% Jahdae Walker · CHI
- 25.9% Tetairoa McMillan · CAR
- 24.8% Bryce Young · CAR
- 23.8% Chuba Hubbard · CAR
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 7087e0ea41c83e40
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- CAR @ GBThursday, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- ARI @ DALSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- ATL @ TBSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- BAL @ BUFSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- CLE @ PITSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- IND @ JAXSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LV @ NYJSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- MIN @ DETSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ CINSunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- LAC @ LARSunday, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ DENSunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- NE @ MIASunday, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
- PHI @ WSHSunday, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- CHI @ SEAMonday, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET