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MLB model board · 2026-10-24
1 MLB games · 38 model-vs-market reads
Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.
Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.
SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 24, 5:28 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
23
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
5
model vs market · context
Small gap
8
2 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
0
no projection emitted
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomaliesChandler SimpsonTB vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+7.9%
proj 1.24-240 · draftkings
Logan HendersonMIL vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppStrikeoutsOver 4.5+18%
proj 5.87-149 · draftkings
Brice TurangMIL vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+13.3%
proj 1.17-168 · draftkings
Taylor WallsTB vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+19.6%
proj 1.6-129 · draftkings
Christian YelichMIL vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+10.3%
proj 1.79-182 · draftkings
Cooper PrattMIL vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+9.4%
proj 1.71-185 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.TB vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+11.5%
proj 1.8-167 · draftkings
Jackson ChourioMIL vs TB
Gap 2.5–5 ppHitsOver 0.5+3.3%
proj 1.15-232 · draftkings
Filters · 38 of 38 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
American Family Field38 leansFinal · graded
TB@MIL
Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers
first pitch8:00 PM ET
American Family Field38 leansFinal · graded
TB@MIL
Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers
first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Strikeouts
Logan Henderson
MILvsTBPitcherStrikeouts
OVER4.5
Projection5.87
Edge+18%
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 6.1 K across 18 starts
-149 · draftkings
Drew Rasmussen
TBvsMILPitcherStrikeouts
OVER5.5
Projection5.91
Edge−2.9%
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 5.8 K across 30 starts
-143 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Taylor Walls
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.6
Edge+19.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.50 across 118 games
-129 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.04
Edge+15.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 148 games
+107 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.62
Edge+14.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.54 across 127 games
-114 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.89
Edge+14.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 104 games
+127 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+13.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 162 games
+105 · draftkings
Brice Turang
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+13.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 150 games
-168 · draftkings
William Contreras
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.12
Edge+12.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.24 across 147 games
+110 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.96
Edge+12.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.12 across 144 games
+116 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.8
Edge+11.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 73 games
-167 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.79
Edge+10.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 117 games
-182 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.06
Edge+9.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 154 games
-101 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.71
Edge+9.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.82 across 72 games
-185 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+9.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 72 games
-152 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
TBvsMILBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+9.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
-108 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.7
Edge+9.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 142 games
+123 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.65
Edge+8.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.09 across 155 games
+125 · draftkings
David Hamilton
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+8.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.38 across 114 games
-139 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
TBvsMILBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+7.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.18 across 148 games
-240 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
TBvsMILBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+7.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
-106 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsMILBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+7.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-141 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
TBvsMILBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+6.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 104 games
-174 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
TBvsMILBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+6.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 162 games
-182 · draftkings
David Hamilton
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge+4.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 114 games
-120 · draftkings
William Contreras
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+4.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 147 games
-175 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.5
Edge+4.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 144 games
-181 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+4.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 144 games
-158 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.15
Edge+3.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 127 games
-232 · draftkings
Brice TurangModel anomaly
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.54
Edge+23.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.39 across 150 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+119 · draftkings
Richie PalaciosModel anomaly
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.84
Edge+22.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 118 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-126 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
TBvsMILBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.93
Edge−2.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.17 across 154 games
+171 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
TBvsMILBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+2.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 142 games
-175 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsMILBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+2.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 155 games
-173 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 117 games
-149 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.06
Edge−1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 109 games
-186 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
MILvsTBBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.56
Edge+0.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 109 games
+114 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+0.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 144 games
-144 · draftkings
Home runs live on the Power Board
Open the MLB Power Board →
HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.