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MLB model board · 2026-10-16

1 MLB games · 37 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 16, 5:28 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
25
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
5
model vs market · context
Small gap
5
2 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
0
no projection emitted
Strikeouts0 gap ≥ 5 pp·1 totalHits8 gap ≥ 5 pp·18 totalHits + Runs + RBIs17 gap ≥ 5 pp·18 total
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomalies
Chandler Simpson
Chandler SimpsonTB vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+7.9%
proj 1.24-239 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
Richie PalaciosTB vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+18%
proj 1.84-149 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
Taylor WallsTB vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+18.7%
proj 1.6-134 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
Jose RamirezCLE vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+7%
proj 1.05-202 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven KwanCLE vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+5.4%
proj 1.11-214 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan RocchioCLE vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+16.9%
proj 1.04-128 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior CamineroTB vs CLE
Gap 2.5–5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+3.5%
proj 0.97-208 · draftkings
Petey Halpin
Petey HalpinCLE vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+12.6%
proj 1.42-140 · draftkings
Filters · 37 of 37 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Progressive Field37 leansFinal · graded

TB@CLE

Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians

first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Nick Martinez
probable · awayNick Martinez
TB
probable · homeTBD
CLE
Strikeouts
Nick Martinez
Nick MartinezModel anomaly
TBvsCLEPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER2.5
Projection3.6
Edge+27.1%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 3.5 K across 31 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+108 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Taylor Walls
Taylor Walls
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.6
Edge+18.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.50 across 118 games
-134 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
Richie Palacios
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.84
Edge+18%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 118 games
-149 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan Rocchio
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.04
Edge+16.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 153 games
-128 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
Jonny Deluca
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.89
Edge+15.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 104 games
+135 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
Jose Ramirez
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+15.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 124 games
+108 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.04
Edge+13.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 148 games
-102 · draftkings
Petey Halpin
Petey Halpin
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.42
Edge+12.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.15 across 67 games
-140 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+11.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 162 games
-103 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+11.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 133 games
+110 · draftkings
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.92
Edge+10.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 159 games
+114 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.8
Edge+10%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 73 games
+118 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.7
Edge+9.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 142 games
+125 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+9.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.27 across 104 games
-151 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
Taylor Walls
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+9.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
+100 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
Jonny Deluca
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+9.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 104 games
-157 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.83
Edge+8.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 150 games
+104 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.65
Edge+8.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.09 across 155 games
+123 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+7.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.18 across 148 games
-239 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.06
Edge+7.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 154 games
-110 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
Jose Ramirez
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 124 games
-202 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
Richie Palacios
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+6.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
-121 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.45
Edge+6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.61 across 123 games
+133 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.45
Edge+5.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 124 games
-160 · draftkings
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge+5.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 159 games
-173 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+5.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 150 games
-214 · draftkings
Petey Halpin
Petey Halpin
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+4.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.60 across 67 games
-121 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+3.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-162 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+3.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 155 games
-162 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+3.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 162 games
-208 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 124 games
-133 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan RocchioModel anomaly
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.3
Edge+24.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 153 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-148 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+2.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 142 games
-173 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+2.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 133 games
-194 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.93
Edge−1.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.17 across 154 games
+180 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge−1.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 104 games
-129 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 123 games
-156 · draftkings
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HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.

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