CHI @ CAR
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers, 2026-09-13. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 1 · Sunday, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · started
Chicago Bearsat
Carolina PanthersEXPERIMENTAL
Bank of America Stadium
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was CHI 59 – 37 CAR, from the Week 1 record.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Simulation
What our model expects
10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1
Projected score
CHI 23 — 24 CAR
the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Win chance
CHI 49.3% · CAR 47.9%
how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.8%
Total points (both teams)
47
8 in 10 simulations landed between 31 and 64
CAR winning margin
0
a minus means CHI wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -18 and 17
Model details
From the replay-validated Elo-logistic head, published exactly as evaluated on a held-out 2025 season — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to beat the market is made. Generated 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameCHI 23 — 24 CARwin chance CHI 49.3% · CAR 47.9%total 47 (31–64)margin 0
CHI
Likely TD scorers
D'Andre Swift 28.2%
Jahdae Walker 26.7%
Colston Loveland 20.6%
Passing
Caleb Williams 166 pass yds (60–282) · available role uncertain
Rushing leaders
D'Andre Swift 40 rush yds (11–83)
Kyle Monangai 26 rush yds (5–62)
Receiving leaders
Colston Loveland 4 rec · 40 yds
Rome Odunze 3 rec · 29 yds · questionable
Luther Burden III 2 rec · 26 yds
CAR
Likely TD scorers
Jalen Coker 26.7%
Tetairoa McMillan 25.9%
Bryce Young 24.8%
Passing
Bryce Young 161 pass yds (54–274)
Rushing leaders
Chuba Hubbard 24 rush yds (4–60)
Bryce Young 10 rush yds (0–36)
New arrivals · not in these numbers
Per game at their previous club — history, not a projection.
John Metchie III 3.2 rec · 28.4 yds/g at NYJ
Darren Waller 3 rec · 35.4 yds/g at MIA
Receiving leaders
Jalen Coker 3 rec · 33 yds
Tetairoa McMillan 3 rec · 39 yds
Xavier Legette 2 rec · 15 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Range
How wide the outcomes are
the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score
| Team | Low (10th) | Projected | High (90th) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 12 | 23 | 36 |
| Carolina Panthers | 11 | 24 | 36 |
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
47.9%
CAR to win
Sportsbook win chance
39.8%
CAR to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
+8.2 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
47 vs 47
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model has not been shown to beat the market.
Prices captured 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z — before kickoff.
Player projections · 16 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colston Loveland | CHI | projected active | 4 (1–7) | 40 (8–90) | 20.6% |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | projected active | 3 (1–6) | 33 (5–81) | 26.7% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | projected active | 3 (1–7) | 39 (7–88) | 25.9% |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | questionable | 3 (1–6) | 29 (2–76) | 13.3% |
| Xavier Legette | CAR | projected active | 2 (0–4) | 15 (0–51) | 11.0% |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | projected active | 2 (1–5) | 26 (0–70) | 8.0% |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 10 (0–41) | 23.8% |
| Cole Kmet | CHI | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 10 (0–41) | 17.3% |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | CAR | projected active | 1 (0–4) | 11 (0–42) | 16.0% |
| Tommy Tremble | CAR | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 11 (0–43) | 15.2% |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 7 (0–36) | 14.5% |
| Mitchell Evans | CAR | projected active | 1 (0–3) | 6 (0–36) | 7.8% |
New arrivals · not in the simulated numbers above
Per game at their previous team — history, not a projection.
| Player | Team | Availability | Last club | Per game (prior club) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Metchie III WR | CAR | active uncertain | NYJ · 9g | 3.2 rec · 28.4 yds |
| Darren Waller TE | CAR | active uncertain | MIA · 8g | 3 rec · 35.4 yds |
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 15 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 28.2% D'Andre Swift · CHI
- 26.7% Jalen Coker · CAR
- 26.7% Jahdae Walker · CHI
- 25.9% Tetairoa McMillan · CAR
- 24.8% Bryce Young · CAR
- 23.8% Chuba Hubbard · CAR
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Experimental
- Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.
Provenance
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v1
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 7087e0ea41c83e40
- generated
- 2026-09-13T13:48:01Z
- kickoff
- 2026-09-13T17:00Z
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: anytime-td-v1 calibration: held-out 2025 n=3965, beats both baselines; DNP settles void, so probabilities condition on playing
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
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