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MLB model board · 2026-10-19
1 MLB games · 37 model-vs-market reads
Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.
Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.
SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 19, 12:14 PM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
26
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
8
model vs market · context
Small gap
2
1 anomaly shown separately
Sample too small
0
no projection emitted
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomaliesChandler SimpsonTB vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+6%
proj 1.24-263 · draftkings
Richie PalaciosTB vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+15.8%
proj 1.84-163 · draftkings
Taylor WallsTB vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+17.6%
proj 1.6-140 · draftkings
Jose RamirezCLE vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+11.1%
proj 1.05-169 · draftkings
Steven KwanCLE vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+7.5%
proj 1.11-194 · draftkings
Brayan RocchioCLE vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+19.3%
proj 1.04-116 · draftkings
Junior CamineroTB vs CLE
Gap 2.5–5 ppHitsOver 0.5+3.2%
proj 0.97-210 · draftkings
Petey HalpinCLE vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+18.3%
proj 1.42-111 · draftkings
Filters · 37 of 37 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
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Density
Tropicana Field37 leansFinal · graded
CLE@TB
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays
first pitch8:08 PM ET
Tropicana Field37 leansFinal · graded
CLE@TB
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays
first pitch
8:08 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Strikeouts
Freddy Peralta
TBvsCLEPitcherStrikeouts
OVER4.5
Projection4.76
Edge+10.9%
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.9 K across 32 starts
+125 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Brayan Rocchio
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.04
Edge+19.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 153 games
-116 · draftkings
Petey Halpin
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.42
Edge+18.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.15 across 67 games
-111 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.6
Edge+17.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.50 across 118 games
-140 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+16.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 124 games
+115 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.84
Edge+15.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 118 games
-163 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.89
Edge+15%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 104 games
+130 · draftkings
Jo Adell
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.92
Edge+13.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 159 games
+127 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+13.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.27 across 104 games
-128 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+13%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 133 games
+117 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.8
Edge+11.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 73 games
+127 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.04
Edge+11.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 148 games
-112 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+11.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 124 games
-169 · draftkings
Petey Halpin
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+10.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.60 across 67 games
+105 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.83
Edge+10.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 150 games
+110 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
TBvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+10%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 104 games
-151 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+9.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 162 games
-113 · draftkings
Jo Adell
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge+9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 159 games
-150 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.7
Edge+8.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 142 games
+122 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
TBvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+8.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
-105 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+7.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 150 games
-194 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.45
Edge+6.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.61 across 123 games
-167 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.45
Edge+6.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 124 games
-158 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.06
Edge+6.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 154 games
-118 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
TBvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.18 across 148 games
-263 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
TBvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+5.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
-127 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
TBvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+4.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 142 games
-156 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+4.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-156 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+4.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 123 games
-131 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.65
Edge+4.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.09 across 155 games
+105 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+4.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 124 games
-127 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge+3.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 104 games
-107 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
TBvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+3.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 162 games
-210 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+2.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 133 games
-192 · draftkings
Brayan RocchioModel anomaly
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection2.3
Edge+25.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 153 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-138 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
TBvsCLEBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.93
Edge−2.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.17 across 154 games
+173 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+0.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 155 games
-188 · draftkings
Home runs live on the Power Board
Open the MLB Power Board →
HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.