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21–20 on 41 decisive picks · 51.2%2026-10-18
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MLB model board · 2026-10-18

1 MLB games · 38 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 18, 5:28 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
27
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
4
model vs market · context
Small gap
6
1 anomaly shown separately
Sample too small
0
no projection emitted
Strikeouts1 gap ≥ 5 pp·2 totalHits10 gap ≥ 5 pp·18 totalHits + Runs + RBIs16 gap ≥ 5 pp·18 total
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomalies
Chandler Simpson
Chandler SimpsonTB vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+6.2%
proj 1.24-260 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
Taylor WallsTB vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+19.4%
proj 1.6-130 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.TB vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+11.9%
proj 1.8-164 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
Jose RamirezCLE vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+9.5%
proj 1.05-181 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven KwanCLE vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+5.3%
proj 1.11-215 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan RocchioCLE vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+17.7%
proj 1.04-124 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam HicksTB vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+8.5%
proj 1.7-177 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior CamineroTB vs CLE
Gap 2.5–5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+4.4%
proj 0.97-199 · draftkings
Filters · 38 of 38 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Progressive Field38 leansFinal · graded

TB@CLE

Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians

first pitch
5:08 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Drew Rasmussen
probable · awayDrew Rasmussen
TB
Parker Messick
probable · homeParker Messick
CLE
Strikeouts
Parker Messick
Parker Messick
CLEvsTBPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER4.5
Projection5.46
Edge+11.8%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.0 K across 32 starts
-117 · draftkings
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen
TBvsCLEPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER5.5
Projection5.91
Edge+3.6%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.8 K across 30 starts
-110 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Taylor Walls
Taylor Walls
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.6
Edge+19.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.50 across 118 games
-130 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
Jose Ramirez
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+19.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 124 games
+126 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan Rocchio
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.04
Edge+17.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 153 games
-124 · draftkings
Petey Halpin
Petey Halpin
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.42
Edge+16%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.15 across 67 games
-122 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+13.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 133 games
+120 · draftkings
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.92
Edge+12.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 159 games
+122 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.04
Edge+12.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 148 games
-108 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+12.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.27 across 104 games
-135 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.8
Edge+11.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 73 games
-164 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+11%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 162 games
-105 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.83
Edge+11%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 150 games
+113 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
Jonny Deluca
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.89
Edge+10.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 104 games
+109 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
Jose Ramirez
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+9.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 124 games
-181 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+9.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-130 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.7
Edge+8.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 142 games
-177 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
Taylor Walls
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+8.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
-105 · draftkings
Petey Halpin
Petey Halpin
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+7.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.60 across 67 games
-106 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.06
Edge+7.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 154 games
-110 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+6.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 142 games
-145 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.65
Edge+6.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.09 across 155 games
+115 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+6.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.18 across 148 games
-260 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.45
Edge+5.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 124 games
-160 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
Jonny Deluca
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+5.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 104 games
-181 · draftkings
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge+5.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 159 games
-173 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.45
Edge+5.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.61 across 123 games
-176 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+5.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 150 games
-215 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+4.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 162 games
-199 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 133 games
-189 · draftkings
Ben Williamson
Ben Williamson
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.56
Edge+2.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 86 games
+124 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan RocchioModel anomaly
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.3
Edge+25%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 153 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-143 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.93
Edge−3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.17 across 154 games
+168 · draftkings
Ben Williamson
Ben Williamson
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.1
Edge−2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.40 across 86 games
+131 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 123 games
-144 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 124 games
-140 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge+1.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 104 games
-116 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge−0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 155 games
-191 · draftkings
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Home runs live on the Power Board

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HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.

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