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20–21 on 41 decisive picks · 48.8%2026-10-14
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MLB model board · 2026-10-14

1 MLB games · 37 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 14, 5:32 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
22
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
7
model vs market · context
Small gap
5
3 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
0
no projection emitted
Strikeouts2 gap ≥ 5 pp·3 totalHits9 gap ≥ 5 pp·17 totalHits + Runs + RBIs11 gap ≥ 5 pp·17 total
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomalies
Brice Turang
Brice TurangMIL vs LAD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+15.5%
proj 1.17-153 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie BettsLAD vs MIL
Gap 2.5–5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+4.7%
proj 1.25-246 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake BauersMIL vs LAD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+10.4%
proj 1.96-183 · draftkings
Will Smith
Will SmithLAD vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+8.9%
proj 1.07-192 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper PrattMIL vs LAD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+12.2%
proj 1.71-164 · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
Teoscar HernandezLAD vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+5.6%
proj 1.07-218 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson ChourioMIL vs LAD
Gap 2.5–5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+4.3%
proj 1.15-222 · draftkings
Andy Pages
Andy PagesLAD vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+7.5%
proj 1.08-191 · draftkings
Filters · 37 of 37 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium37 leansFinal · graded

MIL@LAD

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers

first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Robert Gasser
probable · awayRobert Gasser
MIL
Blake Snell
probable · homeBlake Snell
LAD
Strikeouts
Blake Snell
Blake Snell
LADvsMILPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER5.5
Projection4.95
Edge+10.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.1 K across 9 starts
+114 · draftkings
Blake Snell
Blake Snell
LADvsMILPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER6.5
Projection4.95
Edge+8.6%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.1 K across 9 starts
-164 · fanduel
Robert Gasser
Robert GasserModel anomaly
MILvsLADPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER3.5
Projection5.14
Edge+32.8%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.9 K across 21 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-106 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Joey Ortiz
Joey Ortiz
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.02
Edge+18.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 119 games
-119 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.62
Edge+16.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.54 across 127 games
-108 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+15.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 150 games
-153 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.08
Edge+14.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.87 across 153 games
+113 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.12
Edge+14.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.24 across 147 games
+116 · draftkings
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.33
Edge+13.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.26 across 133 games
-102 · draftkings
Enrique Hernandez
Enrique Hernandez
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.51
Edge+12.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.22 across 36 games
-139 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+12.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 72 games
-132 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.71
Edge+12.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.82 across 72 games
-164 · draftkings
Will Smith
Will Smith
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.09
Edge+11.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 73 games
-106 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.57
Edge+11.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.14 across 123 games
-129 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.96
Edge+10.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.12 across 144 games
-183 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+10%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 144 games
-124 · draftkings
Luis Lara
Luis Lara
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.51
Edge+9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.72 across 57 games
-166 · draftkings
Will Smith
Will Smith
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+8.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-192 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge+8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 153 games
-172 · draftkings
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+7.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 133 games
-191 · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
Teoscar Hernandez
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.99
Edge+6.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 125 games
-112 · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
Teoscar Hernandez
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+5.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 125 games
-218 · draftkings
Enrique Hernandez
Enrique Hernandez
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge+5.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.56 across 36 games
-114 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+4.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 147 games
-174 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.25
Edge+4.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 123 games
-246 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.5
Edge+4.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 144 games
-179 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.15
Edge+4.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 127 games
-222 · draftkings
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.72
Edge+3.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.03 across 153 games
-104 · draftkings
Luis Lara
Luis Lara
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge+3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 57 games
-129 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+2.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 144 games
-130 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice TurangModel anomaly
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.54
Edge+25.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.39 across 150 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+129 · draftkings
Joey Ortiz
Joey OrtizModel anomaly
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.97
Edge+20.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.64 across 119 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-151 · draftkings
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.71
Edge+2.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 2.33 across 135 games
-106 · draftkings
Andrew Vaughn
Andrew Vaughn
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.19
Edge+1.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 104 games
+140 · draftkings
Andrew Vaughn
Andrew Vaughn
MILvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.85 across 104 games
-144 · draftkings
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
LADvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 135 games
-187 · draftkings
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
LADvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 153 games
-213 · draftkings
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HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.

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