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MLB model board · 2026-10-13
1 MLB games · 38 model-vs-market reads
Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.
Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.
SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 13, 5:32 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
24
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
5
model vs market · context
Small gap
8
1 anomaly shown separately
Sample too small
0
no projection emitted
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomaliesTaylor WallsTB vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+16.8%
proj 1.6-145 · draftkings
Freddy PeraltaTB vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 ppStrikeoutsOver 3.5+19.3%
proj 4.76-123 · draftkings
Jose RamirezCLE vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+8%
proj 1.05-193 · draftkings
Steven KwanCLE vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+7%
proj 1.11-199 · draftkings
Brayan RocchioCLE vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+17.1%
proj 1.04-127 · draftkings
Junior CamineroTB vs CLE
Small gapHitsOver 0.5+1.4%
proj 0.97-229 · draftkings
Petey HalpinCLE vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+13.1%
proj 1.42-137 · draftkings
Jonny DelucaTB vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+9.1%
proj 0.95-157 · draftkings
Filters · 38 of 38 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Tropicana Field38 leansFinal · graded
CLE@TB
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays
first pitch8:00 PM ET
Tropicana Field38 leansFinal · graded
CLE@TB
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays
first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Strikeouts
Freddy Peralta
TBvsCLEPitcherStrikeouts
OVER3.5
Projection4.76
Edge+19.3%
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.9 K across 32 starts
-123 · draftkings
Parker Messick
CLEvsTBPitcherStrikeouts
OVER4.5
Projection5.46
Edge+5.7%
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 6.0 K across 32 starts
-150 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Brayan Rocchio
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.04
Edge+17.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 153 games
-127 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.6
Edge+16.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.50 across 118 games
-145 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.89
Edge+15%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 104 games
+130 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+14.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 124 games
+105 · draftkings
Petey Halpin
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.42
Edge+13.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.15 across 67 games
-137 · draftkings
Jo Adell
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.92
Edge+12.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 159 games
+124 · draftkings
Nick Fortes
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.32
Edge+12%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.44 across 101 games
-128 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+11.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 133 games
+110 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+11.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.27 across 104 games
-140 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.83
Edge+9.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 150 games
+108 · draftkings
Jo Adell
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge+9.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 159 games
-147 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
TBvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+9.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 104 games
-157 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+8.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 162 games
-114 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.8
Edge+8.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 73 games
+111 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 124 games
-193 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 150 games
-199 · draftkings
Petey Halpin
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+5.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.60 across 67 games
-115 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.65
Edge+5.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.09 across 155 games
+111 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.45
Edge+5.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.61 across 123 games
+131 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.06
Edge+5.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 154 games
-120 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.45
Edge+5.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 124 games
-165 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
TBvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+5.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
-118 · draftkings
Ryan Vilade
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.25
Edge+4.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 93 games
-158 · draftkings
Nick Fortes
TBvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.63
Edge+3.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
- SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 101 games
-110 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+2.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 124 games
-134 · draftkings
Ben Williamson
TBvsCLEBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.56
Edge+2.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 86 games
+124 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+2.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 133 games
-192 · draftkings
Brayan RocchioModel anomaly
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection2.3
Edge+23.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 153 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-154 · draftkings
Ben Williamson
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.1
Edge−3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.40 across 86 games
+128 · draftkings
Ryan Vilade
TBvsCLEBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge−2.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 93 games
-108 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge+1.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 104 games
-116 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
TBvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+1.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 162 games
-229 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+1.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 123 games
-150 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
TBvsCLEBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.93
Edge−1.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.17 across 154 games
+183 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+0.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-187 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+0.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 155 games
-187 · draftkings
Home runs live on the Power Board
Open the MLB Power Board →
HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.